Hedge Funds Bounce Back in 2012

Reuters reports that it’s been a good first month of the year for hedge funds as last year’s losers are turning into this year’s winners following the reversal of the late-2011 decline in early-2012. Even John Paulson seems to be doing well lately, his Advantage Plus Fund already up 5 percent this year after tumbling more than 50 percent last year.

This graphic from the Economist’s Daily Chart depicts how trying it’s been recently, particularly last year when many investors were probably wondering why they were paying big fees to hedge fund managers who underperformed a low cost stock index fund.

Interestingly, according to the Reuters story, after plunging 42 percent last year, the $116 million Henderson European Absolute Return fund claims the top spot in performance this year with a gain of 14 percent through late-January. This compares to a gain of almost 12 percent for the Iacono Research model portfolio so far in 2012 after a decline of 5 percent last year, the same as the average hedge fund performance in 2011.

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Bernanke’s Disingenuous Message to Savers

Skip to about the 28 minute mark in the video below of Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke’s press conference yesterday and you’ll hear the confusing, not-very-helpful message the central bank has for savers in our super-low interest rate environment.

Basically, his answer to Gregg Robb of Marketwatch about the difficulties being experienced by fixed-income investors makes no sense as he confuses conservative investments with riskier ones in the rather disingenuous answer excerpted below:

In the case of savers, we think about all these issues and we certainly recognize that the low interest rates we’re using to try to stimulate investment and expansion of the economy also pose a cost on savers who have a lower return. And we do hear about that obviously and we do think about that.

I guess the response I would make is that the savers in our economy are dependent on a healthy economy in order to get adequate returns, in particular, people who own stocks, corporate bonds, as well as Treasury securities. And if our economy is in really bad shape, then they’re not going to get good returns on those investments.

So, I think what we need to do is, when the economy goes into a very weak situation, then low interest rates are needed to help restore the economy to something closer to full employment and increase growth and that, in turn, will lead ultimately to higher returns across all assets for savers and investors.

That’s little comfort for all the risk-averse savers out there just looking to get more than one percent on a certificate of deposit when the inflation rate is running at three or four times that amount (by government measure, your results may be much higher).

Another View of Stocks in 2011

In their latest Daily Chart, The Economist has another one of those “Stocks in 2011″ summary graphics that, despite all the buzz about large-cap stocks in the U.S., reinforces the point that it was a rather dismal year for equities around the world.

Don’t get too excited about equity markets in Venezuela – inflation there is running at 29 percent, a level that, according to The Economist’s weekly Output, Prices, and Jobs makes them an extreme outlier in a world of generally low reported inflation. Only two other countries have double-digit inflation – VietNam at 18 percent and Pakistan at 10 percent.

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Was 2011 a Good Year for Stocks?

Much was made of the major U.S. stock market indexes finishing in positive territory for the year, however, it was a very different story elsewhere in the world as indicated in red below via the December 31st print edition of the Wall Street Journal.

While the S&P500 and Nasdaq indexes both finished slightly in the red, the widely held ETFs that track them produced modest gains while the big stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a 5.5 percent improvement or, an 8.1 percent return including dividends.

Fear and the Gold Price

The Economist has a set of nine charts that depict what happened in financial markets in 2011 as part of their Daily Chart section today. Below are the last two in the series showing the S&P500 Volatility Index atop selected commodity prices.

Clearly, there’s a pretty good correlation between volatility in U.S. stocks and the gold price, but, as shown above, the former follows the latter – maybe not what you might think at first. Most of the other charts are related to the global economy, credit and currency markets where there are no doubt more relationships to explore, such as the coincident peaks in late-April for the euro and oil (and silver).

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Well, That Was Interesting

The next day or so should be fairly exciting for financial markets as developments in the on-again, off-again rescue of the European public debt market reach some sort of a climax. Like most other assets, gold has become quite volatile as of late, surging by almost $20 an ounce earlier today and then diving about $25 an ounce in short order after the European Central Bank announced another interest rate cut.

The gold price is rebounding a bit now and commodity prices are mostly positive, but equity markets appear headed lower as U.S. markets prepare to open. A seat belt and a bottle of Maalox might not be a bad idea for the next 30 hours or so.

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