The Mess That Greenspan Made - Part 21

Friday Morning Links

Halliburton cuts another 5,000 jobs – USA Today
Bond Vigilantes Push $258B of Oil Debt Past Junk – Bloomberg
As China’s Economic Picture Turns Uglier, Beijing Applies Airbrush – NY Times
Chinese central bank chief hints at more stimulus for slowing economy – Guardian
German finmin: expansive policies may have laid foundation of next crisis – Reuters
Germany Opposes Any G-20 Fiscal Stimulus; Focuses on Reform – Bloomberg
Apple to FBI: You Can’t Force Us to Hack the San Bernardino iPhone – Wired
Pot Tourists in Colorado Are Getting Too High and Ending Up in the ER – Vice News
Here Is the Libertarian Case for Bernie Sanders, in One Chart –
In Republican Debate, a Feisty Marco Rubio Lays Into Donald Trump – NY Times
3 winners and 2 losers in the CNN Republican debate – Vox
CNN struggles to contain debate fireworks – Politico
Trump’s Terrible Night in Houston – Atlantic

Stocks: 6 things to know before the open – CNN/Money
Why Stock Market Declines are Good – Pragmatic Capitalism
Trade of Decade or Value Trap? Emerging Markets Debate Heats Up – Bloomberg
Historical pattern says the risk of a 2016 bear market is zero – MarketWatch
Why Tom DeMark is predicting an ugly fall for the S&P 500 in March – MarketWatch
Gold price edges lower, set for weekly gain on fund inflows – Reuters – Secular Investor
Gold price: Great sucking sound now coming from the West –
Deliverable Silver Stocks At The COMEX Reach Historic Low – SRSrocco Report

Don’t Panic Over Falling Inflation Expectations – WSJ
The US Election and the Global Economy – Project Syndicate
Many Americans are rising out of the middle class, but are they better off? – CNN/Money
Six takeaways from the Indian government’s own economic report card – Quartz
EU referendum jitters could hinder UK housing market, says Hometrack – Guardian
This Will Crush the Insane San Francisco & Silicon Valley Housing Bubble – Wolf Street
Why The U.S. Housing Market Will Remain Alive And Kicking in 2016 – Forbes
How the Fed’s Cold War With Congress Could Harm the U.S. Economy – Bloomberg
There’s much talk of helicopter drops. Please let’s not go there – Telegraph
From the Vault: The Path of Interest Rates – NY Fed


Millennials on Debt: “Me No Likey”

A new report from the New York Fed shows a disturbing trend (if you’re a bank, that is) about consumer credit as the borrow-and-spend baby-boomer generation heads off into the sunset with a chastened millennial generation not able/willing to take up the slack.

Here’s the key take-away:

We find that aggregate debt balances held by younger borrowers have declined modestly from 2003 to 2015, with a debt portfolio reallocation away from credit card, auto, and mortgage debt, toward student debt. Debt held by borrowers between the ages of 50 and 80, however, increased by roughly 60 percent over the same time period.

It appears that getting saddled with monstrous student loan debt might be good for tenured professors and college administrators, but bad for an economy that is based largely on buying things you don’t need with money you don’t have.

Thursday Morning Links

IMF warns global economy “vulnerable” – BBC
U.S.-China Showdown Keeps Inching Closer – Time
China Says It Has Solutions to Its Economic Problems – NY Times
China stocks plunge 6.4% on market liquidity worries – MarketWatch
Biggest Wave Yet of U.S. Oil Defaults Looms as Bust Intensifies – Bloomberg
North Dakota’s Largest Oil Producer Suspends All Fracking – Zero Hedge
OECD’s William White: In Terms of Debt, the Situation Is Way Worse than 2007 – FSO
Treasury Yield Cure (10Y-2Y) Hits New Post 2007 Low – Confounded Interest
As Roads Crumble, Infrastructure Spending Hits a 30-Year Low – Fiscal Times
Chomsky: Trump Rising in Polls for Same Reasons Germany Embraced Hitler – Anti-Media
Nearly 20 percent of Trump’s supporters disapprove of Lincoln freeing the slaves – Vox
Trump is Redefining the Republican Party – The Atlantic
Mega-donors shy away from fight with Trump – Politico

Stocks: 5 things to know before the open – CNN/Money
LaVorgna: Wall Street hopes way too high – CNBC
Fed deserves some blame for market selloff: Bullard – MarketWatch
Why Wall Street Bank Stocks Tank When Oil Prices Dive – Wall Street On Parade
Why you can expect another global stock market meltdown – MarketWatch
Gold, Treasury Bond ETFs Dominate 2016 Flows – Barron’s
Gold rises on fund purchases, flat dollar – Reuters
Gold price: ETF buying surges to 6-year high –
Dutch Central Bank Considers Relocating Gold Vault – Bullion Star

Services Starting To Buckle – Alhambra Partners
Two more signs a recession could be coming – CNBC
Why boomers are loading up on debt and millennials aren’t – MarketWatch
Pressure on ECB Mounts as Euro-Area Inflation Revised Lower – Bloomberg
Australia Takes Steps to Counter China’s Island Building – WSJ
Australia’s Housing Bubble: In the Grip of Insanity – Acting Man
There’s Reason to Be Excited About the U.S. Housing Market – Bloomberg
All eyes on economy as Fed rate decision looms – USA Today
Where Negative Interest Rates Will Lead Us – Mises
Lacker, Kaplan, Fischer – Fed Watch


Who’s Your Daddy?

Much ado this post-election morning in Nevada and elsewhere about two words being used together – Trump and Authoritarianism – with the prospect of a third word being regularly added to the mix – Nazi. See here, here, and here for details.

The Vox article referenced above went so far as to chart the relationship between Trump voters and Authoritarianism with the following result:

I’ve thought for some time now that the correlation between Trump voters and the desire for an “outsider” was more significant. Obviously, I could be wrong about that…

Wednesday Morning Links

Helicopter drops might not be far away – FT
Relief rally stalls as oil prices head south – USA Today
U.S. Banks to Cut Credit Lines for Energy Firms – NY Times
It Starts: Subprime Auto Loans Implode (in Your Bond Fund) – Wolf Street
Mitch McConnell Flatly Rejects Any Obama Pick to Supreme Court – NBC News
Trump Hits Jackpot In Nevada Caucuses – US News & World Report
Trump taunts rivals and predicts quick end to GOP race – Politico
Decisive Win for Trump Means Soul Searching for Cruz and Rubio – Vice News
Rubio Is the Only Plausible Alternative to Trump – Real Clear Politics
The best predictor of Trump support is authoritarianism – Vox
Nevada entrance polls show an angry electorate – Politico
Does Ben Carson Suspect His Campaign Was a Scam? – Atlantic
Spike Lee’s endorsement of Sanders is huge news – The Hill

5 things to know before the open – CNN/Money
Another Oil Crash Is Coming, and There May Be No Recovery – Bloomberg
3 Lessons Investors Can Learn From GoPro Stock’s Dramatic Collapse – Motley Fool
Pound plunges to a 7-year low as ‘Brexit’ fears bite – MarketWatch
Global political risks push investors to bulk up cash defenses – Reuters
The Stock Market Rout Can’t Breach the U.S. Consumer Firewall – Bloomberg
Gold holds gains above $1,230/oz as investors seek shelter – Reuters
This Is What Happens To Gold When People Lose Faith In Fiat Currency – Zero Hedge
UK ‘Brexit’ Crisis: Gold Prices Spiking Fastest Since 2011 English Riots – The Street

Keynes’s General Theory at 80 – Project Syndicate
The Place Where the Poor Once Thrived – Atlantic
The Fatal Flaw That Has Doomed Our Economy – Bonner & Partners
China Hopes to Calm Jitters About Its Economy at G-20 Meeting – WSJ
After record 2015, migrants are now coming to Europe three times faster – Quartz
New EU Restrictions Cause ‘Chaos’ for Refugees Stuck in Border Limbo – Vice News
U.S. Must Deploy Anti-Ship Missile Soon in Asia, Admiral Says – Bloomberg
The housing market’s one problem could be a doozy – CBS Moneywatch
Not All Fed Presidents are On Board With a Pause in March – Fed Watch
Fed’s Fischer: Too early to assess hit to US economy from market volatility – CNBC

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