Obama, Hu, and Wikileaks

According to this report in McClatchy, U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao may want to quickly look past the generally positive recent public statements about each other and add “Leaked Cable” to their agenda so that they can talk about this:

Hu’s glossy view on the eve of his state visit to Washington this week is a very different take from the unvarnished one offered in a secret January 2010 memo to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton from Jon M. Huntsman, the U.S. ambassador to China. The memo was one of hundreds of classified documents released late last year by the website WikiLeaks.

“Strong Chinese economic and export growth coupled with an artificially undervalued RMB (currency) will further heighten focus on our huge trade deficit with China. Widespread perceptions that China’s industrial policies are rolling back market access add to the overall sense that China plays unfairly in the global marketplace,” Huntsman noted in the confidential memo. “Other emerging issues, like Google’s problems (censorship and ad hoc bans) and new rules on indigenous innovation, create a drumbeat of bad news stories for firms seeking to do business in China.”

This could make things a bit awkward for Hu and Obama, especially if they start talking about the “big sticks” that Huntsman recommends being employed to bring the Chinese around to the American way of thinking.

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Mr. Hu Goes to Washington

Chinese President Hu Jintao will hop on a plane tomorrow and arrive in Washington on Wednesday to talk to U.S. President Barack Obama about a number of issues, most of which will, in some way or another, be related to the value of the yuan.

After making a barrage of announcements in recent weeks about further liberalizing trading in the Chinese currency, small steps on the road to it becoming freely convertible sometime this decade (maybe), the tightly controlled yuan reached a new all-time high against the dollar last week as it often does prior to Chinese officials meeting with important heads of state who, almost unanimously, think the currency is undervalued.

So, given all this recent good will, it comes as something of a surprise that the media-shy Hu would take this opportunity to respond to questions posed by U.S. newspapers in which he characterized  the current dollar-based global monetary system as  a sort of relic of a bygone era. Well, those werent’ his exact words… Here’s the relevant Q&A s it appeared($) in the Wall Street Journal today and this related WSJ story is worth a look as well.

4. What do you think will be the U.S. dollar’s future role in the world? How do you see the issue of making the RMB an international currency? Some think that RMB appreciation may curb China’s inflation, what’s your view on that?

A: The current international currency system is the product of the past. As a major reserve currency, the U.S. dollar is used in considerable amount of global trade in commodities as well as in most of the investment and financial transactions. The monetary policy of the United States has a major impact on global liquidity and capital flows and therefore, the liquidity of the U.S. dollar should be kept at a reasonable and stable level.

(more…)

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An Empty Shopping Mall in China

This video has been popping up all over the place, Paul Allen of Bloomberg reporting from the empty New South China Mall in Dongguan, China, another sign of overbuilding in the Middle Kingdom that some, like short seller Jim Chanos, think will end badly.

From Bloomberg:

Allen tours the South China Mall, originally conceived as the world’s largest mall, and finds retail space that has been largely vacant since 2005. Here is Allen’s key highlight from the report, courtesy of Bloomberg Television: Allen reports, “The reality at South China Mall is somewhat different: shuttered shops, unfinished, never occupied by a single tenant. The few retailers that are here have favorable leases, but little profit.” Allen also states that despite obvious problems, the mall’s owners plan to expand to more than one million square meters of retail and residential space will be available.

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China FOREX Reserves Reach $2.85 Trillion

Jake over at EconomPicData charts the rise of China’s foreign exchange reserves after it was announced yesterday that the total had reached a new all-time high of $2.85 trillion at the end of 2010, begging the question of whether you can ever get too much of a good thing.

Not uncoincidentally, Chinese President Hu will visit U.S. President Obama next week and there’s a pretty good chance the subject will come up. You can almost picture the two sitting across from each other with Obama saying in his folksy way, “You know, your foreign reserves are getting pretty high. I mean, three trillion dollars is a lot of money…”

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The Economist’s Top 20 Charts for 2010

This item at The Economist has links to their top 20 charts for the year that officially concludes in about 17 hours. Below is the one that, in my estimation, is the most important.

It should be an interesting year ahead for China as their efforts to slow inflating asset bubbles will be measured against the potential damage that could be done if they go too far. This Bloomberg report detailing diplomatic cables between the U.S. and China released by Wikileaks shows the Chinese government is well aware of exactly what’s going on.

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The Future of Global Auto Sales

Among the many other important developments in the global economy in recent years, China passed the U.S. as the world’s leading buyer of automobiles, the graphic below from this item at The Economist projecting that trend into the future.

It’s not clear what, if any, impact will be felt at car showrooms in China in the months ahead as the central bank raises interest rates further in 2011 following their Christmas Day surprise rate hike that is dominating the financial news this morning.

Perhaps more important than monetary policy next year will be efforts to limit traffic congestion in major cities. This report at MarketWatch details recently announced plans to limit the number of auto sales by restricting the issuance of license plates using a lottery system. It’s shaping up to be an interesting year ahead in the Middle Kingdom.

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