The Mess That Greenspan Made - Part 12

Monday Morning Links

MUST READS
Germany Takes Aim at the European Central Bank – Spiegel
Schäuble: Time Is Near to End Central Banks’ Easy-Money Policies – WSJ
Negative rates could fuel fresh ‘boom and bust’, IMF warns – Telegraph
Panama Furor Rumbles Into Week Two as Global Pressure Mounts – Bloomberg
How a US president and JP Morgan made Panama into a tax haven – Guardian
Obesity Is Now a Bigger Global Problem Than Hunger – Fiscal Times
Cruz, Trump prepare mass-money arms race in California – Politico
The Boston Globe imagined covering a President Donald Trump – Vox
Bernie Sanders Is Even Less Competitive Than He Appears – Five Thirty Eight
Janet Yellen disagrees with Bernie Sanders – CNN/Money
Bernie and the Big Banks – Robert Reich
Bubble Economy or Not? – Credit Bubble Bulletin
Rounding the Bubble’s Edge – Hussman Funds

MARKETS/INVESTING
Stocks: 4 things to know before the open – CNN/Money
The Strange Case of the Missing Crisis – Wall Street Jounral
U.S. banks’ dismal first quarter may spell trouble for 2016 – Reuters
Bill Gross: Why Interest Rates Must Rise – Barron’s
Wall Street hope: 1Q profits to mark trough – USA Today
Reports of Oil Rally’s Death Premature as Inventories Decline – Bloomberg
Why beating lowered earnings expectations won’t help stocks soar – MarketWatch
Rate outlook helps gold to highest in almost three weeks – Reuters
Wishes Aside, Gold Is Going To Fly – Capitalist Exploits

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
Why no economic boost from lower oil prices? – Econbrowser
Minimum-Wage Test: Guess Which States Lost Retail Jobs Since 2014 – IBD
China Consumer Inflation Pick Up Continues in March on Food Prices – Bloomberg
China Newspaper: Great Firewall Necessary to Keep Out Western Propaganda – WSJ
Tentative Ceasefire Begins in Yemen Amid Threats and Fighting – Vice News
Tsipras demonises IMF to rally troops for bailout sacrifices – Reuters
There’s a surge in the amount of money in circulation in India – Quartz
Team Obama is setting us up for another housing-market collapse – NY Post
Can central banks make 3 major mistakes in a row and stay independent? – mainly macro
Yellen will regret slow pace of rate hikes, top forecaster says – MarketWatch

 

Yellen: “Not a bubble economy”

It’s hard (for someone like me at least) not to think that Ms. Yellen’s opening comments in the video below will come back to haunt her someday:

This is an economy on a solid course – not a bubble economy…

It could be right up there with Greenspan’s “irrational exuberance” comments back when they could have cooled the late-1990s internet/stock market bubble and, of course, Bernanke’s assurance that “troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will be limited” (and not “limited to planet earth” as Jim Grant once quipped).

It doesn’t appear there are any similar offerings for Volcker.

Friday Morning Links

MUST READS
What scares America’s 4 Fed chiefs – CNN/Money
Fed chiefs joke about having all that power – USA Today
Yellen, alongside Fed alum, says rate hikes on track – Reuters
Obesity Trends in the U.S. Reflect a Global Epidemic – Scientific American
Knowing how long it takes to run off a pizza might help fight obesity – Quartz
Mark Levin Rips “Stop Trump” Movement: These People are “Frauds” – RCP
Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and the coming GOP train wreck – NY Daily News
Insiders: 90 percent predict contested GOP convention – Politico
Trump rally oozes fear, anxiety, and paranoia – Boston Globe
New York Campaign Ads Are a Tale of Two Cities – New Republic
Hillary’s world collapsing around her – Salon
Anti-Trade America? – Project Syndicate

MARKETS/INVESTING
Stocks: 4 things to know before the open – CNN/Money
The end of short covering and ‘Fed put’ spells market trouble – CNBC
Treasuries Set for Two-Week Gain; Greenspan Warns of Global Risk – Bloomberg
Why there’s no better investment for your money now than U.S. stocks – MarketWatch
The Stock Market Will Get Ugly Later This Year, and Debt Cycles Are to Blame – The Street
Oil Market `Fooled’ by Freeze Talks Seen Better Off Gauging U.S. – Bloomberg
Commodities: Gold and Zinc Crush it in Q1, Energy Gets Smoked – Visual Capitalist
Gold slips as equities recover, still set for weekly gain – Reuters
Something Big Happened In The Gold Market – SRSrocco Report
Trump vs. Clinton: Who’s Best For Gold? – Vince Lanci Speaks Out – Kitco

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
The Deflation Bogeyman – Project Syndicate
New Magic Number for Monthly Job Growth: 145,000 – WSJ
Why the eurozone is still headed for total disaster – The Week
Two views of the EZ Crisis: Government failure vs market failure – voxeu
China’s Economy Likely Slowed in First Quarter; Green Shoots Emerging – WSJ
Panama Papers: Argentine Prosecutor Wants President Macri Investigated – Vice News
Housing Market Recovery Powers Delinquency Decline – IBD
Most Economists Expect Next Fed Rate Increase in June – WSJ
Lost Faith In Central Banks And The Economic End Game – Alt-Market
How Do Survey- and Market-Based Expectations of the Policy Rate Differ? – NY Fed

 

Following a lengthy discussion about the energy market (oil prices to rise this summer), at about the four minute mark Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs Head of Commodities Research, reiterates his long-held bearish outlook for precious metals.

I’ve read Currie’s commentary many times over the years, but never seen him speak until this clip. Granted, his call for $1,050 gold in recent years was pretty spot-on, but, over the long-term, his record isn’t so hot (not always bearish).

More importantly, it’s not clear why someone who looks like that would wear glasses like that – I mean, we get it, you’re a PhD economist working at Goldman Sachs – is there some sort of Uber-Nerd/Uber-Dork/Uber-Douche competition going on?

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Thursday Morning Links

MUST READS
The Fed ‘is a god that has failed’ – CNBC
Fed signals caution on rate hikes – Reuters
How Bad Is China’s Debt Problem, Really? – Bloomberg
SocGen warns of ‘tidal wave of corporate default’ – Financial Times
The ‘Panama Papers’ Expose the Secret World of the 1% – Time
The Economist’s website is now censored in China due to one satirical cover – Quartz
Why Are Voters Angry? It’s the 1099 Economy, Stupid. – New Republic
How red America and blue America became two separate countries – The Week
Cruz Outmaneuvering Trump in Hand-to-Hand Delegate Fight – RCP
Trump Has Some Bad News for Cruz in New York – Fiscal Times
Bernie’s triumphs are starting to get to Hillary – NY Post
Bernie’s big breakthrough – Politico

MARKETS/INVESTING
Stocks: 5 things prior to the open – CNN/Money
As oil goes, so goes the S&P 500 – USA Today
Dollar sinks again after Fed remains cautious – Reuters
Why Bull Markets Make Everyone Miserable – Reformed Broker
Yen Strengthens Toward 108, Traders Deaf to BOJ Jawboning – Bloomberg
How Much Of S&P Earnings Growth Comes From Buybacks – Zero Hedge
Time to stop dancing with equities on a live volcano – Telegraph
Gold gains on lower dollar after Fed remains cautious on rates – Reuters
In 1933 on This Week, It Became Illegal for Americans to Hold Gold – EPJ
Osama Bin Laden was more than keen on gold – Mining.com

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
Is a recession on the horizon? – Omaha.com
Presenting The Slowdown – Alhambra Partners
American manufacturing isn’t dead yet – CNN/Money
Western Mistakes, Remade in China – Project Syndicate
Venezuela Declares Every Friday a Holiday to Save Electricity – Bloomberg
German Economy, Once Europe’s Leader, Now Looks Like Laggard – NY Times
San Francisco Home Prices: “This Is Troubling” – Zero Hedge
Fed’s Global Concern Signals Barriers to Rate Increases – Bloomberg
The Fed Can’t Save Us – Mises
Dovish Minutes – Fed Watch

 
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