Apple and Gold

It looks like Apple (AAPL) is determined to get below the $400 mark and, given the recent gold market swoon, refreshing a chart that appeared here a month ago seemed in order.

All I’ve got to say is, based on the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) above, it’s about time that blasted gold bubble finally burst.

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The Purchasing Power of Gold

Any student of monetary history should find this chart created by the folks at Sharelynx (spotted in this item over at GoldSilverWorlds) absolutely fascinating.

My guess is that, what little appreciation most have for this sort of thing is limited to the last few decades, during which time it has been concluded that prior history doesn’t matter.

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The recent gold sell-off has spurred an avalanche of commentary on the merits of including the precious metal in one’s investment portfolio and, not surprisingly, there has been a fair amount of gloating by those who never thought much of the idea in the first place.

A plunge of over $200 an ounce in just two days and a gold price that is now almost 30 percent below its 2011 record high has many pundits declaring victory over a metal that, aside from jewelry and limited industrial use, has little value.

Little value, that is, aside from functioning as money and a store of value for thousands of years.

The fact that, to some extent, gold is in competition with current day money gets little attention from the yellow metal’s detractors.

Rather, most who now kick gold while it’s down (after 13 years of impressive gains) focus on the world’s economy and global financial system having sufficiently healed after the multiple crises of a few years ago as reason not to be fearful any longer.

Fear, they say, is the reason that people buy gold and, now that things are looking up, there is little reason to own it.

A lot of investors seem to have come to that same conclusion.

[To continue reading this article, please visit Seeking Alpha.]

A view of the gold market from the other side of the world.

This is getting more interesting by the day, that is, now that the shock is wearing off.

As for the sell-off, some perspective from Russell Rhoads of the CBOE Option Institute:

Friday was a 4.88 standard deviation move in the price of gold. For simplicity’s sake let’s call it a five standard deviation move. Statistically we get a five standard deviation move approximately once every 4,776 years. So we should not expect another move like this out of the price of gold until May 17, 6789. … Currently the two-day price change in GLD is $16.65, which can be converted to just over eight standard deviations. I wanted to share what this comes to, but the table I use only goes up to seven standard deviations. Let’s just say the sun is expected to burn out first.’

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Wednesday Morning Links

MUST READS
New Trouble for Euro in Portugal – NY Times
Goldman CFO: Still ‘very close’ to crisis – AP
Whispers of a Golden Whale Cross Wall Street – CNBC
Cyprus Finance Minister Sees Gold Sale Within Next Months – Bloomberg
Influential Reinhart-Rogoff Study on Austerity May Be Flawed – Fiscal Times
How Much Unemployment Was Caused by Reinhart and Rogoff’s Arithmetic Mistake? – CEPR
Researchers Replicate Reinhart-Rogoff and There Are Serious Problems. – Next New Deal
Reinhart, Rogoff Admit Excel Mistake, Rebut Other Critiques – WSJ
Of Reinhart & Rogoff & the Emperor’s New Clothes – Azizonomics
Swiss Bank Data: German Tax Officials Launch Nationwide Raids – Spiegel
The Roman Emperors of today – The Real Asset Co.
The Time is for Turning – aucontrarian
The Bitcoin Money Myth – Mises

To find out what Tim thinks of today’s news, subscribe to Iacono Research

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil falls to near $87 on growth concerns – AP
Gold rises; physical buyers emerge from lows – Reuters
Premarket: Stocks headed for a pullback – CNN/Money
Should investors sell in May and go away? – USA Today
The Market Is Flashing Signs Of ‘Deep Instability’ – BI
Transport weakness: Dow Theory non-confirmation brewing – MarketWatch
As global price slumps, “Abenomics” risks drive Japan gold bugs – Reuters
Gold bears emerge but bullish long term fundamentals remain – Mineweb
The gold price crash is further evidence of market rigging – Telegraph
“People Running Through The Gate” To Buy Gold Bullion – GoldCore
You Can Bet On Gold Glittering Again – Seeking Alpha
Physical Bullion Demand on Fire – Numismaster

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
The Real Reason Obama Lowered His GDP Estimate – Fiscal Times
Europe faces threat of full-fledged depression – MarketWatch
France follows IMF in slashing growth forecasts – AP
Merkel Says Austerity Requires Sacrifices for Growth – Bloomberg
Capital Study: Chinese Investment in Europe Hits Record High – Spiegel
IMF Warns Of ‘Dangerous’ Recovery, Cuts Growth Estimates – Forbes
Felons in Charge of Our Largest Financial Institutions – USA Watchdog
Fed Officials Stress Need for QE After Jobs Slowdown – Bloomberg
Central bank stimulus under the spotlight at IMF, G20 – Reuters
Yellen and the Reach for Yield – Fed Watch

 

More Startling Student Loan Statistics

In this story from the other day, University of California at San Diego economist James Hamilton takes a look at some of the latest data on student loans and, you guessed it, things are worse than you might think (or, at least, than I thought).

As shown above, when excluding those student loans that are not yet in repayment, the default rate isn’t in the teens (as widely reported), it’s more like 30 percent – nearly a third. Presumably, this report about waiving the taxes due on forgiven student loan debt in the new White House budget is a response to this situation.

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