The Mess That Greenspan Made - Part 32

Wednesday Morning Links

MUST READS
‘Markets are falling apart,’ says Jeff Gundlach – CNBC
Junk bonds’ warning signs flashing red for global economy – Telegraph
Bitcoin creator ‘is 44-year-old Australian’, claims Wired – BBC
Bitcoin’s Creator Is Probably This Unknown Australian Genius – Wired
Australian police raid Sydney home of reported bitcoin creator – Reuters
Bitcoin price surges after Craig Wright exposed as creator Satoshi Nakamoto – City A.M.
What Hillary Clinton Didn’t Tell You in Her New York Times OpEd – Wall Street on Parade
The first financial world war has begun, over oil. Bet on the Saudis to win. – Fabius Maximus
Oil: WWJD–What would JD Rockefeller have Done? – Marc to Market
Here’s Why the Republican Party Is Terrified of Trump – Fiscal Times
The Polls May Be Underestimating Trump’s Support – The Atlantic
First They Came for the Muslims – Anti Media
Millennials – Bloomberg

MARKETS/INVESTING
U.S. stocks on track for third down day in a row – MarketWatch
If It Owns a Well or a Mine, It’s Probably in Trouble – NY Times
Kinder Morgan Cuts Dividend by 74 Percent to Conserve Cash – Bloomberg
Collapse Of U.S. Shale Oil Production Has Begun – SRSrocco Report
A Strong Dollar Hurts China More Than the U.S. – Bloomberg
Private Equity Fees Are Sky-High, Yes, but Look at Those Returns – NY Times
Even cheaper oil would do a world of good for everyone – MarketWatch
Gold gains but investors cautious on looming U.S. rate rise – Reuters
Chinese commodity demand: Crisis. What crisis? – Mining.com

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
Factors in long-term unemployment – Econbrowser
Why The Plunge In Manufacturing ISM Matters – Zero Hedge
Demographic Trends for the 50-and-Older Work Force – Advisor Perspectives
Sticking Points for a Global Climate Deal – Caixin Online
Studying in the US makes the Chinese more appreciative of China – Quartz
Masks, Purifiers and Condoms: Online Sales Spike as China’s Smog Thickens – WSJ
Denver housing market enters danger zone, economists say – Denver Post
ECB’s Nowotny Criticizes Market’s `Absurd’ Stimulus Expectations – Bloomberg
Strange Cases for Fed Rate Hikes: The Poor Savers Story – CEPR
Larry Summers and two groups unite against the Fed’s Yellen – MarketWatch

 

Oil Prices and Junk Bonds

Amid the “uneasy calm” in financial markets, as detailed by the Bank for International Settlements the other day in their quarterly report, comes news of an even deeper plunge in oil prices (with calls for $20 a barrel or below) and more distress in high yield bonds (an outsize portion of which is energy related). One of the driving forces behind these developments is the graphic below via this item at the WSJ.

I’d never seen these two curves side-by-side, but it tells a pretty compelling story about the global game of chicken now being played by the Saudis and shale oil producers in the U.S., importantly, along with their Wall Street financiers. Of course, it doesn’t help that the China slowdown appears to be for real and that central banks continued to be viewed as “the only game in town” when it comes to restoring the global economy to its former glory…

Tuesday Morning Links

MUST READS
China exports fall for fifth straight month – MarketWatch
Oil price could hit $20 as Opec ditches quotas – The Times
OPEC Takes Down Oil Majors on Lower-for-Even-Longer – Bloomberg
Deteriorating junk bonds flash warning signs for stocks – MarketWatch
Economist’s Criticism of Federal Reserve Policies Gains Ground – NY Times
Republican Ted Cruz vaults into first place in new Iowa poll – Reuters
Donald Trump’s Islamophobic rhetoric resonates with many Republicans – Vox
Wealthy Muslims helped Donald Trump build his empire – Quartz
HuffPost moves Trump to politics section after Muslim comments – The Hill
A Note on Trump: We Are No Longer Entertained – Huffington Post
Trump rejects criticism of his proposal to ban Muslims – AP
Anti-Trump Effort Launches Super PAC – WSJ
America and France Turn Right – RCP

MARKETS/INVESTING
Asian stocks drop in wake of oil-price plunge – MarketWatch
Hillary Clinton: How I’d Rein In Wall Street – NY Times
Oil tumbles to lowest level in 7 years – CNN/Money
Energy Stocks Drag Down Emerging Markets – Bloomberg
Here are the odds that U.S. stocks will rise in 2016 – MarketWatch
Mexico’s Central Bank Steps In as Peso Tumbles on Fed Rate Bets – Bloomberg
Gold steadies on dollar and shares; Fed rate hike view weighs – Reuters
Hedge Funds Again Hold Record Short Bets In Gold – CFTC – Kitco
Paper Money Versus The Gold Standard: An Explanation – Epic Times
Anglo American to shed 85,000 jobs – CNN/Money

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
When Inequality Kills – Project Syndicate
The neglected drop in Gross Planet Product – voxeu
Finland Wants to Replace Welfare With a Minimum Income – reason.com
Venezuela elections: Turning point for world’s worst economy? – CNN/Money
Japan’s Economy Wasn’t in Recession in 3rd Quarter, Data Show – Bloomberg
Muslim Minority Clashes with the ‘China Dream’ in Increasingly Wild West – Vice News
‘Feed the People Smog’: Beijing’s Red Alert Spurs Online Derision – WSJ
Mario Draghi, once a hero, faces ‘the new mortality’ – MarketWatch
Could Higher Interest Rates Lead to Higher Inflation? – WSJ

 

Monday Morning Links

MUST READS
BIS argues for tighter monetary policy – Financial Times
BIS: ‘Uneasy’ market calm masks debt timebomb – Telegraph
France elections: Le Pen says political elite ‘crumbling’ – BBC
Finland to Give Every Citizen, Rich or Poor, $870 a Month – TakePart
Turkey, Russia Fallout Over Downed Warplane Deepens – Bloomberg
Obama: Increase Gun Control, Reject Islamophobia – Slate
Obama’s not-so-peppy pep talk – Politico
End the Gun Epidemic in America – NY Times
The Most Pressing Issue in 95 Years – National Review
Clinton explains why she won’t say ‘radical Islam’ – CNN
Some Trump Backers Growing Wary of His Rhetoric – Real Clear Politics
From Risk to Guarded Expectation of Recession – Hussman Funds
The Cult of Draghi – Credit Bubble Bulletin

MARKETS/INVESTING
Global stock markets cheered by US jobs report – AP
S&P 500 will creep up to 2,200 in 2016, J.P. Morgan says – MarketWatch
Bond Trader Hubris Reaches Inflection Point as Fed Liftoff Looms – Bloomberg
Don’t Assume a Fed Action Will Move the Market – Shiller, NY Times
Emerging Market Debt Sales Are Down 98 Percent – Bloomberg
Oil prices stuck below $40 a barrel after OPEC decision – MarketWatch
Goldman Sachs: Oil Won’t Stabilize Until Late 2016 – Barron’s
Gold retreats from three-week high as U.S. jobs boost dollar – Reuters
Gold majors trading at just 4% of in-situ metal value – Mining.com
China’s Gold Army – BullionStreet

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
Preparing for the next recession – Washington Post
The Endless Parade of Recession Calls – Calculated Risk
US Exports & Manufacturing Debacle Covered up by Oil – Wolf Street
The Labor Force, Jobless Claims and the Business Cycle – Advisor Perspectives
South Africa Says Foreign Deposits Sufficient After Downgrade – Bloomberg
Venezuela’s opposition party wins parliament in a blow to Maduro – CNN
Chinese Demand for Aussie Homes Drops as Much 15%, McGrath Says – Bloomberg
Will El Nino hammer the housing market? – Orange County Register
Kuroda Lagging Behind ECB’s Negative Rates Shows Limited Options – Bloomberg
The folly of the Fed’s expected rate decision, in 1 graph – The Week

 

Terrorism and Faith in San Berdu

The Los Angeles Times covers last night’s vigil in San Bernardino mourning the loss of life due to what increasingly appears to be homegrown Islamic terrorism in the U.S.

A nice composite photo of the victims can be found here.

 
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