REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

The Fed’s Ulterior Motive in REO Rentals

The Federal Reserve’s new white paper about the U.S. housing market released just yesterday – The U.S. Housing Market: Current Conditions and Policy Considerations (.pdf) – contains the following paragraph and a good deal of supporting rationale for their  recommendation to sell GSE-owned foreclosed properties in bulk to investors so that they can be converted in bulk into rentals.

The price signals in the owner-occupied and rental housing markets–that is, the decline in house prices and the rise in rents–suggest that it might be appropriate in some cases to redeploy foreclosed homes as rental properties. In addition, the forces behind the decline in the homeownership rate, such as tight credit conditions, are unlikely to unwind significantly in the immediate future, indicating a longer-term need for an expanded stock of rental housing.

While, on the surface, this makes a good deal of sense after the nation painfully learned a few years ago that home ownership wasn’t what it was cracked up to be and, ever since, home prices have been falling while demand for rental properties has grown, a massive conversion of REO properties into rental properties would also have the convenient side effect of helping the Fed keep inflation low, giving it more leeway to print up another trillion dollars or so for the greater good, should the need arise.

How so?

Recall that, part of the reason that the housing bubble grew so big was that the inflation statistics include rental prices as a proxy for the cost of home ownership, a change that was made all the way back in 1983 and that forever changed how inflation is reported and how high home prices could rise (see this Seeking Alpha article on the subject from a few years back that still ranks quite high on a search of “owners’ equivalent rent”).

After years of being subdued because everyone wanted to own a home (and nearly did), lately, rents have been rising – up about 2 percent over the last year – and, since rents account for 40 percent of the Fed’s “core” inflation rate, you can see why lower rental prices might be in the central bank’s interest.







Living Free for Years

A week or two ago it was learned that it takes nearly 1,000 days for a distressed property to wind its way through the foreclosure process in New York and New Jersey and, the assumption at the time was that these were extreme outliers … apparently not.

A CNN/Money report today indicates that in some areas it takes even longer and that the average duration is much higher than I would have guessed.

Nationwide, the average time it takes to process a foreclosure — from the first missed payment to the final foreclosure auction — has climbed to 674 days from 253 days just four years ago, according to LPS Applied Analytics.

It takes much longer than that in Florida, where the process averages 1,027 days, nearly 3 years. In D.C., foreclosure averages 1,053 days and delinquent borrowers in New York often stay in their homes for an average of 906 days.

And while some borrowers are looking for ways to make good with lenders and get their homes back, many aren’t paying a dime. Nearly 40% of homeowners in default have not made a payment in at least two years, according to LPS.

Many of these homeowners are staying in their homes based on a technicality. There is rarely any dispute over whether or not they have stopped paying their mortgage, said David Dunn, a partner at law firm Hogan Lovells in New York, who represents banks and other financial institutions in foreclosure cases.

“In my experience, they never say, ‘I’m not delinquent’ or ‘I want to pay my bill but I’m confused over who to send it to,’ or ‘Oh my God, you mean I didn’t pay my mortgage?’ They’re not in technical default. They’re in default because they’re not paying,” he said.

The robo-signing debacle seems to have been a major factor in extending how long it takes to foreclose on a property and a thousand dollars spent on an attorney appears to be worth many times that amount in mortgage/rent payments that never have to be made.

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Home Price Declines Over the Years

Following yesterday’s Case-Shiller report on falling home prices, Zillow provided their take on where property values have been heading in this story that included the sobering chart below, little comfort being provided in the fact that home value declines are slowing.

Of course, it would likely be a very different situation if mortgage rates weren’t at freakishly low levels and the backlog of millions of distressed properties moved a little quicker through the foreclosure process, but, that’s what passes for banking policy in the aftermath of the greatest financial bubble that no one saw coming.

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Case-Shiller Home Price Declines Accelerate

Standard & Poor’s reported(.pdf) that the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell 1.2 percent from September to October, its sharpest decline in a year, while the 10-City index fell 1.1 percent. Seasonally adjusted data was slightly better, the two indexes falling 0.6 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.

On a year-over-year basis, the 20-City index is now down 3.4 percent and the 10-City index has fallen 3.0 percent, however, due to price increases earlier in the year, these are both an improvement from the annual rate of decline reported last month.

Nineteen of the 20 cities saw price declines in October with drops of 1.0 percent or more in 11 cities paced by a plunge of 5.0 percent in Atlanta and 3.3 percent in Detroit. Even home values in Washington D.C. fell, down 0.3 percent for the month, but this area continues to lead all others since the housing bubble burst with an annual gain now at 1.3 percent.

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About Those 4 Million Delinquent Mortgages

After all the better-than-expected news about the U.S. economy reported in recent months, word that the massive backlog of delinquent home loans is about to begin pushing its way through the system again in the months ahead should temper some of the enthusiasm about the U.S. economy in the year ahead. Diana Olick has all the details about the latest foreclosure report from RealtyTrac in this story at CNBC today.

Despite a seasonal slowdown in overall foreclosure activity, and a process still bogged down and backed up by the “robo-signing” processing scandal, the U.S real estate market is about to be hit by another surge of bank repossessions, according to a new report from the online foreclosure sale site RealtyTrac. As banks resubmit millions of documents and courts begin hearing cases again, the backlog of over four million delinquent loans will start surging through the pipeline again.

“November’s numbers suggest a new set of incoming foreclosure waves, many of which may roll into the market as REOs [bank repossessions] or short sales sometime early next year,” said James Saccacio, co-founder of RealtyTrac. “Overall foreclosure activity is down 14 percent from a year ago, the smallest annual decrease over the past 12 months, and some bellwether states such as California, Arizona and Massachusetts actually posted year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity in November.”

Other states, like New York and New Jersey, are still seeing huge delays in the foreclosure process–986 and 984 days respectively, says RealtyTrac, but they too are starting to ramp up, as various moratoria have been lifted and judges have made rulings that will kick-start the process.

I remember when we’d shake our heads in disbelief when the average time to foreclose on a property reached a year. Amazingly, it’s nearly three years now in some places…

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The World’s Still-Inflated Housing Bubbles

Checking in on the housing bubbles in Australia, Canada, and China…

Word came in this report this morning from The Age in Australia that Economist Steve Keen of Debt Deflation fame is garnering new respect as home prices there are set to drop by about four percent this year with even lower prices in store for 2012.

No news stories about home prices in Canada have crossed my computer screen lately, but, my guess is that, with the global economy and financial markets teetering, there are a lot of new home buyers and investors who are rethinking their purchase decision.

In China, we see shades of the U.S. housing bubble circa 2007 as the LA Times reports the natives are really getting restless, recent homebuyers now protesting outside of the offices of builders who have slashed prices to spur sluggish sales.

Home prices nationwide declined in November for the third straight month, according to an index of values in 100 major cities compiled by the China Index Academy, an independent real estate firm. Average prices in the Shanghai area are down about 40% from their peak in mid-2009, to about $176,000 for a 1,000-square-foot home.

Sales have plummeted. In Beijing, nearly two years’ worth of inventory is clogging the market, and more than 1,000 real estate agencies have closed this year. Developers who once pre-sold housing projects within hours are growing desperate. A real estate company in the eastern city of Wenzhou is offering to throw in a new BMW with a home purchase.

The swift turnaround has stunned buyers such as Shanghai resident Mark Li, who thought prices had nowhere to go but up. The software engineer closed on a $250,000, three-bedroom apartment in August, only to watch weeks later as the developer slashed prices 25% on identical units to attract buyers in a slowing market.

Outraged, Li and hundreds of others who paid full price trashed the sales office, scuffled with employees and protested for three days before police broke up the demonstration. Walking away now would mean losing the $75,000 down payment that he borrowed from his working-class parents.

“I still haven’t told them,” Li, 29, said of his home’s plummeting value. “It will just make them worry, and it’s already too late.”

This is well worth reading in its entirety to better understand two fundamental differences between the U.S. and China and how their outcome might be very different than ours.

First, this was a government-engineered slowdown that looks to be accomplishing its objective, however, the fear is that it could be too successful (in which case, the government will likely reverse course). Second, home purchases in China include hefty down payments, unlike the NINJA loans and their ilk  that were common when the U.S. bubble burst.

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