The Mess That Greenspan Made - Part 8

Thursday Morning Links

Share prices continue to slide – BBC
Fear Goes Viral on Wall Street – Fiscal Times
Risk of Deflation Feeds Global Fears – WSJ
What the heck should the Fed do now? – CNN/Money
Falling oil prices shake up global economies – AP
World economy so damaged it may need permanent QE – Telegraph
Treasuries Gain as Oil Drops Below $80 While Stocks Slide – Bloomberg
The Depressing Signals Markets Are Sending About the Global Economy – NY Times
This is who’s getting really walloped by the stock slide – MarketWatch
Central bankers may have no quick fix as markets swoon – Reuters
Dallas County May Declare State of Disaster From Ebola Virus – Bloomberg
White House shifts into crisis mode on Ebola response – Reuters
ISIS Delivers ‘Shock and Awe’ with Arms from U.S., China, and Russia – Fiscal Times

World stock market sell-off deepens – AP
Investors Are Scared, With Good Reason – Bloomberg
Part of the Problem: Stocks Are Expensive – NY Times
October’s Wild Ride Isn’t Over Yet – Bloomberg
Market Swoon Adds to Woes for Hedge Fund Industry – Barron’s
Bond Yields Worldwide Plunge on Global Growth Concern – Bloomberg
Gold steadies, supported by global slowdown concerns – Reuters
Switzerland’s central bank calls to thwart gold vote –
Gold Posts Longest Rally in Two Months on Haven Buying – Bloomberg
Gold Rises As Stocks, European Bonds Again See Sharp Falls – Gold Core
Gold imports soar 450% in India – Mineweb

US jobless aid applications fall to 14-year low – AP
The U.S. Economic Recovery Is Still On Food Stamps – RCM
Greece Still Needs Intensive Care – Bloomberg
China Inc’s spending cuts deepest in six years as economy slows – Reuters
Venezuela Goes From Bad to Worse as Oil Prices Plummets – Bloomberg
When It Comes to Beheadings, ISIS Has Nothing Over Saudi Arabia – Newsweek
Don’t Mess With Saudis in Oil Bear Market Global Shakeout – Bloomberg
No matter what stats show, Canada’s housing boom is about to end – FP
U.S. foreclosure activity falls to eight-year low – Reuters
How Dodd-Frank Spurs Big Banks To Add Systemic Risks – IBD
Yellen Gets Swedish Lessons From Most-Important Data – Bloomberg
What Options Are Left for Central Banks? – of two minds


Big Misses for Retail Sales, NY Manufacturing

The Commerce Department reported(.pdf) that retail sales unexpectedly fell last month, down 0.3 percent in September after an increase of 0.6 percent in August. The declines were broad-based and this is a possible indication of slowing growth in the U.S. economy.

Excluding autos, September sales fell 0.2 percent after a gain of 0.3 percent and, excluding both autos and gasoline, sales fell 0.1 percent following a jump of 0.5 percent in August. The consensus estimate for the latter, so-called “core” retail sales, was for a gain of 0.5 percent, so, this report is being rightly viewed as a fairly big miss.

Flagging auto sales and lower gasoline prices (both down 0.8 percent) were key drivers in the overall decline, but a sharp slowdown in clothing store sales (down 1.2 percent), home improvement and internet sales (both down 1.1 percent), and furniture sales (down 0.8 percent) provide fresh evidence that the U.S. economy may struggle late in the year.

In other economic news, manufacturing activity in the New York has slowed sharply in recent weeks according to the New York Fed’s Empire State index that tumbled from a five-year high of 27.5 in September to just 6.2 in October. New orders plunged from +16.9 to -1.7 (indicating contraction), shipments fell from 27.1 to 1.1, and the inventories index rose from -7.6 to +2.2 (from contraction to expansion).

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Wednesday Morning Links

Second Texas Health Worker Tests Positive for Ebola – NY Times
Oil Prices Tumble, Posting Biggest One-Day Drop in Two Years – WSJ
Worrying for Saudi, U.S. oil output cuts could take a while – Reuters
Crashing oil prices could crush Vladimir Putin – CNN/Money
IEA 2014 oil-demand forecast at weakest since 2009 – MarketWatch
Toxic Mix for Fracking: Oil Price Collapse & Junk Bond Insanity – Wolf Street
If Oil Plunge Continues, “Now May Be A Time To Panic” For Shale Companies – Zero Hedge
Crumbling U.S. Fix Seen With Global Trillions of Dollars – Bloomberg
Fed Is Silent on Doomsday Book, a Blueprint for Fighting Crises – NY Times
Richest 1% own 50 percent of world wealth- Credit Suisse report – RT News
Where Do the World’s Wealthiest People Live? – WSJ
Why is Football More Popular than Ever? – Marginal Revolution
The rise of unretirement – LA Times

European stocks wallow, Asia gains amid oil slump – AP
Bond yields, oil prices fall as gloom persists – Reuters
Pillars of Equity Rally Fall Away – Variant Perception
These charts explain when to call a bottom for the S&P – MarketWatch
BIS warns on ‘violent’ reversal of global markets – Telegraph
Stock market scare: 3 key numbers to watch – CNN/Money
Treasuries Extend Gains as Retail Sales Fall More Than Forecast – Bloomberg
Gold Firmer, Hits 4-Week High, Amid Increasing Fear in Market Place – Kitco
Lawsuits Proceed: “Secret Scheme To Manipulate The Price Of Silver” – GoldCore
Expect big silver price surge if gold stays positive – Mineweb
Investors sold heavily into gold, silver price rally –

The State of Macro, Six Years Later – NY Times
The Inflation Imputation – Real Clear Markets
Why Can’t People Feel the Economic Recovery? – Atlantic
Is the Surge in Capital Goods Orders Due to Malinvestment? – Mises
The $11 Trillion Advantage That Shields U.S. From Turmoil – Bloomberg
Slow Rise in Prices Shows China’s Economy Is Still Struggling – WSJ
Schaeuble Says Germany Will Stay the Course in Difficult Times – Businessweek
German Bond Yields Drop to Records on Economy – Bloomberg
Triple dip for US housing is a questionmark for the recovery – Arabian Money
Mortgage Rates Plunge to Lowest Rate in 16 Months – Zillow Blog
Fed’s Williams downplays global risks, eyes U.S. inflation – Reuters
So Much for Rate Increases… – PragCap


Peter Thiel on “the Government Bubble”

Billionaire Silicon Valley venture capitalist and hedge fund manager Peter Thiel talks with the folks at CNBC about central bank money printing and asset valuations.

Thiel notes:

We’ve been in this world where people have been printing money at the Fed for six years and it is a very strange question of what happens when it ends … I think the thing that is most distorted is the bond market and fixed income, and perhaps less on the equity side, but we certainly are back in a government bubble of massive size.

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