Chowchilla on the Brink

It seems that another California city is in financial trouble. This time it’s Chowchilla, a town that sits along the 99 Freeway that I remember passing by dozens and dozens of times when we used to live in the southern part of the state and visit in the north. It seems that, among many other problems, they went a little overboard a few years back in borrowing money to build a new city hall as detailed in this story at the Fresno Bee.

Things now are so bad that officials in Chowchilla, population 19,000, are discussing the possibility of disincorporating and turning over all services to Madera County. No California city has disincorporated in at least several decades.

The state controller’s office, meanwhile, says it’s monitoring the situation and has made several calls to city staff to see how it can help.

Chowchilla’s finance chief, Wayne Padilla, said the city is running out of ideas for how to make cuts, though one possibility remains: Move everyone out of the $8 million City Hall — a spacious and aesthetically pleasing building that opened in 2007 to much fanfare — and into cramped quarters in the police department to save on energy costs. The City Hall building would go dark.

Even if the city did that, the 16,000-square-foot building still would be a drain on the budget. Chowchilla must make annual payments of $367,000 on the City Hall bond each year until 2035 – an expense that consumes almost 10% of the city’s general fund budget.

This year, the city used all of its bond reserve fund to make its payment — a practice known in the financial world as a technical default.

It’s been years since we were through that area, but, as I recall, they had a nice outlet mall that always seemed to be a little out of place, that is, located in the middle of California’s Central Vally where all you usually see are cows and the occasional prison.

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Z1 Report: Stocks Rise, Real Estate Falls

The Federal Reserve’s Q3 Flow of Funds report tells a very familiar story about what happened during the third quarter – stocks rose while home prices fell. This added up to a net increase of about $1 trillion in the value of  household assets, however, the nation is still about $10 trillion back of where it was in 2007, when it still looked as though an economy based on asset prices that never stop rising was still viable.

The central bank data puts the combined increase in the value of corporate equities, mutual fund shares, and pension fund reserves at about $2 trillion while they see home values having fallen by about $700 billion.

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Home Prices Double-Dipping at Zillow

In the latest report from Zillow, the data shows a 0.6 percent drop in home prices in October, down 5.0 percent from a year ago, confirmation of what nearly every other home price index is also indicating – a double-dip in home prices is now well underway.

Interestingly, author Stan Humphires notes that,  from the peak, home values are now down about 26 percent, the same as during the Great Depression. It’s important to remember, however, that homeownership is now almost double what it was back then – almost 70 percent versus closer to 40 percent in the 1930s – and most of the foreclosures that occurred during that time were farms, not private residences.

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The South African Housing Bubble?

A good summary of global house prices over the years is available in this story at The Economist’s Free Exchange blog that includes a neat interactive graphic, a screen shot of which appears below using the longest time frame available.

Who’d have guessed that home prices in South Africa have risen more than anywhere else over the last seven years? Not surprisingly, Hong Kong sits directly below South Africa in the right-most portion of the chart followed by Belgium, Australia, New Zealand, and Sweden.

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HAFA Likely to be Worse than HAMP

The WSJ Real Estate blog reports that the government’s HAFA (Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives) program could be even less successful than HAMP (Home Affordable Modification Program) as less than 350 deals have gone through in about five months.

It may be too early to pass judgment on this effort to avoid foreclosures by providing incentives to the involved parties to do a short sale instead but, given the government’s track record in providing assistance to a very troubled housing market, probably not.

Many real-estate agents say banks have largely ignored the program and that they are applying it unevenly. “Banks are initiating the HAFA transaction and then after three weeks they say, ‘Naw, sorry, you didn’t qualify,’” says Greg Markov, a Phoenix real-estate agent. “That three weeks is a huge pain. You wasted all this time.

Industry officials, meanwhile, say that HAFA has been hindered by extensive documentation requirements and restrictive qualification guidelines. A homeowner that’s already relocated isn’t HAFA eligible, for example, and neither are borrowers that apply within 60 days of a foreclosure date.

The program is also voluntary, which may limit participation from second-lien holders and mortgage insurance companies that see a financial reason to avoid a short sale that requires them to forgo the opportunity to seek deficiencies against borrowers.

During our six month long short sale ordeal (see here for full details), HAFA cost us at least a month of that time as the bank put our “file” into the HAFA process when the listing agent knew from the very beginning that the second lien holder was not going to participate in that kind of a deal. Anyone trying to buy a short sale property (particularly with a listing agent who is new to this sort of thing) is advised to ask HAFA questions up front.

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Washington D.C. Housing Market Thrives

Probably the most grating aspect of the recent history of home prices around the country (at least, to me) is that, due in large part to the rise in government bailouts and federal deficit spending, the greater Washington D.C. area has been the best housing market for some time now, holding on to its housing bubble gains better than any other region as shown below in the latest data for the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes.

And the home price gains near the nation’s capital just keep on coming, the September data showing an increase of 0.2 percent while every other region (except basket case Las Vegas) showed price declines. As is clear to see above, the change in fortune for Washington area home prices began when the bailouts/stimulus began in earnest (i.e., late-2008/early-2009) and, in recent months, the home price index is further separating itself from all others.

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