REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Hat Trick!

[And so we begin with another dive back into the archives while my wife and I consume an inordinate amount of our precious fossil fuels during another trip to the East Coast. This time, writings from the month of April (and maybe early May) over the last six years will be summoned, perhaps offering up a new perspective on our current condition. This first item originally appeared here on April 9th, 2005 and includes now infamous comments by former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan - his lauding of advances in subprime lending...]

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Greenspan Week concluded on Friday when the Chairman spoke about Consumer Finance at the Community Affairs Research Conference in Washington. CNN/Money neatly summarized the message in their headline Greenspan: More credit is a good thing, but they left out the most important, and most disturbing parts of the speech.

For those who say that the Federal Reserve controls interest rates and liquidity only, and that it has little or no influence on where the money goes – read on. Amazingly, in this speech, sub-prime lending is presented as a great success story, not a potential problem – the potential problem, as identified here, is that too many people are being excluded from acquiring credit!

“Where once more-marginal applicants would simply have been denied credit, lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately. These improvements have led to rapid growth in subprime mortgage lending; indeed, today subprime mortgages account for roughly 10 percent of the number of all mortgages outstanding, up from just 1 or 2 percent in the early 1990s.”

So, Ameriquest is good for America – that’s the message.

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Two Approaches to Avoiding Foreclosure

Having lived nearly all my life in Pennsylvania and California prior to last year settling on Montana for the rest of it, I couldn’t help but notice two very different approaches the states have for helping homeowners avoid foreclosures. First, from MarketWatch comes this story about the remarkable success of a program that’s been in place for over 25 years:

As Republicans try to kill an Obama administration foreclosure prevention program that even Democrats agree hasn’t lived up to expectations, a program in Pennsylvania is being lauded for being simpler, cheaper and more effective.

It’s called the Pennsylvania Homeowners Emergency Mortgage Assistance Program and was established in 1984, long before the recent mortgage crisis. The program gives bridge loans to people who have recently lost their jobs. Loans do not accrue interest until the participant’s income is restored.

But, in the Golden State there is now a very different approach being talked about in Sacramento, details provided in this report at the Wall Street Journal Real Estate blog:

Some California lawmakers, supported by unions and left-leaning activist groups, have an idea to help stem the flow of foreclosures: Charge banks $20,000 every time they want to foreclose on a home.

The proposed new fee, which has been dubbed a “Foreclosure Mitigation Fee,” would offset the roughly $19,229 in costs for property maintenance, inspections, increased police and other public safety presence and lost property tax revenues from each blighted foreclosure.

My guess is that, if enacted, the California program will have poor results over the long-term, however, that hasn’t stopped the legislature before, so, there’s little reason to think that it would now.

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Wanna Buy Ron Paul’s House?

This item over at the Zillow Blog points to an online ad by Texas Congressman Ron Paul who, along with his wife, are selling their home in Lake Jackson, Texas after 42 years.

It doesn’t look like much from the front (see the photo at Zillow Blog) but it’s pretty big and has a nice pool in the back. The Paul’s are asking $325,000, however, the Zestimate is only $215,000, begging the question of whether anyone is really interested in paying six figures over the market value in order to sit in Ron Paul’s home office and think about Liberty or, alternatively, slide headfirst down into the swimming pool to dive for gold coins.

My guess is, yes.

Case-Shiller Home Prices Fall in February

Standard & Poor’s reported home prices continued to fall in February, down a whopping 1.1 percent on an unadjusted basis but just  0.2 percent lower when seasonal factors are taken into account. As would be expected, the year-over-year changes for the raw vs. adjusted data are almost identical – down 3.3 percent from  a year ago – but there’s quite a difference between the two data sets on a monthly basis as shown below.

Note: This chart should be alternating between two data sets – if it’s not go here.

Not surprisingly, the Washington D.C. area housing market is booming (right along with the level of deficit spending) and it was the only housing market to see price increases last month (up 0.2 percent SA) and from a year ago (up 2.7 percent). Elsewhere, home values are about back to the 2009 low with prices in Atlanta, Cleveland, Las Vegas, and Detroit now below the level seen in 2000 with Phoenix likely to join that group in the months ahead.

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New Home Sales Rise 11%, So What?

The Commerce Department reported(.pdf) that new home sales rose 11.1 percent in March, spurring a number of hopeful headlines in the mainstream financial media and no doubt giving a goodly number of realtors and homebuilders a dash of renewed vigor, but, they might want to keep the bubbly stored safely away.

The increase to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 300,000 units last month after a drop of 13.5 percent in February leaves the current sales rate just 11 percent above the all-time low reached in, well, February. This puts the sales total a full 78 percent below the peak reached back in 2005 and about one-third the pre-housing bubble average level.

The inventory of unsold homes fell from 8.2 months of supply in February to 7.3 months in March, but, does anyone really care anymore?

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Existing Home Sales Rise 3.7 Percent

The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes rose 3.7 percent last month, from an upwardly revised annual rate of 4.92 million in February to a rate of 5.10 million in March, amid a record 35 percent all-cash purchases and the highest share of distressed sales in almost two years at 40 percent.

Tighter lending standards continue to make it difficult for prospective buyers as falling home prices and historically low mortgage rates have combined to push the trade group’s housing affordability index to just 13 percent of gross income, its lowest level in 41 years.

The median home price rose 2.2 percent in March to $159,600, however, home values have fallen 5.9 percent from a year ago, consistent with most other home price indexes.

The inventory of unsold homes rose 1.1 percent to 3.549 million units, but the increased sales volume pushed the months of supply metric down from 8.5 months to 8.4 months, still more than 50 percent above normal, that is, if anyone still remembers what “normal” is for the U.S. housing market.

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