REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Tim Geithner on Meet the Press

I fell asleep before they got to the panel featuring none other than former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan (so I’ll have that to look forward to later today), but, in watching the segment with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner on Meet the Press, it struck me that he often times sounds like a 16-year old girl – so fast that you can barely understand what he’s saying.

Maybe it’s just me – that the words can’t be processed fast enough because of older ears and an aging brain – but, there is something disconcerting when the number one guy at the Treasury Department talks like this about the $14 trillion debt.

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U.S. Top Tax Rates Over Time

Here’s another fantastic graphic at Visualizing Economics, this one on the top marginal tax rates in the U.S. over the last century, coming to you in advance of tax day that, this year, falls on Monday, April 18th rather than Friday, April 15th due to a little known Washington D.C. holiday called Emancipation Day that celebrates the freeing of slaves in the area.

Click for a Ginormous (and readable) Image

Now here’s something I didn’t know about how the tax code used to work:

In the 1930s, there were more than 50 [brackets]. The Wealth Tax Act of 1935, applied the top rate to income over $5 million and had only a single taxpayer: John D. Rockefeller, Jr.

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Fleeting Confidence for the Party in Power

In addition to the remarkable similarity in the multi-year trend in confidence on the economy for President George W. Bush and President Barack Obama – they both start out well above two-thirds and then quickly tumble from there – the other interesting takeaway from the latest Gallup poll is this similar survey for Congress.

While controlling Congress for most of the last decade, confidence in the Democratic leadership on the economy moved steadily lower to what is probably a multi-decade low this year, whereas, confidence in the Republican leadership bottomed three years ago and is now higher than the party in power. Since the housing boom went bust, Americans favoring the economic stewardship of the Democrats was a constant, but, now they trail the Republicans, likely more evidence that governing is hard.

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On Raising the Debt Ceiling

There was a rather remarkable poll discussed on the political shows last night on how Americans feel about raising the debt ceiling and, while this is likely another one of those “Yes, I’m in favor of cutting the budget deficit, but not if it affects me” sort of responses that is further clouded by the added mystery and complexity of what not raising the debt ceiling would do to the global financial system, the results were nonetheless intriguing.

In an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, when initially asked about the U.S. adding to its debt after the limit is reached, only 16 percent favored doing so while 46 percent said it should not be raised. The other 38 percent said they didn’t know enough about it to offer a yes or no answer.

But, when additional information was provided, the responses changed dramatically.

When told that failing to raise the debt ceiling would cause the government to default on its debt, as might be expected, the number saying the ceiling should be raised increased from 16 percent to 32 percent. The surprising part came when respondents saying the debt ceiling should not be raised jumped from 46 percent to 62 percent.

It would seem that Americans view the nation’s finances much as they do their own and that the government should tighten its belt sooner rather than later just like them – if that means short-term pain for long-term gain, then, so be it.

Moreover, the whole idea of “defaulting on your debt” doesn’t have the same stigma since millions of homeowners started doing it after the housing boom went bust, so, maybe they figure it’s not such a big deal.

It’s hard to disagree with either of these views, however, I’d be curious to know what the response would have been if they were told that not raising the debt ceiling would result in a financial market crash like 2008. Would they then stick to that view?

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Gazintas and Gazoutas

This daily chart at the Economist provides a good summary of what goes into and what is coming out of the $1.2 trillion European bailout fund, freshly updated to include another €80 billion($115 billion) in the latter category to bail out Portugal.

The financial media is now littered with stories about how Spain is not like Portugal or Ireland or Greece and that they shouldn’t require financial assistance. You can’t help but recall how, after Greece was bailed out, they said Ireland and Portugal should be OK and then, after Ireland was rescued, they said that Portugal and Spain were OK.

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The Future Course of Federal Spending

Not having looked closely at either of the proposed budgets for the decade ahead, no keen insights will be offered as to the merits of either President Obama’s plan or the one offered yesterday by Rep. Paul Ryan, but, as shown below from this story over at the Cato@Liberty blog, either way, we’re looking at government spending of $5 or $6 trillion before long.

[Note: There's also this neat interactive graphic at the Washington Post.]

I’m not sure if it says more about the U.S. dollar or about U.S. government spending, but it wasn’t that long ago when federal spending in the $2.5 trillion range was being decried as reckless and irresponsible, setting the nation on a course certain to end in disaster.

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