REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Global GDP Through the Millennia

The Economist had this fascinating chart up the other day detailing the history of global economic output as compiled by the late Angus Maddison whose calculation methods (in case you were wondering) may have died with him. Contrary to what most people might believe, robust economic activity hasn’t always been a European affair (see the Dark Ages).

Note that the stacked 100 percent chart format with a portion of it missing is somewhat misleading because, looking at it quickly, you might think that output 2,000 years ago was, somehow, comparable to what we see today after properly adjusting for one factor or another. Surely it is not. In fact, you’d probably find that up until the West began to dominate in the 19th century, there wasn’t a whole lot of GDP anywhere in the world.

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The China Property Bubble

If you’ve not already seen the study by Yongheng Deng, Joseph Gyourko, and Jing Wuu that appeared at voxeu the other day and you still think there’s not a problem with real estate prices in China, you might want to go read that paper. The one chart that stood out for me is below along with a conclusion that should strike fear into any recent buyer.

To provide some insight into just how risky prices and price-to-rent ratios are at these levels, we calculated what would happen if people began to expect that their homes would grow in value by only 4% per year. For Beijing, prices would fall by over 40%, absent offsetting rent increases or other countervailing factors.

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China and their Energy Consumption

China was quick to dispute findings by the IEA (International Energy Agency) that concluded they have surpassed the United States and are now the world’s biggest consumer of energy.

Most people probably look at the 9 million bpd (barrels per day) of oil consumed in China versus the 19 million bpd day in the U.S. and stop there. Apparently, they’re much closer to the U.S. when coal, nuclear energy, natural gas, and other energy sources are included.

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Waking Up, Smelling the Coffee in China

The folks in the nation’s capital will likely shrug off reports that some in China think they should hold more gold and less U.S. debt as easily as they’ll shrug off stories about how different the view of the world is inside Washington D.C. and outside it.

China should cut U.S. Treasury holdings: economist

Yu Yongding, a former academic adviser to the central bank and now a professor with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said Beijing should invest in assets denominated in other currencies as well as other financial instruments and real goods.

“Although assets in other currencies and forms are not an ideal replacement for U.S. Treasury bonds, diversification should be a basic principle,” Yu wrote in the China Securities Journal.

“When demand for U.S. Treasury securities is strong, it’s a rare opportunity for us to gradually pull back. That way, it will not have a big impact on prices and China will not suffer too much,” he said.

Zhang Monan, a researcher with the State Information Center, a think tank under the powerful National Development and Reform Commission, told the paper that China should invest more of its $2.5 trillion of foreign exchange reserves, the world’s largest stockpile, in hard assets such as gold.

What at they waiting for?

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As Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s, and Fitch go about their business of assessing the credit risk of corporations, financial instruments, and sovereign nations around the world after having done such a fine job leading up to the global crisis a few years ago, another ratings agency is making headlines today – China’s Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. – and they have a slightly different view of things as detailed in this report in the Telegraph.

Chinese rating agency strips Western nations of AAA status

China’s leading credit rating agency has stripped America, Britain, Germany and France of their AAA ratings, accusing Anglo-Saxon competitors of ideological bias in favour of the West.

Dagong Global Credit Rating Co used its first foray into sovereign debt to paint a revolutionary picture of creditworthiness around the world, giving much greater weight to “wealth creating capacity” and foreign reserves than Fitch, Standard & Poor’s, or Moody’s.

The US falls to AA, while Britain and France slither down to AA-. Belgium, Spain, Italy are ranked at A- along with Malaysia.

Meanwhile, China rises to AA+ with Germany, the Netherlands and Canada, reflecting its €2.4 trillion (£2 trillion) reserves and a blistering growth rate of 8pc to 10pc a year.

Other losers were Japan and South Korea, while top AAA ratings were given to Australia, New Zealand, Norway, Denmark, Luxembourg, Switzerland, and Singapore.

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The euphoria that followed word from China over the weekend that they will allow the yuan to appreciate – a move that was no doubt timed to focus attention on the euro and take the heat off of their currency issues at the upcoming G-20 meeting – sure has faded fast.

From the Scott Stantis archive at the Chicago Tribune.

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