REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Meredith Whitney on the Housing Double-Dip

Skip to about the four-minute mark to hear Meredith Whitney talk about the next leg down for home prices as a result of the foreclosure pipeline emptying into the market.


It should come as no surprise that Whitney thinks banks are not prepared for home prices to go lower and that, after the Federal Reserve’s scheduled exit from the mortgage backed securities market in just two weeks, there will be a “material” correction there.

There’s more in this CNBC story including something about disappointment awaiting those who think we’re returning to the old normal – the new normal is apparently not so good.







The Country’s Credit Card Statement

This funny little item was spotted over at Jesse Felder’s blog the other day, apparently originating at Cracked.com, a site that will be bookmarked for future reference in no small part due to the fact that there is a grossly overweight albino monkey of some sort gracing the main page at the moment.
IMAGE As for the graphic above, like much of the humor over the last year or two, it would be a lot funnier if it weren’t so close to the truth.

Michael Lewis was on 60 Minutes talking about the financial market meltdown and his new book that hits bookstores today – The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine.


Favorite comment: “Wall Street is able to delude itself because it gets paid to delude itself … If you pay someone not to see the truth, they will not see the truth.”

On AIG and Goldman Sachs: “They insured tens of billions of dollars of subprime mortgage loans without even knowing they were doing it. Goldman Sachs persuaded them to insure these piles of loans without them ever investigating what was in the pile. So, there’s an additional level of incompetence here – they didn’t even know the mistake that they were making.”

And a closing thought from Steve Kroft: “Lewis believes the financial industry is living in a world so disconnected from American life that it can’t be sustained. He thinks it may take a while, but he believes that Wall Street as we know it has done itself in.”

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ECONned

A new book by Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism has just hit bookstores – ECONned: How Unenlightened Self Interest Undermined Democracy and Corrupted Capitalism. It follows in a long line of post-crisis books and, so far, the reviews look pretty good. There’s also this slick video that may help boost sales a little.


Interestingly, the only negative review at Amazon complains about there being too many conspiracy theories – what’s wrong with conspiracy theories anyway?

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Shadow Housing Inventory Still Looming

Renae Merle at the Washington Post throws cold water on the idea that the “nascent” economic recovery (is anyone still calling it that?) will continue much longer in this story about a subject that seems to slip further and further from the top of everyone’s list of concerns – the growing backlog of foreclosures or soon-to-be foreclosures.

The housing market is facing swelling ranks of homeowners who are seriously delinquent but have yet to lose their homes, and this is threatening a new wave of foreclosures that could hit just as the real estate market has begun to stabilize.

About 5 million to 7 million properties are potentially eligible for foreclosure but have not yet been repossessed and put up for sale. Some economists project it could take nearly three years before all these homes have been put on the market and purchased by new owners. And the number of pending foreclosures could grow much bigger over the coming year as more distressed borrowers become delinquent and then, if they can’t obtain mortgage relief, wade through the foreclosure process, which often takes more than a year to complete.

As these foreclosed properties add to the supply of homes for sale, they could undercut housing prices, which have increased modestly through December, according to the most recent figures in the S&P/Case-Shiller home prices index. That rise partly reflected a slowdown in the flow of foreclosed homes onto the market.

As someone who is planning to buy a house later this year, the idea of stretching out this entire process for years is appalling – not only for how it affects our buying plans, but because it virtually assures a lost decade ahead for the U.S. economy.

(more…)

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Reforming the Financial Reform Process

Maybe before elected officials actually try to undertake reform of financial markets they should have a look at their own process for instituting reform and make a few changes there because, at this point, they seem to have more problems than Wall Street.

In the latest development in the ongoing saga of how to prevent the events of 2008 from happening once again, Bloomberg reports that talks have broken down between Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd (D-CN) and Bob Corker (R-TN) with Dodd now planning to go forward with his own bill.

Corker agreed to work with Dodd after talks broke down in February between Dodd and Senator Richard Shelby, the top Republican on the committee, over consumer protection issues. The bill is aimed at strengthening Wall Street rules to prevent a future financial crisis and a repeat of taxpayer bailouts of firms like American International Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc.

Dodd will release a “substitute” of legislative language he offered in November, which called for creating a stand-alone Consumer Financial Protection Agency and a national bank regulator in the merger of four agencies.

The new Dodd bill will include some elements negotiated with Corker. For example, it won’t propose the stand-alone agency, which Corker opposed, and will probably put the consumer unit in the Federal Reserve with an independent budget, a director appointed by the president and some enforcement powers, according to a person with direct knowledge of the plan.

The last paragraph notes that, tomorrow, the Federal Reserve’s Consumer Advisory Council is expected to announce their opposition to leaving the consumer protection function within the central bank where it has been for many years (with little protection provided).

So, the Fed does not want to be the fox that watches the hen house?

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