The Mess That Greenspan Made - Part 32

Friday Morning Links

MUST READS
Draghi’s Deadly Derangement – Contra Corner
Now We Know Why the ECB Panicked – Alhambra Partners
In Germany, Zero Interest in Mario Draghi – Handelsblatt
ECB’s Draghi plays his last card to stave off deflation – Telegraph
The ECB is still only tinkering with Europe’s economic crisis – The Week
Life and Times During the Great Depression – Visual Capitalist
Future Economists Will Probably Call This the ‘Longest Depression’ – HuffPo
Former Putin Aide and RT Founder Died of Blunt Force Trauma – Vice News
Democrats’ superdelegate system is unfair and undemocratic – The Hill
3 winners and 3 losers from Thursday night’s Republican debate – Vox
Donald Trump on Violence at His Rallies: Protesters Are ‘Bad Dudes’ – Time
College community wants Trump rally booted from campus – CNN/Money
Why Trump’s rivals can’t catch him – Politico
Trump’s Popular Appeal – The Atlantic

MARKETS/INVESTING
U.S. futures higher after ECB turbulence – USA Today
Stocks Surge as Draghi Plan Gets Second Look – Bloomberg
The Assets of the Ultrarich Come Closer to Earth – NY Times
The Fear Factor in Global Markets – Rogoff, Project Syndicate
The Dow will keep trending down unless these two things happen – MarketWatch
Gold below 13-month top on dollar, heads for 2nd week of gains – Reuters
After ECB mayhem, put your trust in this one asset only – Marketwatch
More Upside Seen for Gold ETFs – ETF Trends

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
Is weak U.S. wage growth all because of who’s getting jobs? – WCEG
The False Promise of Last Year’s Wage Gains – The Atlantic
China Car Sales Hit the Brakes in February – WSJ
Why is labor mobility in India so low? – Microeconomic Insights
What’s the future for the Canadian economy — innovator or imitator? – The Hill
Brazil Prosecutors Seek Lula’s Arrest for Money Laundering – NY Times
One More Disadvantage of Buying a House: Longer Commutes – The Atlantic
Houses: who has stopped buying them? – Bank Underground
Central Bank Economists: Bad Policy Is INCREASING Inequality – Washington’s Blog
Central banks’ steroids aren’t working – CNN/Money

 

Whatever it Takes?

It looks like the folks over at Bloomberg will soon have to update the chart below (from this NIRP Primer the other day) after European Central Bank Chief Mario Draghi & Company pushed short term interest rates even lower – from -0.3 percent to -0.4 percent – while upping their monthly money printing effort from 60 billion euros to 80 billion euros.

The most unsettling aspect about this is that, like the Bank of Japan’s foray into unconventional monetary policy, the ECB’s moves are becoming routine, that is, routine in the same way that rising home prices were routine for a few years during the mid-aughts.

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Thursday Morning Links

MUST READS
What if the helicopters took off? – Economist
4 Economic Doomsayers You Can’t Afford to Ignore – Fortune
New Zealand interest rates cut in shock RBNZ move – ABC News
Markets betting on near-zero interest rates for another decade – Reuters
Will ’super Mario’ deliver? High hopes for robust ECB easing – CNBC
Draghi Has Banking Chiefs Bemoaning ECB’s Negative-Rate Push – Bloomberg
Japanese money market funds to close as returns prove elusive – Asian Review
Whole of Europe risks spinning into crisis if leaders mishandle Brexit – Telegraph
Keith Olbermann says he is moving out of Trump building – Washington Times
One Little Rule Change Could Help The GOP Defeat Donald Trump – Law News
Why The Polls Missed Bernie Sanders’s Michigan Upset – Five Thirty Eight
2 winners and 3 losers from the Univision Democratic debate – Vox
Democratic candidates asked: ‘Is Trump racist?’ – Politico

MARKETS/INVESTING
Stocks: 5 things to know before the open – CNN/Money
Global Liquidity Falls to 2008 Crisis Levels – FSO
Cramer: Jeffrey Gundlach wasn’t talking to you – CNBC
Bull-Market Birthday Crasher: Nothing Has Worked Since QE – Barron’s
How the U.S. government inadvertently launched a $3 trillion industry – Bloomberg
Hulbert: Key lessons from the Internet bubble – USA Today
Gold drops ahead of ECB meeting as euro retreats – Reuters
Gold prices hit by profit taking, stronger dollar – Mining.com
Silver Cheapest To Gold In 7 Years – ETF Holdings Surge – GoldCore

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
Is trade really killing middle class jobs? – CNN/Money
Is Inflation About To Comeback? – Alhambra Partners
The World Economy Wreckers Of Beijing – Contra Corner
Singapore ’still world’s most expensive city’ – BBC
What’s In A Growth Target? For China, Hope And Simple Math – WSJ
China Inflation Fastest Since Mid-2014 as Food Prices Jump – Bloomberg
Former Brazil President Lula Charged in Connection to Money Laundering – Vice News
Home buyers may have to wait a bit longer for market to cool – MarketWatch
Affordability continues to challenge the housing market – Yahoo! Finance
China’s trilemma—and a possible solution – Bernanke Blog

 

Global Growth in the 21st Century

Global growth is a-changin’, at least according to this WSJ article and the chart below where readers are urged to ignore the right-most area of the dataset since the future is notoriously hard to predict (almost always too positive and too benign), though that doesn’t discourage economists from doing so.

The other notations relate to Europe’s big post-1990s stumble that, perhaps not coincidentally, began at the same time as the common currency. China really has been remarkably consistent, this trait likely being inversely correlated with the accuracy of the economic data that is produced in the Middle Kingdom.

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Wednesday Morning Links

MUST READS
IMF says world at risk of ‘economic derailment’ – BBC
Wall St. bonuses fell 9% in 2015 to $146K average – Guardian
Are Central Banks Really Out of Ammunition? – Project Syndicate
This chart holds the key to predicting the next US recession – Yahoo!
U.S. May Be an Engine of the World Economy, But Perhaps Not For Long – WSJ
Iran Fires Test Missiles Bearing Phrase ‘Israel Must be Wiped Out’ – Vice News
What The Stunning Bernie Sanders Win In Michigan Means – Five Thirty Eight
Donald Trump got tons of good news in Tuesday’s election results – Vox
Donald Trump suits and ties are made in China – CNN/Money
The Oligarchs’ Super-PAC Anti-Trump Savagery – Pat Buchanan
Senate Republicans Face Cruz Conundrum – RCP
Marco on the brink – Politico

MARKETS/INVESTING
Stocks: 4 things to know before the open – CNN/Money
Fasten your seat belts – there’s turbulence ahead for stocks – MarketWatch
DoubleLine’s Gundlach says rally in risk assets nearing end – Reuters
Washington’s war against short-term stock traders – The Hill
Central Banks Are About To Leave Fiat Addicted Stock Markets In Agony – Alt-Market
What Doesn’t Kill Bull Market in S&P 500 May Make It Stronger – Bloomberg
Goldman rains on everyone’s parade, says commodities rally won’t last – Mining.com
Gold edges lower as expected ECB easing weighs on euro – Reuters
Gold’s Best Start Since 1974 Shows Not Just Inflation Hedge – Bloomberg
SGE Confirms To Continue Publish Withdraw Data! – BullionStar

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
The Folk Theory of business cycles – Noahpinion
Millennials Embrace the Side Job Economy – Fiscal Times
Wages: The shadow hanging over the jobs market – CNBC
Draghi Doesn’t Have What Europe Needs – Bloomberg
Portugal’s new president wants prudence, growth after crisis – AP
Canadian province Ontario plans to trial universal basic income – Independent
Third Republic: Germany Enters a Dangerous New Political Era – Spiegel
China Takes Hands-Off Approach as ‘Whack-a-Mole’ Property Market Returns – WSJ
Fed Vice Chair sees hints of too-low inflation moving up – AP
Playing Around With Prices Is a Bad Idea – Bloomberg

 
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