Wednesday Morning Links

MUST READS
OECD cuts eurozone growth forecasts – BBC
IMF cuts China growth forecast – CNN/Money
Don’t Believe New Housing Bubble Hype – WSJ
Another Housing Market Bubble Brewing – CNBC
Flippers once again ride the housing wave – MarketWatch
Portuguese bestseller calls for euro exit – Telegraph
Japan’s Bond Market Wants BOJ to Purchase More Short-Term – Bloomberg
Central Banks Act With a New Boldness to Revitalize Economies – NY Times
Creeping Fascism, Part 3: They Really Are Watching You – Dollar Collapse
4 ways the end of QE will surprise everyone – MarketWatch
Senior citizens struggle with mounting debt – CNN/Money
Rock, Paper, Scissors – Hussman Funds

To find out what Tim thinks of today’s news, subscribe to Iacono Research

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil falls below $95, parts ways with stocks – AP
Gold ticks higher as dollar, stocks dip – Reuters
Australia’s Dollar Slides to 19-Month Low – CNBC
Fed policy change fears weigh on markets – AP
NYSE Margin Debt Hits a New All-Time High – Prag Cap
Volatile US Bond Market a Major Risk for Global Economy – CNBC
Goldistocks and the Bulls and the Bears – FT Alphaville
Central banks show faith in gold, western investment falls – BullionStreet
Large Speculators’ Gold Net-Long Position Falls To New Low – Kitco
Gold short positions hit new record – Mineweb
Little respite for gold – yet – Mineweb

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
Gallup Measures Show Weak May Job Market – Gallup
Uncle Sam’s Rent-Seeking Economy circa 2013 – Sense on Cents
10 Things You Don’t Know About Obama’s New Econ Guru – Fiscal Times
Why hasn’t austerity been more of a drag on the economy? – Washington Post
A Virtuous Cycle For Housing Prices & Consumer Confidence? – Capital Spectator
Germany fears revolution if Europe scraps welfare model – Reuters
Distorted Stats: Europe’s Youth Unemployment Fallacy – Spiegel
Money from China? Then “Made in China”, shipowners told – SCMP
US Housing Bubble II: Euphoria And Other Shenanigans – Testosterone Pit
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Rise to 12-Month Highs – Zillow Blog
The Fed vs. Congress: Who Is Enabling Whom? – CNBC
Kansas City Fed Wanted to Raise Discount Rate – WSJ

 






Do the Math

Here’s another fun video from a Grant Williams presentation, this one a mathematical perspective on the recent central bank money printing / stock market extravaganza.

Don’t let introductory topics like “The real part of any non-trivial zero of the Riemann zeta function is 1/2″ deter you – this is pretty entertaining and informative stuff.

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CNBC’s Worst Gold Commentary Ever

Maybe the video (that I didn’t bother to listen to) was better than this short story about gold at CNBC, but it didn’t seem worth the time to listen to, especially since it’s one of those annoying auto-play deals that you’d think, by now, would have been outlawed (if you click on a video, then it makes sense to have auto-play, but if not, it’s just annoying).

See if you can spot the problems in this report (well, they’re highlighted):

The central banks of Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan all boosted their gold purchases in April, according to a report on Monday from the International Monetary Fund.

Together, the three countries bought up some 24,125 pounds of gold in the month. And as a whole, central bank net purchases contributed to more than 11 percent of the demand for gold in the first quarter of 2013, according to the World Gold Council.

So can the central banks save gold?

“I don’t think that central bank buying is going to actually stop this decline in gold,” said Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management. That said, central bank purchases “are certainly stemming the slide, and gold would probably be closer to $1,200 if it wasn’t for this demand by central banks.”

So why doesn’t she think those same purchases can save gold?

“You’ve consistently seen central banks increase their purchases over the last couple months,” Lien said on Tuesday’s episode of “Futures Now and yet you’ve still seen gold prices fall.”

That’s why for Lien, the continued central bank purchases that she predicts will “not [be] enough to stop this yellow from falling.”

In fact, this strategist sees gold prices going all the way down to $1,200, as the U.S. dollar continues to rise compared with other currencies.

Who refers to large quantities of gold in pounds? And don’t the proof readers at CNBC know it’s “yellow metal”, not just “yellow” (or maybe they meant Old Yeller). Not one of CNBC’s finer moment, though, they probably figure no one reads their gold commentary anyway with stocks making new highs every day.

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Consumer Confidence at 5-Year High

The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence rose to its highest level in over five years as rising home price, rising stock prices, and an improving labor market have brightened the American mood.

The overall index jumped 7.2 points, from an upwardly revised 69.0 in April to 76.2 in May, the best reading since February 2008, just months before the financial crisis.

The expectations component jumped 8.1 points to a recovery high of 82.4 while the current conditions index improved 6 points to 66.7. The share of respondents saying jobs are “hard to get” fell from 36.9 percent in April to 36.1 percent in May and those saying jobs are “plentiful” rose from 9.7 percent to 10.8 percent.

In a separate report from Standard & Poor’s released earlier today, the Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes jumped 1.4 percent in March and are now up more than 10 percent on a year-over-year basis for the first time since early-2006.

The national home price index is still below the levels seen in 2009 and 2010 when tax credits pushed prices higher and they remain more than 25 percent below the highs of seven years ago, but the former may change as soon as next month.

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No metal exited the trust for the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) on Monday, but that was due entirely to markets being closed for the Memorial Day holiday.

Expect outflows to resume today as the trust has shed gold bars on 31 of the last 34 trading days beginning early last month, just after Goldman Sachs recommended that clients not just sell – but short – the metal.

Gold VaultCombined with rumors that officials in Europe might begin seizing gold from the central banks of wayward eurozone members (and aided by some unusually large futures market sell orders) the gold price began tumbling and owners of GLD shares began selling in earnest.

Despite being only moderately correlated with the gold price in recent years as detailed in “Do More Gold ETF Outflows Mean Even Lower Gold Prices Ahead?,” ETF flows have dominated the news coverage of the gold market in recent months and it’s worth taking another look at the relationship between these two.

In an update to the graphic from six weeks ago as shown below, one thing is clear – ETF flows and the gold price are once again highly correlated as indicated in red. Only in 2007 was there a closer relationship between the two, that is, back when the price of just about every asset class was rising and global markets were readying for their 2008 crash.

[To continue reading this article, please visit Seeking Alpha and to access precious
metals commentary that Tim only shares with subscribers, join Iacono Research.]

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Germany Gives In?

According to this story at Der Spiegel, it looks like Germany is about to finally give in to other policy makers in Europe who favor a less austere approach to restoring economic growth. Apparently, graphics like the one below that accompanied this report (and perhaps the fall-out from the Reinhart-Rogoff Excel error) are influencing their views.

Granted, the change in view is from just one man, finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, who doesn’t have an electorate to please as does Chancellor Angela Merkel in four months. Nonetheless, this should be interesting to watch play out in the months ahead.

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