The precious metals commentary offered up by the mainstream financial media is getting more interesting by the day. Just this morning, this Bloomberg story lamented the loss in value incurred by central banks since the gold price peaked back in 2011.

The World Gold Council says they added 534.6 metric tons to reserves in 2012, the most in almost a half century, and expects purchases of 450 to 550 tons this year, valued now at as much as $25.3 billion.Central banks are the biggest losers, with about $560 billion of value erased since gold reached a record $1,921.15 an ounce in September 2011.

Well, yeah, since central banks are the biggest holders of gold, they’re the biggest losers over the last couple years, but they’re also the biggest winners over the last decade or so as the price rose five-fold from under $300 an ounce. But, the implication here is that recent buying of the metal by emerging market central banks was kind of dumb since many of those purchases were made at higher prices.

Well, here’s what was really dumb – Western central bank gold sales over the last decade at much lower prices (chart via the World Gold Council and average prices via Kitco):

Central Bank Gold Purchases

Later, the authors write:

The timing of the rout is surprising because the events that sustained the bull market in the last several years are still unresolved.

Yeah, it kind of makes you wonder.

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More Concern over Canada Home Prices

It looks like they’re really starting to get concerned north of the border as a seemingly indefatigable housing bubble is now showing many of the same signs seen elsewhere in the world over the last half decade that it’s about to meet its pin. The latest warnings come from this story in the Globe & Mail, from which the chart below was culled.

The report begins:

Canadians are obsessed with whether or not our housing market is going to suffer a “U.S.-style” correction. It’s by now widely accepted that corrections are happening in key Canadian cities. Sure, there are still pockets of strength – Calgary and the detached market in Toronto, for example – but most markets are seeing rising inventory and falling sales, which typically foretell price weakness.

Well, at least there’s no mention of a “permanently high plateau”.

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Thursday Morning Links

MUST READS
Fed Debate Moves to Extending Bond Buying – Bloomberg
UK economy avoids triple-dip recession – BBC
Austerity debate rages in Europe – CNN/Money
ECB says ditching austerity would not help euro zone – Reuters
Why the GOP Is Dragging Its Feet on Budget Talks – Fiscal Times
Public debt and economic growth, one more time – voxeu
The Economic Argument Is Over — And Paul Krugman Won – Daily Ticker
The Reinhart/Rogoff brawl – Washington Post
Gold and bitcoin make lousy money – MacroMania
Has the next crisis already begun? – MSN Money
Meet your new $100 bill – CNN/Money
Come Back to Gold – Mises

To find out what Tim thinks of today’s news, subscribe to Iacono Research

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil rises to near $92 on central bank hopes – AP
Gold rises on weak dollar, physical buying – Reuters
What Bad News? Markets Don’t Seem to Care – CNBC
Sell in May, Post-Election Year Edition – Stock Trader’s Almanac
Yen Rises as Japan Investors Cut Overseas Holdings – Bloomberg
U.S Mint Sales of Gold Coins at 3-Year High as Prices Drop – Businessweek
U.K. Royal Mint Gold Coin Sales More Than Tripled in April – Bloomberg
Comex Physical Drain Accelerates – Over $7.8B In Gold Disappears – BMT
Shortages of physical gold now a global phenomenon – Mineweb
Billionaire Paulson says he’s staying the course on gold – Reuters
Gold Is No Bubble Asset: Commerzbank – Commerzbank

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
Are Falling Inflation Expectations A Warning? – Capital Spectator
Unemployment misery deepens in Spain and Greece – CNN/Money
China cuts fuel prices amid weaker demand – xinhuanet
Italy’s New Leader Throws Down Gauntlet on Austerity – CNBC
Italy Led by Letta Brings Berlusconi Back as Winner – Bloomberg
Australia to buy Chinese government debt – Financial Times
Crisis for Europe as trust hits record low – Guardian
Foreclosure activity plunges in California with new laws in effect – LA Times
Deutsche Bank can’t shake L.A. claims over foreclosure blight – Reuters
How Much Has the Single Family Housing Market Shifted to Rentals? – Calculated Risk
Central Banks Load Up on Equities as Low Rates Kill Yields – Bloomberg
Possible Fed Successor Has Admirers and Foes – NY Times

 

Gold Buying in the East

A collection of photos from Grant Williams’ latest Things That Make You Go Hmmm… over at  Mauldin Economics in what should be considered a “must read” report for anyone interested in or invested in precious metals at this time.

Here’s another take on the gold price plunge from Howard Simons of Bianco Research:

As the odds against such a move are on the order of 20 trillion to 1, it had a lower probability of occurrence than randomly selecting a specific $1 bill out of a pile of singles representing the US National Debt. (See image, left.) Oh, by the way, the bills stacked in the image are $100 bills, so the pile from which you’d have to randomly pull that single $1 bill would be 100x higher — just sayin’.

Reference this graphic from Demonocracy, if necessary, to get the full impact.

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The Rich Get Richer – Part 63

The results of this new Pew Research study on changing wealth in America shouldn’t be too surprising as it covers the time period from 2009 to 2011 when equity markets were rebounding from the 2008 financial crisis and the housing market was still struggling.

Pew Wealth StudyDuring the first two years of the nation’s economic recovery, the mean net worth of households in the upper 7% of the wealth distribution rose by an estimated 28%, while the mean net worth of households in the lower 93% dropped by 4%, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of newly released Census Bureau data.

From 2009 to 2011, the mean wealth of the 8 million households in the more affluent group rose to an estimated $3,173,895 from an estimated $2,476,244, while the mean wealth of the 111 million households in the less affluent group fell to an estimated $133,817 from an estimated $139,896.

These wide variances were driven by the fact that the stock and bond market rallied during the 2009 to 2011 period while the housing market remained flat.

Affluent households typically have their assets concentrated in stocks and other financial holdings, while less affluent households typically have their wealth more heavily concentrated in the value of their home.

They note that during the period they studied, U.S. stocks rose by 34 percent whereas home prices actually fell by 5 percent, meaning that, if home prices continue to rise, the lower 93 percent should see a pretty good boost to their net worth the next time around.

Nonetheless, the message remains the same. Paraphrasing Mel Brooks, “It’s good to be rich”.

The Retirement Gamble

A new Frontline documentary premiered last night dubbed The Retirement Gamble and, as is the case for anything Frontline produces, it is well worth a look as it sheds some much needed light on the retirement industry and mutual funds with high fees.

Watch The Retirement Gamble on PBS. See more from FRONTLINE.

The gist of the story is that fees are high, hard to figure out, and oftentimes not disclosed to people who, basically, have no choice other than their employers’ 401k plan where managed funds with high expense ratios are pushed rather than low-cost index funds.

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