REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

End the Unpopular Fed?

This week has turned out to be a horrible one for Fed chief Ben Bernanke who set the wheels in motion last Friday when he taped that 60 Minutes interview that has been roundly ridiculed since it aired on Sunday. While economists around the world may be marveling at Bernanke’s resolve, denials of money printing and 100 percent confidence that inflation will never pose a threat to the U.S. economy have not gone over so well with the public at large.

The latest evidence of such comes via this report at the Washington Post (with Bloomberg) today in which recent polling reveals that most Americans think the country might be better off without the central bank as we’ve come to know and love it.

Americans say the Fed shouldn’t retain its current structure of independence. Asked if the central bank should be more accountable to Congress, left independent or abolished entirely, 39 percent said it should be held more accountable and 16 percent that it should be abolished. Only 37 percent favor the status quo.

In a previous poll, conducted Oct. 7-10, 35 percent of Americans said the Fed should be radically overhauled, while 8 percent said it should be abolished.

Republicans and independents are more likely to support ending the Fed, with 19 percent of independents, 16 percent of Republicans, and 12 percent of Democrats wanting to do away with the central bank. Among those who identify themselves as supporters of the Tea Party movement, 21 percent want to abolish the Fed.

As if all that isn’t bad enough, news came late yesterday that, next month, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) will become chairman of the House subcommittee that oversees the Federal Reserve. Details are in this story at Bloomberg/Businessweek (is there anyone that Bloomberg isn’t teaming up with these days) and one can only imagine how Bernanke will feel in 2011 sitting across the room at hearings chaired by the guy who wrote the book “End the Fed“.







Mefo Bonds and the ECB

One can learn quite a bit about the European divide over bailing out profligate governments in this Der Spiegel story about German Central Bank Chief Axel Weber (who may or may not succeed Jean Claude Trichet as head of the European Central Bank). The part about Weber’s 86–year old predecessor at the Bundesbank, Helmut Schlesinger, is  very enlightening.

Schlesinger had hoped that the European Central Bank would unwaveringly pursue the same policies as the Bundesbank. But he has had his doubts ever since the euro started to stagger under the pressure of the current crisis.

“It was right to introduce a bailout package for Greece and the euro zone,” he says, “but wrong for the European Central Bank to commit itself by showing a willingness to purchase government bonds.”

In Schlesinger’s opinion, this breaks a taboo commonly referred to in Germany as the Mefo bond. Mefo is an acronym for a shell corporation called the Metallurgische Forschungsgesellschaft (Metallurgical Research Company), which was founded by the Nazis. The company issued bonds which the central bank of the German Reich used in the 1930s to finance the country’s military buildup. In order to ease the burden on the government budget, the Nazis started up the printing presses.

Schlesinger warns that something similar is now threatening to happen in the euro zone. “Apparently, outside Germany they haven’t realized to what extent central bank financing of the (member) states erodes confidence in the value of the currency,” he says. “This creates a dangerous incentive to continue to increase government debt.”

As is the case for so many other aspects of German life, events that occurred  four or more decades ago weigh heavily today, their aversion to wanton use of the printing press a response to the Weimar Republic in the 1920s and, now we learn, the Nazis in the 1930s.

Of course, things are completely opposite in the U.S. as the lack of money printing as the cause for so much suffering  in the 1930s is indelibly etched into  Ben Bernanke’s head.

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Both Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) Representative Ron Paul (R_TX) had a few thoughts to share this week on how they see things these days, neither thinking that the direction that the nation is currently headed is very good. First up, Sanders rails against the influence of wealthy Americans and the shrinking middle class.

The numbers he cites really are startling – the top one percent earn 23.5 percent of all income, more than all of the bottom 50 percent, and the top one-tenth of one percent earns about 12 cents of every dollar. Hmmm… Maybe their taxes should be raised.

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Hoenig Takes on the Big Banks

Kansas City Federal Reserve President Thomas Hoenig takes on the too big to fail banks a thousand miles to the East in this New York Times op-ed today.

The world has experienced a severe financial crisis and economic recession. The Treasury and the Federal Reserve took actions that saved businesses and jobs and may very well have saved the economy itself from ruin. Still, the public seems ungrateful, expressing anger at these institutions that saved the day. Why?

Americans are angry in part because they sense that the government was as much a cause of the crisis as its cure. They realize that more must be done to address a threat that remains increasingly a part of our economy: financial institutions that are “too big to fail.”

Last summer, Congress passed a law to reform our financial system. It offers the promise that in the future there will be no taxpayer-financed bailouts of investors or creditors. However, after this round of bailouts, the five largest financial institutions are 20 percent larger than they were before the crisis. They control $8.6 trillion in financial assets — the equivalent of nearly 60 percent of gross domestic product. Like it or not, these firms remain too big to fail.

How is it possible that post-crisis legislation leaves large financial institutions still in control of our country’s economic destiny? One answer is that they have even greater political influence than they had before the crisis. During the past decade, the four largest financial firms spent tens of millions of dollars on lobbying. A member of Congress from the Midwest confirmed for me that any candidate who runs for national office must go to New York City, home of the big banks, to raise money.

The solution, of course, is for Congress to break up the “too big to fail” banks, something that still seems quite unlikely even after the events of the last few years and the changing political climate in Washington. Unfortunately, it will probably take another crisis even worse than the last one for real reform to come.

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Europe’s Troubling Economic Numbers

The graphics department at the Wall Street Journal has really outdone themselves in producing the image shown below as part of the lead story in today’s paper on the worsening sovereign debt crisis in Europe. Anyone wanting to better understand the economic data behind the financial distress is advised to “click to enlarge”.

Click to enlarge

Unlike some other attempts at a summary graphic like this, all the scales are the same, so you can just scan the dots and see how bad the situation is in, say, Greece as compared to, say, Germany, all of which goes a long way in explaining why the euro has been dropping like a rock. The bond yield color coding is just an added bonus. Well done!

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Nigel Farage – Video Superstar

Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party and a member of the European Parliament, has become quite the video  sensation recently, a couple dozen new clips being added in just the last 24 hours according to this search on YouTube.

Of course, what makes Nigel quite popular these days is his condemnation of what a lot of Europeans see as “throwing good money after bad” in an attempt to rescue Greece and Ireland with bailouts of Portugal, Spain, and maybe France and Italy to come.

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