REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

On “Flexible Inflation Targeting”

In the years ahead we’ll probably hear a lot more about the Federal Reserve’s new “flexible inflation targeting” approach as it relates to their deliberations on monetary policy and this Bloomberg story by Fed watcher Craig Torres gives us a preview of what we’re likely to hear this spring, that is, if gasoline prices wind up where nearly every analyst thinks they’ll be.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke spent six years pushing for an inflation goal. Now that he has it, some investors are betting he’ll breach the 2 percent target in the short run to lower unemployment.

The Fed chairman told lawmakers last week that an increase in energy costs will boost inflation “temporarily while reducing consumers’ purchasing power.” He also said the central bank will adopt a “balanced approach” as it pursues its twin goals of price stability and full employment, which it defines as a jobless rate of between 5.2 percent and 6 percent.

“The chairman seemed to suggest they will tolerate a misdemeanor on inflation as unemployment continues to fall toward their goal” over several years, said Mark Spindel, chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital, a hedge fund that manages $250 million in Washington.

Policy makers at a March 13 meeting probably won’t deviate from their commitment to hold interest rates close to zero at least through late 2014, even if their forecast shows a burst of energy-driven inflation, said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC in Jersey City, New Jersey. They’ll probably be more concerned that rising prices will hold back real spending, impeding growth and improvement in the job market, he said.

“The chairman said, ‘We think it is transitory, we are sticking to our guns, we are going to focus on the drag on income,’” Crandall said. Bernanke explained how under a strategy of flexible inflation targeting, “a temporary spike in the price indexes can be a reason for the central bank to be more generous rather than less,” Crandall said.

What’s funny – well, that is, unless you happen to be a senior living on a fixed income – is that the Fed’s own projections for unemployment paint a pretty grim picture of what the U.S. labor market will look like going forward, meaning that, this “flexible approach” to balancing their stable prices/low unemployment mandate is likely to result in higher inflation, perhaps much higher inflation.







Well, at least one of them is back…

Yesterday’s 204 point plunge for the Dow Jones Industrial Index has stock investors wondering whether volatility is about to make a big comeback after three months of relative calm. The last 200+ point down day for the index was on November 23rd and, since that time, it’s been a losing battle for the short sellers, but their prospects may soon change.

 

Wednesday Morning Links

MUST READS
Tension before Greece debt swap – BBC
Stocks rebound but Greek debt in spotlight – Globe & Mail
Spain Lags Italy as Growth Concern Halts Rally – Bloomberg
Rift Grows Between Germany’s Bundesbank and ECB – Spiegel
Obama unveils housing initiatives for military, FHA – Washington Post
As Pension Crisis Looms, Golden Years Fade to Black – Bloomberg
Why Liquidity Is No Longer Enough – Business Insider
The next crisis to avoid is in student loans – Fortune
Debt To Grow Faster Than Economy for Foreseeable Future – Mercatus Center
Faber: How money printing divides societies and tests investors – Arabian Money
Cause, effect, & the fallacy of a return to normalcy – The Burning Platform
What’s Your Personal Inflation Rate? – Time
The Real ‘Price’ Of Gold – Seeking Alpha

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil prices rebound on fresh concern over Iran – AFP
Gold recovers as dollar retreats, buyers step in – Reuters
Death For Buy & Hold? Where Is Thy Sting? – Capital Spectator
Why the sell-off is just getting started – MSN Money
Oil prices and the U.S. economy – Econbrowser
Are alternative investments for you? – MarketWatch
US 2012 Oil Demand Seen At 15-Year Low – Dow Jones
On China And The End Of The Commodity Super-Cycle – Zero Hedge
People always look for the most stable kind of money – usually gold or silver – Mineweb
Gold market sentiment finally improving – MarketWatch
Dennis Gartman and the goldbugs – FT Alphaville

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
A tale of two depressions redux – voxeu
The Real Cost of Living: $150,000 Minimum – Fiscal Times
There’s Something Weird Going On With The Economic Data – BI
Euro-Zone Central Bank System Massively Imbalanced – Spiegel
China lambasts U.S. trade bill, won’t adjust yuan – Reuters
A Republican backlash brews over IMF and Europe – Washington Post
Australia GDP Grows at Half the Pace Economists Forecast – Bloomberg
Fewest O.C. homes for sale since 2005 – O.C. Register
A Huge Spike in Repeat Foreclosures – CNBC
Federal Reserve under attack … again – CNN/Money
Banks’ Deliberate Mispricing of Risk For Personal Gain – Jesse’s Cafe
After 3 years, we’re all hooked on free money – MarketWatch
Bernanke Seen Accepting Faster Inflation – Bloomberg

 

Unsustainable Consumption

Every time I read a story like this one today in which “leading economists” talk about the importance of the American consumer in powering economic growth or when talking heads on TV casually note that consumption accounts for 70 percent of all economic activity here in the U.S., I think back to this data series:

I don’t know what would make anyone think that the 70 percent figure is anything but worrisome, especially with government spending accounting for another 20 percent or more. That leaves the combination of domestic investment and net exports contributing less than 10 percent (net exports being negative for quite some time), yet, economists and news anchors repeat this “consumers account for 70 percent of the economy” over and over as if it were some kind of economic law which it is certainly not.

Future historians will no doubt look back someday while scratching their heads and say, “I don’t know why on earth they would have thought that was sustainable”.

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This Bloomberg report on the impact lower bonuses are having on Wall Street’s finest serves as another reminder that, like elected officials in Washington, Americans throughout much of the rest of the country have more of a spending problem than a revenue problem.

Andrew Schiff, brother of  doomsayer Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital, laments the high cost of private school tuition, living in New York City, and four month long summer vacations in Connecticut that have become difficult to bear on his $350,000 income.

While Andrew won’t get much sympathy from the rest of the country that struggles to make ends meet on a 10th of that income or less – and that is, perhaps, the more important story here – it does illustrate the point that, at just about every income level, many Americans are doomed to financial failure simply because they spend too much money.

I’ll never forget Lakers owner Jerry Buss who, back in the 1980s, famously said that all you have to do to become wealthy is to spend less than you make and to keep doing this over many, many years.

It’s a simple formula, actually.

Yet, in a society where image seems to be everything and buying things you don’t need with money you don’t have is a way of life, that simple wisdom seems about as relevant today as the idea of paying off your mortgage.

I find it hard to conjure up much sympathy for people like Schiff and the primary reason why is that, for decades, I’ve approached personal finances in a completely different way, one like Jerry Buss recommended and which may someday soon come back in style.

(more…)

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Can Consumer Confidence Go Any Higher?

The final February data on consumer confidence is now in over at Gallup and they report that, after the American mood darkened slightly a few weeks ago, economic confidence ended with its sixth straight monthly gain as depicted below.

What’s interesting about the graphic (as well as with other similar surveys) is that we’ve been here before but have never been able to move higher.

In a separate, less frequently conducted survey at Gallup, the percentage of Americans who think the U.S. economy is growing has reached a new recovery high at 40 percent. While this is good news, it’s worth pointing out that some 46 percent of those polled say the economy is still either in recession or depression.

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