Stocks | - Part 2

Two-Term Presidents and U.S. Stocks

Another fine infographic over at the Visual Capitalist reminds us of how the last few eight-year stock cycles coinciding with two-term presidents haven’t worked out so well toward the end of those periods, that is, unless you’re a short-seller.

Of course, the main subject for the infographic is gold as an investment and it’s worth pointing out (as many others have already done so far this year) that the yellow metal is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do at times like this.

Gundlach on the Fed

From this story at Barron’s detailing the views of DoubleLine Capital bond fund king Jeffrey Gundlach at a recent conference come these gems about the central bank’s group therapy session now underway in snow covered Washington D.C.

“Frozen in their thinking”

“The Fed really needs to dial down the rhetoric or the markets will humiliate them with further declines”

The Fed’s models are based on “GDP forecast that has been wrong for years — it’s like the triumph of hope over experience, like a second marriage.”

“What the heck are these people doing?”

“Whistling past the graveyard.”

Of course, it’s all about that little squiggle to the right in the chart below (via this item at Quartz) and, more importantly, the possibility that more squiggles appear.

Boy, that 2004-2006 Greenspan “baby-steps” campaign is a thing of beauty. No?

Gallows Humor: 2016 Stock Market Edition

Philip van Doorn at Marketwatch has compiled a set of ten hilarious cartoons about the recent stock market swoon with the one below, understandably,  topping the list:

Sadly, this probably describes the experience of a lot of retail investors who, over the years, have paid too much attention to the day-to-day developments and suffered as a result.

Ray Dalio on Downside Risks

Ray Dalio, head of Bridgewater Associates and their $155+ billion in assets under management, shares a few thoughts in Davos about the state of the global financial system and the Federal Reserve’s next move.

To wit:

…the risks are asymmetric on the downside, because asset prices are comparatively high at the same time there’s not an ability to ease. That asymmetric risk exists all around the world. So every country in the world needs an easier monetary policy … I think the next major move in Fed policy will be toward quantitative easing, not toward a tightening.

Might Now Be a Good Time to Panic?

It looks like it’s going to be another miserable day for the stock market due to – Surprise! – tumbling oil prices, China concerns, and mounting evidence that U.S. earnings season is going to be quite disappointing.

From the Gary Varvel collection at TownHall – alternatively…

Also on the bright side, Blackstone chief Stephen Schwarzman thinks this is just a correction and Ken Rogoff says it’s time to consider negative interest rates here in the U.S.

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