The broad disagreement between Keynesian and Austrian economists on the subject of “liquidity traps” is discussed in this item over at The Freeman blog. It’s kind of an important question as it is fundamental to where the global economy finds itself today and whether the disease and the cure (i.e., excessive debt) can really be the same.

Under the Keynesian paradigm, if monetary authorities cannot stimulate private spending by forcing down interest rates, then the only other avenue is for the government to borrow and create new money, and spend on its own projects. If the first option does not work, the second, by definition, must.

(Murray) Rothbard (in The Great Depression) continued that the very things Keynesians claim will worsen an economic downturn – including falling wages and prices and liquidation of capital – actually are necessary to speed up the readjustment. The Austrian-Keynesian divide is fundamental on this point; Austrians not only reject the liquidity-trap paradigm, but also hold that the problem is boom-induced malinvested capital rather than idle capital.

The distinction is important because Austrians say the economy cannot recover until the malinvested capital is transferred to other uses, liquidated, or abandoned altogether. Keynesians, on the other hand, claim that if government can spend enough money, the same capital that Austrians say is malinvested will be returned to full employment.

I suppose that if you were trained as a Keynesian economist – having invested years of your life academically and then finding yourself surrounded by the same sort of thinking professionally – it’s the path of least resistance to just dismiss the Austrian viewpoint about malinvestment out of hand. But, for anyone who doesn’t have that bias already instilled, it’s hard to argue against the Austrian viewpoint since taking a contrary position would imply that what we’ve seen over the last decade was not malinvestment.

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The outlook gets more grim in the latest survey of aspiring Baby Boomer retirees, a full 25 percent now discounting the entire notion of a conventional retirement, in no small part due to the fact that they have little or no retirement savings and don’t expect that situation to change anytime soon. Details are in this story at the Associated Press.

The 77 million-strong generation born between 1946 and 1964 has clung tenaciously to its youth. Now, boomers are getting nervous about retirement. Only 11 percent say they are strongly convinced they will be able to live in comfort.

A total of 55 percent said they were either somewhat or very certain they could retire with financial security. Yet a substantial 44 percent express little or no faith they’ll have enough money when their careers end.

Excluding their homes, 24 percent say they have no retirement savings. Those with nothing include about 4 in 10 who are non-white, are unmarried or didn’t finish college.

At the other end, about 1 in 10 say they have banked at least $500,000. Those who have saved at least something typically have squirreled away $100,000, with about half putting away more than that and half less.

It would be interesting to see what that “Money from the sale of your house” response in the graphic above was five or six years ago. My guess is that the “Extremely/Very Important” response would have been some multiple of the current 17 percent.

I’ll never forget that time back in about 2006 when I raised the possibility of home prices falling significantly with my dentist as he was about to put both hands in my mouth. He pulled back and said, “They better not. My retirement is depending on it”. He’s probably had to rethink his golden years at least a little bit.

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In this New York Times story the other day, Floyd Norris noted the relationship between home prices and the Consumer Price Index’s measure of the same -  the nefarious “owners’ equivalant rent” – a subject that is near and dear to the heart of yours truly.

If you’re new to this blog and are wondering about the title of this post, or if you think you’ve seen that chart somewhere before, be advised that this is all familiar ground here, this subject being covered in this item from back in 2007, the Seeking Alpha version still ranking near the top on a Google search on the term “owners equivalent rent”, and the graphic going on to appear in Kevin Phillips’ 2008 book “Bad Money” as noted here.

60 Minutes Looks at Robo-Signing

Note to banks who, in the future, institute programs of massive paperwork fraud to expedite foreclosures – don’t foreclose on a lawyer who also happens to be a fraud investigator with a specialty in forged documents. That’s the lesson of this 60 Minutes story that features one Lynn Szymoniak, who is said to have trained FBI agents on how to detect forged documents, and then received some in the mail as part of the foreclosure proceedings on her home.

There are lots of interesting details in this report about how the fraud was actually perpetrated and, of course, the big banks don’t feel too bad about it because they just outsourced the work, all part of the evolving story of the early-21st century housing boom and bust that is likely to be with us for quite some time. Well, just the bust part now.

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Most Miserable in Phoenix

A new “Misery Index” is detailed in this item at the Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics Blog that, instead of adding just inflation and unemployment as was done in the 1970s, includes the increase in gas prices and the decrease in home prices. Based on this measure, misery in the U.S. has more than doubled in the past year to about 20, however, Phoenix and the Pacific Northwest are much worse.

Since this data set only includes the 20 cities for which Case-Shiller home price data is available, you’d probably get some remarkably low numbers in the upper MidWest where gas is still relatively inexpensive, the unemployment rate is well under the national average, and home prices are fairly steady.

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Case-Shiller Home Prices Down 3.1 Percent

Standard & Poor’s reports that the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell 3.1 percent from year ago levels, down 1.0 percent in January for the second month in a row as shown below. The 10-city index exhibited similar weakness with  back-to-back monthly declines of 0.9 percent, down 2.0 percent from a year ago.

Home prices fell in 13 of 20 cities in January, paced by a 3.4 percent decline in Minneapolis, a 2.4 percent drop in Seattle, and a decline of 1.9 percent in San Francisco. On a year-over-year basis, Phoenix saw the biggest drop, down 9.1 percent, followed by a decline of 8.1 percent in Detroit, and prices fell 7.8 percent in Portland.

The Washington D.C. housing market continues to boom, prices rising 0.1 percent in January and now 3.6 percent higher than a year ago.

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