The Mess That Greenspan Made - Part 11

Wednesday Morning Links

Fedspeak 3.0: The ‘dot plot’ – CNBC
These ‘dots’ could move markets – CNN/Money
Obama Holds Off on Airstrikes as Iraq Risks Breakup – Bloomberg
A Country Implodes: ISIS Pushes Iraq to the Brink – Spiegel
UK plans to re-open Iran embassy says Hague – BBC
Iraq Isn’t Ours to Save: A hawk’s case for caution – Atlantic
Kurds eye independence as Iraq slides into chaos – France24
Murderous ISIS May Have a Secret Weapon: Bribery – Fiscal Times
Congratulations, IMF, you are stoking the next crisis – Quartz
What’s Behind the Default Rate on Student Loans? – St. Louis Fed
Here’s how much people are paying for Obamacare – vox
Tea Party Is Still at the Kids’ Table – Bloomberg
Wall Street’s latest fad is built on sand – Reuters

Investors to seek clues from Fed on rate increase – AP
The real reason oil traders worry about Iraq – MarketWatch
The winner from Iraq crisis: Energy stocks – CNN/Money
Investing: Where the smart money is going – Economist
Treasuries Advance as Market Debates Fed Rate Strategy – Bloomberg
Gold steadies ahead of expected hawkish moves by Fed – Reuters
Mining’s bearish pendulum in big swing in other direction – Mineweb
Precious Metals & The Death Of The Business Cycle – SRSrcooc Report
TITalking with gold jewellery consumers in ChinaTLE – Mineweb
Allocated Gold at Bank of England declines 755 tonnes – GoldChat
Your gold ETF has changed – Business Standard

Why DSGEs crash during crises – voxeu
Inflation Spikes as Consumer Prices Rise – moneynews
JPM: Recent Mix of Growth-Inflation is Discouraging – Zero Hedge
The four stages of Chinese growth – China Financial Markets
Premier Li: No hard landing for China, sees medium to high growth – Reuters
Eurozone’s disinflation contagion spreads to the UK – Sober Look
Gilts Advance as BOE Damp Bets of Imminent Rate Increase – Bloomberg
Why Japan’s Debt Markets Continue to be Frozen – Bloomberg
BOJ to provide almost 5 trillion yen to banks to boost lending – Reuters
New Worries in Germany Over Rising Housing Prices – WSJ
Eight housing markets at all-time highs – USA Today
Janet Yellen About to Face Her First Big Test – New Republic
Why The Market Doubts Fed Rate Dot Plot – WSJ


The Labor Department reported that annual inflation in the U.S. rose above 2 percent for the first time since late-2012 as a surge in energy prices added to broad-based inflation in other categories of consumer goods and services. Overall prices jumped 0.4 percent in May, the biggest gain in almost two years, and are now 2.1 percent higher than a year ago.

Expectations were for an increase of just 0.2 percent and “core” consumer prices – excluding food and energy – came in higher as well, up 0.3 percent versus a consensus estimate of 0.2 percent. On a year-over-year basis, core inflation now stands at 2.0 percent.

Overall energy prices jumped 0.9 percent last month paced by a surge of 2.3 percent in electricity costs and an increase of 0.8 percent for motor fuel. Food prices rose 0.5 percent with a gain of 1.4 percent for meat, poultry, fish, and eggs leading the way, closely followed by a gain of 1.1 percent for fruits and vegetables.

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Tuesday Morning Links

Iraq oil refinery shuts as crisis deepens – CBS News
Who are the major players in the Iraq crisis? – USA Today
Oil Topping $116 Possible as Iraq Conflict Widens – Bloomberg
Collapse Of Iraq Would Open A New Front In The Sunni-Shi’a War – Mint Press
Islamists kill 50 in Kenya, some during World Cup screening – Reuters
Russian $8.2 Trillion Oil Trove Locked Without U.S. Tech – Bloomberg
IMF downgrades U.S. growth outlook, cautions investors on interest rates – LA Times
IMF Cuts U.S. Growth Outlook, Sees More Scope for Zero Rates – Bloomberg
Bonds’ Liquidity Threat Is Revealed in Derivatives Explosion – Bloomberg
Study asserts startling numbers of insider trading rogues – NY Times
David Brat Gets It Right About Subprime Crisis –
Wall Street’s Secret Weapon: Congress – truthout
Fourth Turning Accelerating – Burning Platform

World stocks mixed as investors wait for Fed – AP
The Cloudy View of Stocks from 30,000 Feet – Barron’s
Emerging Stocks End Four-Day Decline as Turkey, India Advance – Bloomberg
David Rosenberg: Investor complacency and other things in a bubble – Financial Post
Survey: Fed Will Raise Rates Faster Than Investors Bet – Bloomberg
Treasury 2-Year Yields at 9-Month High as Fed Meeting Begins – Bloomberg
Gold slips before Fed; platinum flat on S.Africa wage offer – Reuters
Silver Chart And Sentiment Show Potentially Sharp Rally – GoldSilverWorld
Gold’s Three Week High is All About Iraq — as is Today’s Decline – Barron’s
Amid high inflation, the gold price rises in India – Mineweb
Gold Finally Bombed Out – GoldSeek

The Big Freeze on hiring – Washington Post
They’re Lying To Us, Part 1: Unemployment – Dollar Collapse
UK inflation rate falls to 1.5% in May – BBC
German investor sentiment at lowest level in 18 months – CNA
Argentina: Won’t submit to ‘extortion’ on debt – SF Gate
China Bigger Than U.S. With $14 Trillion in Company Debt – Bloomberg
The Global Importance Of Paul Volcker’s Call For A ‘New Bretton Woods’ – Forbes
House prices in London reach pre-crisis highs – Telegraph
Canada Finance Minister Sees Soft Landing in Housing Market – Nasdaq
Homebuilder confidence rises, but most still see unhealthy housing market – AP
Federal Reserve Won’t Roil the Waters – WSJ
Fed may forecast slower growth – USA Today


Rosenberg on Inflation and the Fed

Gluskin Sheff chief economist David Rosenberg talks about such things as wage inflation where it matters and nascent rising prices with a ditzy Trish Regan who seems intent on extrapolating from a single month of data (last week’s negative PPI print for May).

Rosenberg has been warning about higher inflation for some time now and it’s worth pointing out that his track record on this sort of thing is pretty good.

I’ll never forget a few years back when he was predicting 10-year yields of 1.5 percent and everyone, including myself, thought he was kind of nuts.

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