Now a week removed from the worst precious metals sell-off in three decades, one thing is clear – gold and silver continues to flow from weak hands to strong hands, primarily from the West to the East, as lower prices have prompted record buying in Asia and the Middle East while U.S. investors in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) continue to sell the metal.

Gold VaultThose who bought their GLD shares last fall are selling at steep losses.

This appears to be a classic case of not understanding what you own as most institutional investors and money managers who bought GLD late last year probably never really liked the idea of buying gold and, now, they just want out.

Presumably, many bought GLD on the recommendation of investment banks such as Goldman Sachs who, last fall, were predicting further gains for the yellow metal as the next round of Fed money printing got underway.

That didn’t work out the way investment banks thought it would.

So, here we are, a full week after the gold price plunged to almost $1,320 an ounce in panic selling and GLD investors continue to sell gold, many of them believing that they’re lucky to be able to get out now, at slightly higher prices than last week’s lows, making their realized losses a little less painful.

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Slowing Growth Around the World

More evidence that government and central bank policy makers don’t seem to know what they’re doing in their many attempts to right what is wrong in the global economy comes via this summary of the International Monetary Fund’s recent downgrades to forecasts for economic growth in this item at the Economist.

You’d think that economists would be catching on by now since, for example, they continue to forecast 3-4 percent growth in the U.S. a couple years out, but, it just never comes. Now four years after the 2008 recession ended, it looks like the U.S will see economic growth of less than two percent which, when factoring in population growth, is barely an expansion.

And, of course, this modest level of growth wouldn’t be possible at all without nearly a trillion dollars a year in deficit spending and another trillion in Fed money printing.

Not to fear, however, as economists are about to revise the way they calculate economic growth and, just as the inflation calculation is repeatedly modified to produce a lower number, we’re about to see a surge in U.S. economic output (and growth) as heralded in Huzzah! The U.S. economy is 3 percent bigger than we thought at the Washington Post.

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Tuesday Morning Links

China manufacturing expansion slows – CNN/Money
Germany’s private sector shrinks, eurozone contracts – Guardian
Spain population shrinks amid crisis, soaring unemployment – Reuters
European Austerity Does a 180, Lagarde Weighs In – Fiscal Times
Wall Street Announces the Death of Austerity – CNBC
Who Is Defending Austerity Now? – The Atlantic
The Incredible Shrinking Budget Deficit – NY Times
The Euro: a Step Toward the Gold Standard? – ThinkMarkets
Is Apple souring retail investors on stocks? – MarketWatch
Gold sale not a priority: Cyprus finance minister – Reuters
Jeff Christian: The Reason Gold Prices Fell So Hard – Bullionvault
How the bankers crashed the gold market – again! – Mineweb
Asian bargain hunters pile into gold – Financial Times

To find out what Tim thinks of today’s news, subscribe to Iacono Research

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil drops below $88 as China manufacturing slows – AP
Gold falls on stronger dollar, ETFs outflows – Reuters
The Perils of Investing in What You Know – NY Times
What a sell-side Apple analyst thinks the buy side is thinking – Fortune
Record Freeze in U.S. Extending Wheat Crop Damage – Bloomberg
Here’s What Could Push Dollar-Yen Past 100 – CNBC
Gold bars in Dubai disappear, some at 750% premiums – Mineweb
Gold’s Declining Price Is a Reversion to the Mean – NY Times
This Is What Gold Rush Asia 2013 Looks Like – GoldSilverWorlds
Inventory Update: Silver Eagles on Allocation – Texas Precious Metals
After the flash crash in gold – MarketWatch

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
News Flash: Economists Clueless – Dollar Collapse
Huzzah! Economy is 3 percent bigger than we thought – Washington Post
An Economist’s Mea Culpa: I Relied on Reinhart and Rogoff – CSSL
S&P: More than one-third chance of Japan downgrade – Reuters
Japanese Inflation Expectations, Revisited – Liberty Street Economics
Global Status Quo Strategy: Do More of What Has Failed Spectacularly – oftwominds
German ‘Alternative’: Parallel Currency Idea Carries Great Risks – Spiegel
The Risk Profile of Chinese Shadow Banking – Project Syndicate
Faith in home price appreciation is religion in California – O.C. Housing News
The implications of medieval monetary practices for modern policy – voxeu
Everything you think you know about the Fed is wrong – Behavioral Macro
What scheduling conflict? – FT Alphaville

 

Existing Home Sales Slip, Prices Rise

The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell 0.6 percent last month, from a downwardly revised, seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.95 million units in February to 4.92 million units in March.

Home prices continued to rise due to low inventory, record low mortgage rates, record government guarantees of new mortgages, record purchases of mortgage debt by the Federal Reserve, strong demand from Wall Street investors, and what are clearly signs of speculative fervor in parts of the country.

Existing Home Sales

The number of unsold homes increased 1.6 percent in March to 1.93 million, representing a 4.7 months supply, up from 4.6 months in February and part of a normal seasonal rise as the inventory figures are not adjusted for seasonal variations. But, only 30,000 units were added to inventory last month, far lower than the average March increase of 100,000 units.

The median home price rose from $173,600 to $184,300, a gain of 11.8 percent from a year ago and the biggest annual increase since a 12.8 percent gain during the housing bubble heyday in late-2005. Distressed homes accounted for 21 percent of all sales in March, up from 25 percent in February, and all-cash sales were unchanged at 30 percent while investors were responsible for 19 percent of sales, down from 22 percent the month prior.

On the Greater Fool Theory for Gold

A different perspective on valuing gold and the oft-cited reason (particularly over the last week or so) why the gold price has risen over the years, namely, that a greater fool has paid more for the stuff, is provided in this commentary over at the Cobden Center:

GoldCan gold be valued properly?

Seems more like a zen koan than a question with a clear answer, doesn’t it? At one level, the critics are undoubtedly right: with no income stream and superabundant existing stocks, gold is entirely at the mercy of perceptions. Still, it’s also true that greater fools have shown up with reassuring regularity for the last few thousand years. Is that likely to change any time soon? We’re probably each obliged to answer that question individually. And to accept the consequences.

I’ve had a range of reactions when the subject of valuing gold comes up and I assert that there really is no way of valuing it. That makes a lot of investment pros very uncomfortable and is one of the main reasons why U.S. investors own very little of the stuff.

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[Some excerpts from the latest issue of the Weekend Update at Iacono Research.]

Massive selling of leveraged long futures positions in gold and silver markets on Monday sent prices tumbling after the first wave of selling on the Friday before as precious metals saw their steepest two-day decline in more than three decades. Over just these two trading days, the gold price fell more than 15 percent, while silver tumbled nearly 20 percent amid more talk of market manipulation as ETF investors continued to exit positions.

India Gold Demand SurgeLower futures market prices led to an unprecedented surge in physical buying, and mounting evidence of the disconnect between the price of physical gold and silver and the “paper” variety was clear to see in widespread shortages of bullion products and soaring premiums.

After a two-day plunge of almost $240 an ounce, the gold price rose $80 in recent days, but ended the week down 4.8 percent, falling from $1,477.00 an ounce to $1,406.50. Similarly, silver tumbled more than $5 an ounce but then clawed back about a quarter of that decline, ending 9.9 percent lower when the week was over, down from $25.85 an ounce to $23.29.

Spot gold is now down 16.0 percent for the year, some 26.9 percent below its all-time high from late-summer of 2011, and the silver price has tumbled 23.3 percent in 2013, a whopping 52.9 percent below its record high set almost exactly two years ago.

As shown below via StockCharts, the gold price plunged (red arrow) and trading volume surged (gray arrow) as margin calls from market action on Friday forced more traders to liquidate long positions on Monday morning and more stop positions were triggered.

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