Well, That Was Interesting

The next day or so should be fairly exciting for financial markets as developments in the on-again, off-again rescue of the European public debt market reach some sort of a climax. Like most other assets, gold has become quite volatile as of late, surging by almost $20 an ounce earlier today and then diving about $25 an ounce in short order after the European Central Bank announced another interest rate cut.

The gold price is rebounding a bit now and commodity prices are mostly positive, but equity markets appear headed lower as U.S. markets prepare to open. A seat belt and a bottle of Maalox might not be a bad idea for the next 30 hours or so.

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The Standard & Poor’s Cattle Prod

Standard and Poor’s has again injected themselves into the middle of the debate about European sovereign debt (and, after two years, the inability of policymakers to do anything about it) by putting 15 eurozone nations on “credit watch negative”. Here’s the latest from Reuters from a gentlemen with a somewhat comforting accent from north of Brussels.

I can’t tell if that’s an Irish accent or one of those Scottish accents that is easily understood. When visiting Scotland a few years ago, we found that, in some areas, the accents are completely incomprehensible to us ‘Mericans. You can pick out a word here and there and try to figure out the rest based on context, but, you have to be able to do that a much faster rate than I was capable of doing. My guess is that he’s Scottish. Anyone?

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One Last Supercommittee Cartoon

I suppose that, someday, we’ll all look back at the recent failed effort of the deficit reduction “supercommittee” in Congress and realize that it marked a seminal moment in the history of U.S. debt. Of course, it won’t be nearly as funny then as it is now.

From the Michael Ramirez archive at Town Hall.

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Europe’s “Pigheaded Brinksmanship”

This week’s edition of The Economist is chock full of stories about the euro zone’s current sovereign debt troubles and their flagging currency, the cover story asking the same question that is no doubt on the minds of many bond traders these days.

Past financial crises show that this downward spiral can be arrested only by bold policies to regain market confidence. But Europe’s policymakers seem unable or unwilling to be bold enough. The much-ballyhooed leveraging of the euro-zone rescue fund agreed on in October is going nowhere. Euro-zone leaders have become adept at talking up grand long-term plans to safeguard their currency—more intrusive fiscal supervision, new treaties to advance political integration. But they offer almost no ideas for containing today’s conflagration.

Germany’s cautious chancellor, Angela Merkel, can be ruthlessly efficient in politics: witness the way she helped to pull the rug from under Silvio Berlusconi. A credit crunch is harder to manipulate. Along with leaders of other creditor countries, she refuses to acknowledge the extent of the markets’ panic (see article). The European Central Bank (ECB) rejects the idea of acting as a lender of last resort to embattled, but solvent, governments. The fear of creating moral hazard, under which the offer of help eases the pressure on debtor countries to embrace reform, is seemingly enough to stop all rescue plans in their tracks. Yet that only reinforces investors’ nervousness about all euro-zone bonds, even Germany’s, and makes an eventual collapse of the currency more likely.

This cannot go on for much longer. Without a dramatic change of heart by the ECB and by European leaders, the single currency could break up within weeks.

There’s also this story that, just in case you didn’t get the message from above, reiterates the point that “the risk that the currency disintegrates within weeks is alarmingly high”.

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The Cost of a Payroll Tax Increase

Now that the budget deficit supercommittee has punted on reducing the rate at which the nation accumulates debt, attention turns to two pressing issues that could have a big impact on economic growth here in the U.S. beginning in less than 40 days – the expiration of the payroll tax cut and extended unemployment benefits. In this story at the New Jersey Star Ledger, the impact of the former is detailed.

Letting the Social Security stimulus expire now would result in a tax increase equal to 2 percent of payroll on most people. Check the accompanying chart from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities to see the impact on different workers. A typical truck driver would lose nearly $800 for example, while a plumber would lose $1,000.

Because people would have less to spend, the economy would grow more slowly. Goldman Sachs estimates it would shave two-thirds of a percentage point off the GDP.

Once everyone gets back from their Thanksgiving break, look for the debate to heat up again, though, a repeat of last December’s stunning $860 billion stimulus/tax cut deal doesn’t seem likely this year due to political considerations on both sides.

Another Bad Day in Europe

It’s been quite some time since I’ve heard a good, thick Italian accent like the one by Reuters analyst Vincenzo Albano in the video below and, I don’t know about you, but, to me, it kind of makes the situation sound even worse than it really is, if that’s possible.

Borrowing costs are spiraling out of of control again and, after a German bond auction disaster and what increasingly looks like a French credit downgrade, things may finally be coming to a head for the European sovereign debt crisis that recently entered its third year.

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