REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Marc Faber – U.S. Housing Bull

Count Gloom, Boom & Doomer Marc Faber as one more in a rapidly expanding group of housing bulls, the long-time market analyst commenting in this CNBC story today that there is value in the southern states where property prices continue to fall.

“If you look at the supply of homes, new construction, and compare it to immigration into the United States, to the growth of the population, then these (southern) markets are very attractive from a longer term perspective,” Faber told Bernie Lo on CNBC’s Straight Talk.

Among the markets he pointed to were Atlanta, Phoenix and Miami. Faber said investors could earn a rental yield of 8 percent per year and buy homes in the south of the U.S. at a 40 to 50 percent discount to construction costs.

Faber said he went to see homes in Phoenix and Atlanta, and in some cases, U.S. homes were cheaper than those in Thailand, where he lives.

At the same time, the fact that people couldn’t get credit to buy homes in the U.S. was helping to boost the rental market, he added.

It is rather remarkable what is happening in a place like Atlanta. According to the latest Case-Shiller home price data, they’ve recently overtaken Cleveland and Phoenix while rapidly closing in on Las Vegas in what is, for some cities, an ongoing race to the bottom. Detroit remains the unquestioned leader in the group, however, extrapolating recent trends would see Atlanta claim that title by the end of the year.

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When Models Trump Common Sense

More evidence that U.S. economists are particularly ill-suited to run the U.S. economy comes via the fascinating exchange in recent days between St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard and a small army of bloggers with PhDs in economics, nearly all of the latter ganging up on Bullard after he suggested that the “output gap” theory for what ails the U.S. economy may be fundamentally flawed and that attempts to boost overall demand to close that gap through freakishly low interest rates and other super accommodative Federal Reserve policies might end up doing more harm than good.

Bullard threw a cat amongst the pigeons in this speech(.pdf) when he noted the following:

The recent recession has given rise to the idea that there is a very large “output gap” in the U.S. The story is that this large output gap is “keeping inflation at bay” and is fodder for keeping nominal interest rates near zero into an indefinite future. If we continue using this interpretation of events, it may be very difficult for the U.S. to ever move off of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. This could be a looming disaster for the United States. I want to now turn to argue that the large output gap view may be conceptually inappropriate in the current situation. We may do better to replace it with the notion of a permanent, one-time shock to wealth.

Recall that I’ve railed on this subject a number of occasions over the years, the last time being this offering from about six months ago when it was noted:

The theory posits that it is not important what level of overall demand an economy has reached or how it got there, but that, when all the wheels fall off the wagon as they did back in 2008, the imperative is for the government to somehow restore that level of demand. Otherwise, you get another Great Depression.

It makes no difference if, back in 2005, people making $40,000 a year were buying no money down $500,000 homes and then, after the home’s value went up to $600,000 in 2006, pulling out their $100,000 in brand new home equity to put in a pool, buy a motor home, and install big screen TVs in every room of the house because, once you reach a certain level of demand and it begins to drop like a rock because everyone has become indebted up to their eyeballs, it must be restored.

At that point, it simply becomes a question of how much taxes must be cut or how much money must be borrowed or printed to accomplish that goal.

Of course, I don’t have any models to back up the contention that an unusually large portion of economic output we saw in the middle of the last decade was “artificial” due to the housing bubble, but economists do have models, and that’s the crux of the problem.

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Friday Morning Links: Mortgage Deal Edition

Here are those mortgage deal links I mentioned in the Friday Morning Links post a couple hours ago. It was another one of those days when, in the process of collecting news stories for the links post, there was a virtual avalanche of reporting and opinions on what the Justice Department hath wrought with this deal.

A ‘deadbeat’ bailout – NY Sun
The Mortgage Deal: A Reality Check – NPR
Mortgage deal: What the critics say – CNN/Money
U.S. banks agree to $25 billion in homeowner help – Reuters
Settlement launches foreclosure reckoning – Washington Post
Why the Foreclosure Deal May Not Be So Hot After All – Taibblog
Why Millions Won’t Get Help From Big Mortgage Settlement – ProPublica
Top Twelve Reasons Why You Should Hate the Mortgage Settlement – Naked Capitalism
Foreclosure Settlement Falls Short, Still Worth the Wait: View – Bloomberg
Is The Foreclosure Settlement A Shadow Bailout For Broke California – Zero Hedge
What the foreclosure settlement means for you – CNN/Money
Mortgage Settlement and Negative Equity – Calculated Risk
Robo-Deal Is All About Lowering Mortgage Principal – CNBC
Banks Not Off Hook With $25B Mortgage Agreement – Bloomberg
Mortgage Plan Gives Billions to Homeowners, but With Exceptions – NY Times
Florida Homeowners Find Little to Cheer in Deal With ‘Gangsters’ – Bloomberg
Mortgage Deal Props Up California House of Cards – Bloomberg
Cramer: This Mortgage Settlement Is Huge – The Street
Foreclosure Deal to Spur U.S. Home Seizures – Bloomberg
The Mortgage Settlement Is Fine – DealBreaker

I’d be lying if I said I’d read all of these (or more than a couple for that matter), but I intend to take a look here this morning. Just based on the headlines, it would appear that the deal is getting a mixed reaction.

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Stockman on the Latest Bank Bailout Proposal

Former Reagan Administration budget director David Stockman doesn’t seem to think too much of the Obama Administration’s proposal to refinance underwater homeowners at up to 140 percent loan-to-value and he shared his views at The Daily Ticker.


Says Stockman:

This is ultimately, at the end of the day, a bailout for JP Morgan and Wells Fargo. They’re the big writers of second mortgages and home equity lines. Those – and there’s two or three or four hundred billion dollars in the top three or four banks – are in great jeopardy in the case of of homeowners who have mortgages, that are primary mortgages, that are way under water on primary mortgages and are likely to default or throw in the keys at some point down the road.

Good point…

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Tantalizing Housing Market Bottom Calls

While the debate about whether the U.S. housing market has hit bottom is certainly heating up, hopefully it won’t rise to the current temperature of the brouhaha over whether last Friday’s labor market report was good, bad, indifferent, or just an outright fabrication by the Obama administration in an increasingly contentious election year.

I don’t know about you, but I can’t tell the politics from the statistics when trying to make sense of  last Friday’s monthly jobs report and, at this point, I don’t care anymore.

As for the housing market, none other than Bill McBride at the wildly popular Calculated Risk blog weighed in on the subject yesterday declaring The Housing Bottom Is Here, a view that you find out at the end of the article isn’t quite as strongly held as you might think from just reading the title.

Bill notes there are two housing markets – new home construction and existing home sales – and, while the former has clearly made a bottom, the latter is likely to do so next month, though he qualifies that prediction with words like “I think that house prices are close to a bottom” and there being “a reasonable chance that the bottom is here”.

Now, caveats notwithstanding, this is still a big deal since Calculated Risk isn’t just an ordinary offering out there in the blogosphere. This particular blog happened to be calling the US housing market a bubble back when few had an inkling of the trouble to come and, for that reason alone, his is an opinion worth listening to.

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More Government Aid for Mortgages?

After many failed attempts, the Obama Administration takes another whack at bolstering the nation’s housing market, this time by offering $5 to $10 billion in government aid for underwater homeowners to refinance their mortgages as detailed in this WSJ report.

On the one hand, you have to feel for homeowners who have continued to make their mortgage payments despite the declining value of their home, but can’t refinance at today’s freakishly low rates. But, on the other hand, you have to scratch your head about the government intervening to create new loans for more than theses homes are worth.

Those worrying about the latter shouldn’t be too concerned, however, as not much is likely to happen in Congress during this increasingly heated election year.

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