Friday Morning Links

MUST READS
IMF warns over yen weakness – FT
Q&A: Abenomics, panacea or peril for Japan? – AP
Eurozone unemployment hits record 12.2% – CNN/Money
30-year mortgage rate hits 3.81%, a 1-year high – USA Today
Americans rebuild less than half of wealth – Washington Post
CBO: Richest 20 percent get half the savings from U.S. tax breaks – Washington Post
Roiled by mystery GMO wheat, US races to reassure buyers – Bloomberg
Your Guide to the Looming Battle over Student Loans – Fiscal Times
Do soaring London real estate prices point to recovery or bubble? – MarketWatch
When Chinese Walls Come Crumbling Down – CNBC
H. L. Mencken: The Joyous Libertarian – Lew Rockwell
Breadwinner Moms – Pew Research

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MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil falls below $93 ahead of OPEC meeting – AP
Gold off 2-week high, but set for 2nd weekly gain – Reuters
Japan’s Falling Stock Market Triggers Fear of Collapse – Money News
Money Still Flooding Into this Hot, But Volatile, Japan Fund – Barron’s
Goldman Sachs: This US Treasury Sell-Off Is for Real – CNBC
QE talk spurs caution in Asian markets, yet money stays – Reuters
Why You Never Learn From Your Investment Mistakes – Motley Fool
China’s Gold Demand to Slow From April Surge – Bloomberg
Gold Prices Finally Hit Marginal Cost Of Production – Seeking Alpha
WGC: 82% of the Asians believe that price of gold will increase – Economic Times
Correlations: India’s Gold Grab – Businessweek

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
This Time, a Growing Economy Stirs Unease – NY Times
Consumer Metrics Institute: “Is it 2007 once again?” – Dollar Collapse
Abe’s Economic Revival Smacks Into Japan’s Reality – Bloomberg
New portrait of China’s 185 million seniors – CNN/Money
Capital flight continues as savers flee Cyprus banks – euobserver
Brazil faces 1970s stagflation as resource boom wilts – Telegraph
Italy Jobless Rate Reaches 12%, 36-Year-High Amid Recession – Bloomberg
India’s 5% annual growth is slowest in a decade – Globe & Mail
It’s Time to Abolish the Mortgage Interest Deduction – RCM
It’s official: The housing market has recovered – MarketWatch
The Fed Is Now In A Lose-Lose Situation – Comstock Funds
At Least One Reason Why People Shouldn’t Hate QE – macroblog

 






Consumer Confidence and the Stock Market

In Yet Another Reason to be Scared at MarketWatch, Mark Hulbert discusses the relationship between rising consumer confidence and the future performance of equity markets, a relationship that can be seen clearly below indicated in gray.

Stocks and Consumer Confidence

In most cases it seems the mood of the American consumer reaches a peak just a few months before stock prices do, which is why the recent five-year high in consumer confidence is causing concern in some circles.

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It’s not surprising to hear that retirees are adding debt faster than any other age group. It used to be that the house was paid off by the time you quit work and medical costs in your golden years were far less onerous than today. While health care is surely better now than in decades past, it’s also far more expensive and has forced many retirees to borrow against the house, take out a reverse mortgage, or rack up credit card debt.

These issues are touched on in this CNN/Money story based on a new study of the subject.

It used to be that many Americans entered retirement having paid off their mortgages and most of their other debts. This should have been senior citizens’ Golden Years.

Nowadays, more and more people over the age of 65 are struggling with mounting debt levels, fueled primarily by mortgages and credit cards. The average debt held by senior citizens has ballooned to $50,000 in 2010, up 83% since 2001, according to Federal Reserve data crunched by the Employee Benefit Research Institute.

Only 24% of homeowners over the age of 62 had mortgage debt in 1992, but that figure soared to 45% in 2010.

Credit card debt has also become more pervasive among seniors. One-third of them are relying on plastic to cover basic living expenses, according to Demos, a public policy organization that advocates for lower- and middle-income Americans.

Presumably, reverse mortgages are included in the figures cited above. Otherwise, they’d be far higher and, based on anecdotal accounts I’ve heard in recent years, reverse mortgage probably account for the bulk of the new debt.

It’s not necessarily a bad thing that reverse mortgages are the only recourse for many elderly since it’s better than having no options at all, but it’s a sad testament to our current condition when you have to, basically, sell your house in order to survive.

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Given the steady selling of gold by ETF investors in recent months, it seems inevitable that the holdings of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) will soon sink below the 1,000 level, but that didn’t happen on Wednesday.

Instead, the GLD trust added about a tonne of the yellow metal in what was only the second increase over the last 51 days of trading.

Gold BarsDoes this signal a trend change? Probably not.

But with heightened volatility in stock and bond markets lately, a long overdue correction for the former could quickly send some institutional investors and hedge funds back into gold and a trend change could begin.

As shown below, it’s been a one-way ticket down for the gold price beginning late last summer and then for GLD holdings starting in December. The failure of futures traders to bid the gold price higher after the Federal Reserve announced its latest money printing gambit late last year quickly turned ETF buyers into sellers, and then came April, when the gold market saw its steepest sell-off in decades.

[To continue reading this article, please visit Seeking Alpha and to access precious
metals commentary that Tim only shares with subscribers, join Iacono Research.]

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GDP Down, Jobless Claims Up

The Commerce Department reported a modest downward revision to U.S. gross domestic product, from an annual rate of 2.5 percent to 2.4 percent during the first quarter of 2013 as the increase in inventories, exports, and imports were all lower than originally estimated.

In a separate report from the Labor Department, jobless claims jumped from an upwardly revised level of 344,000 to 354,000 for the week ending May 25th as next week’s monthly labor report looms ever larger for the Federal Reserve and financial markets.

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Thursday Morning Links

MUST READS
What’s going on in Japan? – Economist
Japan’s Nikkei dives a further 5% – BBC
Japan Market Plunges, Then Futures Surge On New Rumor – BI
Exclusive: Japan public pension mulls shift after stock rally – Reuters
No saviour in sight as world credit cycle rolls over – Telegraph
Volcker Cautions Federal Reserve May ‘Fall Short’ – Bloomberg
Analysis: Housing price gains mask lingering market weaknesses – Reuters
Blankfein Leads Bank CEO Pay With $26 Million Deemed Overpaid – Bloomberg
Risk of Bank Failures Is Rising in Europe, E.C.B. Warns – NY Times
Is Wall Street literally writing America’s laws now? – The Week
Critics Say Consumer Bureau is an Overreaching Monster – Fiscal Times
America’s Misplaced Deficit Complacency – Project Syndicate
Federal disability trust fund on the brink – CNN/Money

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil posts gain, stays in $93-a-barrel range – AP
Gold at 1-week high, downside risk remains – Reuters
Oil guru says US shale revolution is ‘temporary’ – FT
USA Today’s Headline—A Market Top Signal, Maybe – CNBC
Shares, dollar under pressure on Fed stimulus jitters – Reuters
Consumer Confidence: Yet another reason to be scared – MarketWatch
Risky derivatives make return for returns’ sake – Reuters
Will the End of QE Lead to a Bond Meltdown? – Naked Capitalism
Why QE phase-out fears are not pulling Gold down – Commodity Online
Singapore gold bar premiums touch new highs on tight supply – Mineweb

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
The Fed is keeping the economy afloat – Washington Post
Euro-Area Economic Confidence Climbs Amid Recession – Bloomberg
New BoE chief Carney will devalue sterling, Pimco warns – Telegraph
Draghi vs. Germany: ECB President Surrounded by Critics – Spiegel
Bank of France Seeking Yuan Liquidity Agreement for Euro Area – Bloomberg
Brazil’s Central Bank Raises Rate and Some Eyebrows – WSJ
China’s Shuanghui to buy US pork producer for $4.7bn – BBC
British house prices are ‘31pc too high’ – OECD – Telegraph
Big Investors Exit Housing As “Stupid Money” Jumps In – Zero Hedge
Rising Mortgage Rates, Home Prices a Lethal Brew – CNBC
A housing bubble era loan makes a comeback, with a twist – Fortune
Is the Fed Right to Calibrate Asset Purchases to Economic Data? – CFR
The Fed’s tricky messaging: Tapering is not tightening – Washington Post
QE: Because Nobody’s Got Any Better Ideas – It’s Not That Simple

 
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