Surge in Consumer Confidence Stalls

Following word that home prices continued to fall last fall as noted here earlier today, news comes from the Conference Board that consumer confidence declined for the first time in three months, down from an upwardly revised 64.8 in December to 61.1 in January.

Importantly, this is the first major gauge of the mood of the consumer to reverse course in recent months as, apparently, those holiday credit card bills have begun to take a toll.

Recall that a surprising surge in credit card usage during the fourth quarter was credited with driving holiday sales higher and, now that those November and December charges are starting to show up in mailboxes in January, the mood is not quite as festive.

Well, gasoline prices starting to rise again doesn’t help either…

The present situation component nearly reversed last month’s gain, falling more than 8 points to 38.4, while the expectations component also declined, from 77.0 in December to 76.2 in January. One-year inflation expectations rose from 5.3 percent to 5.5 percent, in stark contrast to Fed Chief Ben Bernanke’s claim that inflation is too low.

Tagged with:  






Retail Sales Up 0.1%, Down 0.2% Ex-Autos

The Commerce Department reported(.pdf) that retail sales in the U.S. came in well below expectations last month, rising 0.1 percent in December following an upwardly revised increase of 0.4 percent in November. Excluding automobiles, sales fell 0.2 percent after a gain of 0.3 percent the month prior.

Apparently, American consumers bought nearly all of their iPads, iPhones, and big screen TVs in November as electronics & appliance stores saw sales plunge 3.9 percent in December, the largest decline amongst six of the 13 categories where sales were lower. Gasoline station sales fell 1.6 percent due to a plunging price at the pump and sales at general merchandise stores fell 0.8 percent.

Motor vehicle sales rose 1.7 percent last month and home improvement stores saw a 1.6 percent increase to lead the advancing categories as food and clothing sales both rose 0.7 percent. On a year-over-year basis, overall sales were up 6.5 percent and, for all of 2011, sales rose 7.7 percent, both fairly impressive increases given the slow economic recovery.

Tagged with:  

Americans Gorge on Credit Card Offers

It would appear that the Federal Reserve’s guarantee of freakishly low interest rates until at least 2013 (soon to be extended into 2014 or beyond) and the resulting push by credit card companies to clog mail boxes with all sorts or tempting offers had the desired effect on Americans as they racked up new credit card debt in November at a rate not seen since before the wheels fell of the global financial system back in early-2008.

The data for December might be even more impressive since, what U.S. citizen in their right mind wouldn’t borrow a thousand dollars or two to get that big flat screen TV and new sound system at Christmas time if they could do so without incurring any interest charges and making only minimal payments for the next year or two.

While some say this indicates renewed confidence in the U.S. economy – one where 70 percent of all activity is based on consumer spending -  others think this is akin to a drunk “falling of the wagon” after almost three years of sobriety.

Tagged with:  

Retail Sales Disappoint

The Commerce Department reported(.pdf) that retail sales in the U.S. advanced for the sixth straight month, but the increase was less than expected, sales rising just 0.2 percent in November after a surge of 1.3 percent in September and a gain of 0.6 percent in October.

Excluding autos, sales rose 0.2 percent after a gain of 0.6 percent in October while sales excluding both autos and gasoline rose 0.2 percent in November after a gain of 0.7 percent.

Gasoline station sales dropped 0.1 percent after declining 0.4 percent, but they are still up 12.9 percent from a year ago due to higher prices at the pump, not higher energy demand.

Auto sales rose 0.7 percent after a surge of 1.0 percent the month prior while the biggest monthly increase in November occurred at electronics & appliance stores with a jump of 2.1 percent jump after surging 3.3 percent in October, a testament to America’s love for such products as Apple’s iPad2.

Seven retail categories saw higher sales while six declined, paced by a drop of 1.2 percent at miscellaneous store retailers and a decline of 0.3 percent at home improvement stores.

Tagged with:  

Unusual Developments in Consumer Credit

From this item at Jake’s EconomPicData blog the other day comes the graphic below depicting dramatic changes in consumer credit trends over the years. Racking up revolving credit (e.g., credit cards) is not nearly as popular as it was for decades, what I’ve long called “the real Reagan Revolution” as individuals dramatically increased their use of credit cards to fuel consumption (i.e., buying things you don’t need with money you don’t have).

Taking up the slack for falling credit card balances are higher student loan balances that, already, are further separating the nation into have and have-nots (a.k.a. debt serfs) while making the whole idea of higher education less appealing when this is one the the things the country needs most to remain competitive with emerging economies in Asia.

Tagged with:  

Consumer Confidence Surges

The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence surged from a two-and-a-half year low of 40.9 in October to 56.0 in November, the highest reading since before the debt ceiling debate began over the summer. After six months of declines, the Present Situation Index jumped from 27.1 to 38.3 and the Expectations Index surged from 50.0 to 67.8.

Those saying jobs are “plentiful” increased from 3.6 percent to 5.8 percent while those saying  jobs are “hard to get” fell from 46.9 percent to 42.1 percent.

Income expectations also improved, those saying they anticipate an increase in their wages over the next six months rose from 11.1 percent to 14.9 percent and business conditions are also expected to be better early next year, that view shared by 13.6 percent of respondents versus 10.2 percent last month.

Tagged with:  
Page 1 of 161234510...Last »
© 2010-2011 The Mess That Greenspan Made