Servicing the National Debt

Here’s a pretty stunning chart about the looming difficulty in servicing the national debt from this Washington Post story about the Obama Administration’s proposed budget.

And just think of what fun will be had if interest rates rise sharply in the years ahead, rather than the relatively modest expected increases where the yield on the ten-year note reaches about 5 percent in a few years and ends the decade at 5.3 percent.

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What’s Going On in Wisconsin?

Some government workers in Wisconsin are taking their cues from the Middle East in protesting proposed budget cuts and a new bill that would scale back collective bargaining power as new Republican Governor Scott Walker says he’s just trying to get his job done.

Lots of details can be found at Time Magazine and the New York Times where, in both cases, they see this as something fundamentally different than state budget troubles to date.

In a report at the AFL-CIO website, up to 30,000 protesters were said to be at the state capitol yesterday and today with the festivities expected to continue tomorrow. You guessed it, a Facebook page Protect Wisconsin Families has been set up to spread the word. If they were more honest, they would call it Protect Wisconsin Government Worker Families.

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Rand Paul on the “Mind Boggling” Budget

Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) talks to Gwen Ifill at PBS NewsHour on the budget proposed yesterday by the Obama Administration and admits to being more than a little bothered by the idea that the nation’s debt will soon equal its GDP.

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There’s more video with Paul over at the PBS website. The number that struck me in reading about the White House plan is that it would take the national debt to over $25 trillion by 2020, a couple of nice round numbers if ever there were any.

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On Servicing the National Debt

Here’s a fun little graphic from a report at CNN/Money on the possible costs to service the national debt in the not-too-distant future, that is, when interest rates are closer to historical norms, inflation in the U.S. rises to more natural levels, and the rest of the world has had more time to reflect on our borrow-and-spend ways.

The scariest part of this, as noted in the story, is that the un-smiley face on the left is the optimistic scenario as presented by the Congressional Budget Office recently – debt service of more than ten times the current level. This is akin to looking back to the early-80s when the national debt was rising through the $1 trillion level towards $2 trillion, when, to most people, the idea of $14 trillion in outstanding debt would have seemed incomprehensible.

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Whatever Gets You Through the Day…

When documenting the early-21st century decline of the American Empire, future historians are surely going to have a good time poking fun at the conventional wisdom at the time that a pure-fiat money system was sustainable and the increasingly tortured rationale provided to justify that belief, in the process, perhaps recalling the words of Michael Gold in the Big Chill who famously said, “I don’t know anyone who could get through the day without two or three juicy rationalizations. They’re more important than sex.”

Said tortured rationale these days seems to revolve around the idea that debt, deficits, money printing, and all sorts of other activity that is either ill-advised or illegal for American citizens is just fine for the U.S. government, that is, so long as the consumer price index stays low. In this interview at The Gold Report, Marshall Auerback explains:

As far as government deficits go, what we argue is that there are no financial constraints—there is a real resource constraint. In other words, inflation is the ultimate constraint. We shouldn’t be constructing fiscal policy with some sort of vague, undefined notion that it’s fiscally sustainable. Nor should we define “fiscal sustainability” via some arbitrary number as Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart have done in their recent book, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, wherein they say if a debt-to-GDP ratio gets above 90%, then bad things start to happen.

Under the type of regime we have in Canada or the U.S., there is no inherent reason why any level of government spending should be fiscally unsustainable over a longer period.

It’s counterintuitive to the extent that we normally compare government spending to household spending. People say we can’t spend beyond our means, and that way of thinking fits into people’s own intuitive experience. But you and I are not the same as a government. A government is a monopoly. It’s controlling the currency. If you and I had printing presses in our basements and we were able to print $20,000 whenever we needed, we wouldn’t be debt constrained in the same way that private businesses or individuals are today. Clearly, a government is in a unique position because it’s the only entity that issues currency and, in effect, creates new net financial assets. The household analogy breaks down because we fail to distinguish between users and issuers of currency.

I’ll never come around to this way of thinking, the most important reason being that I understand how fatally flawed the U.S. consumer price index is in this context, namely, that it has been artificially low for two decades or more as a result of cheap imported goods and other factors that make it a particularly dangerous basket to put all your eggs in.

Does Anything Ever Change in California?

Yesterday, on the same day that California Governor Jerry Brown reinstated the “fiscal emergency” for the Golden State amid a $25+ billion budget gap, the University of California announced some $4 million in bonuses and pay increases, the details of which are provided in this report at the San Francisco Chronicle.

Finances are so dire at the University of California that it might have to turn away qualified students, but UC has still found a way to reward hundreds of employees with more than $4 million in incentive pay and raises.

At the regents meeting Thursday in San Diego, UC officials reported giving rewards of $150 to $41,205 to nearly 1,500 UCSF employees who met performance targets, raising the pay of some campus executives to above market rate, and providing 10 percent raises of about $20,000 a year to three executives at their Oakland headquarters.

The executives, who have various financial responsibilities for the UC system, will earn between $216,370 and $247,500 in base pay.

“Whether there is a budget crisis or not, the university still has to be able to pay competitive salaries and incentives consistent with industry standards,” said Steve Montiel, a spokesman for the university. “The university has no problem paying incentives to be competitive.”

While the $4 million is just a drop in the bucket, especially when compared to the $1 billion budget gap that the UC system is facing for the year ahead, it certainly sends the wrong message about public sector employees in the state.

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