Back in a Few…

I’m having some fairly routine outpatient surgery early tomorrow morning and, as such, offering up pearls of wisdom will be put on hold until such time that the drugs have worn off and I’m able to sit upright and type.

When that will be is anyone’s guess, but I don’t think it will be more than a couple days as I tend to get kind of bored after watching 10 or 15 episodes of Gunsmoke and Marshal Dillon (it wasn’t until a year or so ago that I learned there was a half-hour show with the late James Arness that preceded the long-running hour-long series).







In my visit back to Pennsylvania last week the subject of reverse mortgages came up on several occasions as more and more seniors have little recourse other than to tap their home equity in order to pay, primarily, medical bills. Long-term care costing upwards of $10,000 a month (i.e., after the three months that Medicare pays) will quickly wipe out whatever savings most elderly have, leaving them with few alternatives other than a reverse mortgage that, surprisingly, are now taken out as a lump sum by a margin of two-to-one.

Until reading this Wall Street Journal story, I didn’t even realize it’s possible to default on these loans, but, clearly it is, and those default rates are on the rise, but help is on the way.

Defaults occur when a borrower fails to pay property charges, including property taxes and homeowners insurance. Of the almost 600,000 reverse mortgages outstanding, 9.8% are currently delinquent, up from 8% in 2011, the first year for which statistics are available, according to the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development, whose Federal Housing Administration insures virtually all reverse mortgages.

Delinquencies have increased in recent years as up to 70% of borrowers have opted for lump-sum payouts.

“For many homeowners, taking all eligible cash upfront results in insufficient cash flow in later years for property upkeep, taxes and insurance,” HUD warned in a November report to Congress.

The good news: Help is available. Under guidelines HUD released in 2011, lenders—before initiating foreclosure proceedings—are required to notify borrowers who fall behind of free financial counseling. Such sessions can help them get back on track by, among other things, tapping benefit programs for some older individuals.

I haven’t seen any data on this recently, but reverse mortgages have got to be a booming business for banks with, as I recall, some very big up-front fees.

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Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital throws a wet blanket over Friday’s jobs report and new record highs for U.S. stocks in this appearance on CNBC last week.

There’s a lot to disagree with here such as another call for a dollar crash (against what?), but one interesting claim made early on is that part time restaurant hiring due to changing health care rules has made the job numbers look better than they really are.

Labor Department data shows that restaurant workers account for 7.5 percent of nonfarm payrolls but this group has contributed nearly 20 percent of the payroll gains so far in 2013 and data on part-time workers only shows up in the broader U-6 measure of “under-employment” that just rose from 13.8 to 13.9 percent as the narrower jobless rate fell.

Monday Morning Links

MUST READS
Do young people believe in stocks? – CSM
Warren Buffett: Stocks Will Go ‘Far Higher’ Over Time – CNBC
Buffett sees ‘brutal’ damage for savers from money printing – Telegraph
France Declares Austerity Over, Germany Offers Wiggle Room – Bloomberg
Euro Crisis Deepens, German ’sado-monetarists’ refuse to back QE – Telegraph
German euro founder calls for currency to be broken up – Telegraph
Meals on Wheels budget cuts: ‘Slowly developing crisis’ – CNN/Money
Lessons can be learned from Reinhart-Rogoff error – Washington Post
How Many People Around You Receive Food Stamps? – Slate
Niall Ferguson Blamed Keynes’ Philosophy On His Being Gay – BI
Tracing the Gay Keynes Controversy Back to Schumpeter – EPJ
Xi Jinping and the Chinese dream – Economist
Too Much Asset Inflation – Noland, Prudent Bear

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil rises above $96 on US jobs growth – AP
Gold firm after second weekly gain – Reuters
The Oil and Gold Booms Are Over – Bloomberg
A Time to Sell … and Borrow – Barron’s
Visualizing The Triumph Of Hope Over Reality – Zero Hedge
Aligning Market Exposure With the Expected Risk/Return – Hussman Funds
Stocks Rally, but Bull May Still Lose His Party Hat – CNBC
Turkey buys 45.49 tons of Gold in April – BullionStreet
Gold-price plunge leaves sellers digging for options – Seattle Times
Jan.-Feb. data reveals U.S. gold production declining—USGS – Mineweb
Gold Bulls Split With Buffett as Traders Say Sell – Bloomberg

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
How Social Networks Drive Black Unemployment – NY Times
El-Erian: A recipe for continued economic momentum – Fortune
Italy economy to shrink 1.4% in 2013, figures forecast – BBC
Japan household spending surges as “Abenomics” gains momentum – Reuters
China services growth slows sharply, adds to recovery risk – Reuters
Bankers whisper: Spain’s bailout bill could rise – Reuters
Portugal aims to cut 30,000 civil service jobs – BBC
Help to Buy ‘bubble’ could push house prices up by 30pc – Telegraph
Reverse-Mortgage Defaults Increasing – WSJ
What Happens to Housing When Investors Leave? – U.S. News
How 30-Year Mortgages Saved the Housing Market – Bloomberg
Diminished Housing Wealth Effect Keeps Pressure on Fed – Bloomberg
Federal Reserve Blows More Bubbles – Ron Paul

 

The latest issue of the Iacono Research Weekend Update has been posted to the website and is now available for subscribers here. There are no changes to either the model portfolio or the buy ratings this week, but recent covered call sales and financial market developments are covered in the following discussion topics:

The executive summary is as follows:

A better-than-expected labor report offered renewed hope for the U.S. economy, however, the recession in Europe appears to be worsening and there were fresh signs of slowing growth in China. The European Central Bank cut short-term interest rates and the Federal Reserve promised to keep its monetary stimulus in place, all of which was greeted warmly by U.S. investors who pushed equity markets to record highs.

The natural resource sector saw sharply higher prices paced by big gains for corn, wheat, and many industrial metals, all of which continue to rebound from their April sell-offs. Precious metals saw modest improvements along with beleaguered mining stocks while both energy stocks and REITs moved higher. For the week, the model portfolio rose 0.7 percent and is now down 13.5 percent for the year.

Want more Iacono Research? Subscribe now, risk-free for 45 days.

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Rickards On Gold

In recent days, I’ve read gold price forecasts anywhere from a few thousand dollars an ounce to $7,000 an ounce from Tangent Capital’s Jim Rickards, author of Currency Wars. Here he is on CNBC with a call of $4,000 an ounce for the metal in a deflationary environment.

This item at the Daily Bail show Rickards explaining how the gold price could reach $7,000 an ounce, based on 100 percent backing of global M1 money supply (broader measures of money imply a substantially higher gold price).

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