Well, That Was Interesting

The next day or so should be fairly exciting for financial markets as developments in the on-again, off-again rescue of the European public debt market reach some sort of a climax. Like most other assets, gold has become quite volatile as of late, surging by almost $20 an ounce earlier today and then diving about $25 an ounce in short order after the European Central Bank announced another interest rate cut.

The gold price is rebounding a bit now and commodity prices are mostly positive, but equity markets appear headed lower as U.S. markets prepare to open. A seat belt and a bottle of Maalox might not be a bad idea for the next 30 hours or so.

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When Guarantees are Not Loans

Since Bloomberg’s  Secret Fed Loans Gave Banks $13 Billion Undisclosed to Congress article appeared last week, apparently a lot of people (including The Daily Show’s Jon Stewart) have been going around saying that the nearly $8 trillion in loans and guarantees made by the Fed were actually loans, when anyone who’s seen a chart like the one below would know immediately that this was not the case – loans at the crisis peak were under $2 trillion.

Not that a little under $2 trillion in newly printed money to bail out the big banks is all that much better than just under $8 trillion, but, it’s important to get the facts straight. As you might conclude yourself by perusing the many items in the previous links post, the Fed did a good job by not naming Bloomberg in their letter to Congress and addressing criticism of Fed emergency lending in general so that they could lump Bloomberg’s report (which, was not in error) along with the rest of them, many of which were in error.

Fed Dollar Swaps Over Time

Since reading about the central bank dollar swap program announced the other day and that it really isn’t anything new, just the resurrection of a 2008-era crisis facility, plotting these swap lines versus everything else on the Fed’s balance sheet seemed like a good idea.

As shown above, the program “sprang to life” in December 2008 and, based on what’s happened in recent days, it looks like it just might spring to life again in the period ahead.

Europe’s “Pigheaded Brinksmanship”

This week’s edition of The Economist is chock full of stories about the euro zone’s current sovereign debt troubles and their flagging currency, the cover story asking the same question that is no doubt on the minds of many bond traders these days.

Past financial crises show that this downward spiral can be arrested only by bold policies to regain market confidence. But Europe’s policymakers seem unable or unwilling to be bold enough. The much-ballyhooed leveraging of the euro-zone rescue fund agreed on in October is going nowhere. Euro-zone leaders have become adept at talking up grand long-term plans to safeguard their currency—more intrusive fiscal supervision, new treaties to advance political integration. But they offer almost no ideas for containing today’s conflagration.

Germany’s cautious chancellor, Angela Merkel, can be ruthlessly efficient in politics: witness the way she helped to pull the rug from under Silvio Berlusconi. A credit crunch is harder to manipulate. Along with leaders of other creditor countries, she refuses to acknowledge the extent of the markets’ panic (see article). The European Central Bank (ECB) rejects the idea of acting as a lender of last resort to embattled, but solvent, governments. The fear of creating moral hazard, under which the offer of help eases the pressure on debtor countries to embrace reform, is seemingly enough to stop all rescue plans in their tracks. Yet that only reinforces investors’ nervousness about all euro-zone bonds, even Germany’s, and makes an eventual collapse of the currency more likely.

This cannot go on for much longer. Without a dramatic change of heart by the ECB and by European leaders, the single currency could break up within weeks.

There’s also this story that, just in case you didn’t get the message from above, reiterates the point that “the risk that the currency disintegrates within weeks is alarmingly high”.

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Well, it seems that the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street movement might just have discovered some common ground in  Memphis, Tennessee, at least according to this Associated Press report from a few hours ago.

Occupy Memphis member Mallory Pope had just finished telling a group of about 75 tea party followers Thursday night that politicians should not allow themselves to be influenced by lobbyists and unions when she received an unexpected invitation.

“It sounds to me that y’all ought to be joining us,” said Jerry Rains, a 64-year-old computer programmer and tea party member. “You have a lot of the same goals we have, which is to take our country back.”

Pope and fellow Occupy Memphis protester Tristan Tran had a lively, sometimes strained and confrontational, but mostly civil discussion with members of the Mid-South Tea Party at a municipal meeting hall outside Memphis.

The factions saw eye-to-eye on some issues and clashed on others. And, while the young speakers didn’t change many minds, they did earn praise from the tea party members for their passion, honesty and courage.

The 21-year-old University of Memphis students had been invited by the tea party group to talk about the goals of the Occupy movement. The invitation was extended after a discussion between members of both groups on the tea party’s website, meeting organizer Jim Tomasik said.

At least they’re talking and, given the dim prospects for any substantive improvement in the U.S. economy, they’re likely to talk more and more in the years ahead, hopefully culminating in a third political party. No, that’s probably just wishful thinking.

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Occupy Wall Street vs. the Tea Party

Spotted over at Barry’s Big Picture blog is this comparison of the Occupy Wall Street movement and the Tea Party. I can’t say that there was anything really surprising in it, however, they may have taken the “hipster” stereotype a bit too far when they said “unemployed and looking to live off government aid”. At least I hope they did…

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