The Mess That Greenspan Made - Part 19

Wednesday Morning Links

MUST READS
In search of signs of irrational exuberance – USA Today
Equities Reach Record $66 Trillion, S&P 500 Hits 2,000 – Bloomberg
Here’s what the S&P500 did the last 2 times the Fed started hiking rates – MarketWatch
Eurozone borrowing costs fall to record lows – Channel News Asia
Deflationary Fears Are Spreading Globally – Financial Sense
Europe will be Russia’s gas hostage for at least another decade – Telegraph
Finding your ‘magic number’ for retirement savings – CNBC
Harvard Endowment Compensation Sparks Letter From Alumni – Bloomberg
Buffett puts shareholders ahead of patriotism in Canadian deal – Reuters
Buffett’s Burger King Move To Canada Reeks Of Hypocrisy – IBD
The GOP Could Reform Its Way To Keynesianism – Forbes
Why Isn’t Monetary Pumping Helping the Economy? – Mises
Is Secular Stagnation Real? – Bloomberg

MARKETS/INVESTING
Europe shares ease, Asia higher after S&P record – AP
The Bull Market’s Strength Is Reaching Epic Proportions – WSJ
Get ready for S&P 500 at 2,150, top market timer says – MarketWatch
The Greater the Stock Bubble, the Less Monetary Theory Holds – Alhambra Partners
The S&P 500 Through The Ages – From 200 To 2000 In 30 Years – Zero Hedge
U.S. Treasuries Rise as Cheapness Versus Peers Draws Demand – Bloomberg
Gold edges higher as dollar retreats, equities steady after record – Reuters
Is A Looming War Coincident With Low Gold Price And Stock Market Peak? – GoldSilverWorlds
Gold Shines Most in September on Seasonal Buys: Bloomberg Chart of Day – GoldCore
Gold struggling to escape grips of summer slowdown – BullionDesk
Gold price lifted out of danger zone – Mining.com

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
More laid-off workers find jobs in their fields – Bloomberg
Conflicts weighing heavily on German consumers – AP
Objecting to Austerity, French Style – New Yorker
IMF chief Lagarde charged over corruption case – CNA
French Manufacturing Confidence Falls to 13-Month Low – Bloomberg
‘Yes’ or ‘No’? A Divided Scotland Confronts Independence Vote – Spiegel
Can South Korea Tax Itself to Prosperity? – Bloomberg
London housing market shuts out Bridget Jones generation – Telegraph
Why a Slowdown in Housing Prices Is Great News – NY Times
This house market is falling apart – MarketWatch
Central Banks Playing Own Version of FX Monopoly – Bloomberg
The Fed can wait to act on interest rates – Washington Post

 

The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence reached a fresh seven-year high this month as Americans are increasingly optimistic about the economy in general and the job market in particular. The group’s confidence index rose from a downwardly revised 90.3 in July to a new recovery high of 92.4 this month as the present situation component jumped 6.7 points to 94.6. The expectations component dipped 1.0 point to 90.9.

Earlier, two reports indicated slowing momentum in the nation’s housing market as the Case Shiller Home Price Index showed declining year-over-year gains, down from 9.3 percent to 8.1 percent, and the FHFA reported price gains dropped from 5.5 percent to 5.1 percent.

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Tuesday Morning Links

MUST READS
The S&P500 tops 2,000. Should you care? – MarketWatch
What to Expect Next in Iraq and Syria? – New Yorker
Islamic State Captures Syrian Air Force Base – Vice News
The Islamic State: Can it govern? – Economist
Israel Destroys 2 Gaza High-Rises in Escalation – AP
Putin in Minsk for bilateral talks with Ukraine’s Poroshenko – RT News
Why U.S. conservatives love Russia’s Vladimir Putin – Washington Post
Ukraine moves another step closer to default – Fitch – RT News
Why Burger King wants to become a Canadian citizen – Washington Post
Why Central Banks Should Give Money Directly to the People – Foreign Affairs
Iowa farmers to see record corn crop – Daily Iowan
Stick a Fork in Your Newspaper – Bloomberg
The Challenge – Reformed Broker

MARKETS/INVESTING
Global stocks lower, US economic data awaited – AP
Geopolitical pressure could return as S&P reaches for 2,000 – CNBC
Surging U.S. Stocks Echo Dot-Com Rally With Cheaper P/E – Bloomberg
Don’t lose faith, the Dow uptrend is intact – CNBC
This is the chart that stock bulls don’t want you to see – MarketWatch
Treasury Two-Year Notes Yield Most Versus Germany’s Since 2007 – Bloomberg
Gold up around 1 pct as dollar rally pauses; U.S. data eyed – Reuters
Shanghai Silver Warehouse Stocks Fall 24% In One Week – SRSrocco Report
Is Asian gold demand really slipping so much? – Mineweb
Commodity Index Turns Negative On The Year – Kitco
Copper on the Rise – Barron’s

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
Mimicking the airlines, hotels get fee-happy – AP
What Kind of Job for Part-Time Pat? – macroblog
6 things you should know about the U.S. economy – CBS News
Eurozone opens doors to QE as Germany and France stumble – Telegraph
German Exports to Russia May Shrink by One Quarter This Year – Ria Novosti
BOJ to stay bullish on prices even as it cuts Japan GDP estimate – Reuters
Hollande Replaces Cabinet as EU Austerity Rebellion Stirs – Bloomberg
German anti-euro party set for gains in eastern votes – Reuters
China’s falling real-estate prices trigger protests, clashes – MarketWatch
The  Mortgage Crisis is About to Flare Up Again – New Republic
No, Professor Cochrane, The Fed Is Not Getting It Right – Forbes
The Fed Is Not As Powerful As We Think – Slate

 

Too Low for Too Long, Round 2

Based on the results of this survey as reported at the Wall Street Journal Economics blog and depicted below, large numbers of U.S. economists are prepping their 2015 (maybe 2016) “I told you so” commentaries as they relate to the Federal Reserve’s handling of interest rates.

I’m not sure if this is round two or three (i.e., I wasn’t really paying attention back in the early-1990s when Greenspan held rates pretty low for a few years) but, either way, it’s kind of disconcerting to see a plethora of economists (who, by the way, are not known for being the sharpest tools in the shed as far as predicting the future) already thinking the Fed is making the same mistake (one that they’ve never acknowledged) once again.

© 2010-2011 The Mess That Greenspan Made