The Mess That Greenspan Made - Part 10

Thursday Morning Links

MUST READS
Brazil’s Dilma Rousseff to face impeachment trial – BBC
Defying debt fears, China bets on infrastructure, property – Reuters
BTIM: ‘Miracle’ needed to save the world, as central banks can’t – SMH
The Privilege of Buying 36 Rolls of Toilet Paper at Once – The Atlantic
George Zimmerman to auction off gun he used to kill Trayvon Martin – Quartz
Trump Policy Advisor Promises an Astounding $7 Trillion Surplus – Fiscal Times
Trump and GOP leaders might never be on the same page – Washington Post
Facebook Dislikes Conservatives, and That’s OK – Bloomberg
Clinton Son-In-Law Shuts Losing Greece Hedge Fund – Barron’s
What Clinton should really fear about Trump – The Week
Bernie Sanders, the Zombie Candidate – Politico
This Isn’t a Game – Commentary

MARKETS/INVESTING
Stocks: 5 things to know before the open – CNN/Money
Weak retail earnings blow hole in bull thesis – USA Today
Wall Street’s Dealmaking Goes From Boom to Bust in a Few Months – Bloomberg
Outlook for oil brightens as output disruptions erode surplus: IEA – Reuters
The Frogs Are Boiling Again—–Why Wall Street Stays In The Pot – Contra Corner
Investors Fleeing $9 Trillion of Negative Yields Fuel Bond Binge – Bloomberg
Something dangerous is lurking below the market’s surface – MarketWatch
Gold slips after best day since April as dollar strengthens – Reuters
2016 gold price rally’s all about ETFs, hedge funds – Mining.com
Goldman’s Optimistic Call for Gold to Drop just 10% – WSJ

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
Pew study sees a shrinking middle class in major US cities – AP
The middle class is shrinking just about everywhere in America – Washington Post
Hong Kong first-quarter economic growth likely weakest in 4 years – Reuters
Chinese Inflation Is More Than China And More Than Inflation – Alhambra Partners
Australian PM Turnbull named in Panama Papers, denies wrongdoing – Reuters
NGO: Chicken Industry Workers Wear Diapers Because Bosses Allow No Breaks – Vice News
Hong Kong Property Market in ‘Free Fall’: Hayman’s Bass – Bloomberg
Did distressed homeowners ruthlessly default? – O.C. Housing News
A Central Banker Officially Loses It: “We Are Magic People” – Zero Hedge
Is the Fed Behind the Curve? – PIIE

 

There was neither the time nor the desire for an exhaustive analysis, but it didn’t take long to turn up the chart below from the Fed’s Survey of Consumer Finances that seems to contradict the conclusion of former Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota (from this Bloomberg story) that, from 2010 to 2013 “the rich didn’t fare particularly well” .

I guess it just depends on how rich you are and, just speculating here, but it’s likely that the top curve above would show an even bigger divergence from the others the more you separate the richest of the top 10 percent from the rest of that group.

Wednesday Morning Links

MUST READS
Gold has entered a new bull market: JPMorgan – CNBC
Canada fires: Alberta oil firms to restart production – BBC
Oil price to be dragged down by more Saudi pumping – The Week
Saudia Arabia and Iran: The Cold War of Islam – Spiegel
What’s driving Saudi Arabia’s shake-up — and it’s not just oil – MarketWatch
Six previously impossible things for our besieged world economy – Telegraph
People are stressed about retirement. Is it because they aren’t saving? – Bloomberg
China’s Government Says It’s Over Debt-Fuelled Growth – Fortune
Will a President Trump Still Be the King of Debt? – Bloomberg
Only 2 Presidential Candidates Have a Plan for Coal Country – The Nation
Mark Cuban: Trump supporters don’t care about the issues – CNBC
The Myth of the Ignorant Voter – Bloomberg

MARKETS/INVESTING
Stocks: 5 things to know before the open – CNN/Money
The Long March of China Bears – Bloomberg
Stocks look to shift gears from stall speed – USA Today
The Incredible Shrinking World of Investments – US News
Investors shouldn’t panic about the rising dollar—just yet – MarketWatch
BofA: ‘Vortex of Negative Headlines’ to Send Stocks Plummeting – Bloomberg
Inflationist Gold Bugs Have Driven The Rally – TalkMarkets
Gold climbs off 2-week low on dollar, shares retreat – Reuters
Central banks are loading up on gold – Business Insider
Singer Says Gold Rally Just Beginning, Goldman Sees Losses – Bloomberg

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
Government Must Play a Role Again in Job Creation – NY Times
Long-Term Trends in Employment by Age Group – Advisor Perspectives
Three More Signs Smartphone Downturn Going From Bad to Worse – Bloomberg
UK industry in recession for third time in eight years – BBC
MPC: Brexit ‘will force rates up to 3.5pc within 18 months’ – Telegraph
Germany’s Middle Class Is Endangered, Too – Bloomberg
Eurozone recovery wilts as sugar rush fades, deflation lurks – Telegraph
GMO’s Grantham: Housing ‘Echo Bubble’ May Prompt New Crisis – Think Advisor
Home loan demand falls overall, but investors return to property market – ABC.net
The Fed Made the Poor Poorer – Bloomberg

 

Interregnum Cometh

Mark Hulbert over at Marketwatch correctly points out that heightened uncertainty associated with quadrennial presidential elections isn’t a real good thing for equity markets as equity markets famously hate uncertainty in any form.

The elections of 2000 and 2008 weren’t particularly good for stocks, though it took some time for the turn-of-the-century market rout to fully develop. The more interesting example of the deleterious effect of interregnums is that of 1932, that is, when FDR took over after Hoover and, between the election results and the new administration taking charge, the financial world almost came to an end.

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Tuesday Morning Links

MUST READS
Facebook: Political bias claim ‘untrue’ – BBC
The Saudi oil ministry’s new look – Washington Post
As trouble piles up, online lenders pull back – LA Times
World’s Most Extreme Speculative Mania Unravels in China – Bloomberg
China Trade And The Inevitability Of Systemic Reset – Alhambra Partners
Why China’s Debt Crisis Will Differ From Japan’s – Epoch Times
Britain must back the IMF to free Greece of its punishing austerity – Telegraph
‘Everyone’s outraged’: angry Greeks foresee Grexit and drachma’s revival – Guardian
The real reason Wall Street is rooting for Hillary Clinton – MarketWatch
Congressional Republicans grapple with new Trump reality – AP
Trump: US will never have to default, it prints money – CNBC
Mr. Trump Goes to Washington – Bloomberg

MARKETS/INVESTING
Stock futures higher as oil rebounds – USA Today
Oil, dollar could have stocks over a barrel – CNBC
I dissected the S&P 500, and this is what I found – MarketWatch
Carl Icahn Is Betting On An Imminent Market Collapse – Zero Hedge
Investors to Wall Street: We’re not buying your bull anymore – CNBC
The warning signs are all over commodities right now – MarketWatch
These hedge-fund billionaires were the hottest hands in 2015 – CNBC
Gold near 2-week low, steady dollar cap gains – Reuters
Hedge Funds’ Gold Positioning Near All-Time Highs – Kitco
Commercial Traders Are Very Short Gold & Silver – Gavekal Capital

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
U.S. Small-Business Owners’ Optimism Levels Off – Gallup
Official “Labor Market Conditions” Give off Warning Signs – Wolf Street
Russian economy may return to growth by end of 2017 – EBRD president – RT News
UK’s trade deficit with EU jumps to record high ahead of Brexit vote – Telegraph
Dead-of-Night Reversal Puts Brazil Impeachment Back on Track – Bloomberg
China April inflation data sharpens debate on need for more easing – Reuters
China is buying Canada: Inside the new real estate frenzy – Macleans
Why more widowed homeowners are struggling to prevent foreclosure – LA Times
U.S. need not fear challengers to dollar, Fed official says – Reuters
Helicopters on a Leash – Project Syndicate

 
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