It’s hard not to think that, with the failure of deficit reduction supercommittee to come up with any deal of any kind over the last few months, elected officials in Washington have set themselves up for an even bigger failure over the next year.
While they may take comfort in the idea that they’ve hardened their positions on spending and taxes in advances of the elections a year from now, they’ve overlooked the possibility that this may be a very different nation next November with the electorate perhaps, finally, ready to “throw all the bums out”.
If you thought that the supercommittee had intractable problems, look what lies dead ahead:
- The Social Security 2 percent payroll tax cut expires in January 2012
- Extended unemployment benefits expire on in January 2012
- Alternative Minimum Tax on the middle class goes up in January 2012
- Medicare reimbursements to physicians go down in January 2012
Getting Congress and the White House to agree on extending any of these provisions will not only be quite a challenge, but it will affect the overall budget picture and the looming 2013 sequestered cuts. But, letting all of these measures expire will cause the U.S. economy to take a big hit, as much as one full percentage point of GDP growth or more.
And as the 2012 elections heats up, the nation will be dealing with two looming crises:
- The $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts in January 2013
- The expiration of the Bush-era tax cuts in January 2013
I think it’s safe to say that, as far as partisan wrangling and the potential for this to create more financial market calamity, “you ain’t seen nuthin’ yet”.
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