REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dipped from 75.3 in February to 74.3 in the first of two readings for March in a sign that rising gas prices may now be having in an impact on the mood of the consumer.

Based in large part on a recently improving labor market, the current conditions component remains firm, up from 83.0 to 84.2, however, the expectations component more than offset that gain, down from 70.3 to 68.0.

Consumer Sentiment

It’s a good think that equity markets don’t have a gas tank to fill every week or they too might think about pulling back but, so far, they show little sign of doing so, though that could soon change given that inflation expectations show signs of stirring to life.

Survey respondents ratcheted up their one-year outlook on consumer prices from an increase of 3.3 percent to 4.0 percent in a delayed reaction to rising pump prices that the Energy Department said gained another 4 cents over the last week, rising to a national average of $3.83 per gallon.

Five-year inflation expectations (the measure watched more closely by Fed economists) rose just one-tenth to 3.0 percent, indicating that, like Fed Chief Ben Bernanke, most Americans see rising gas prices as being temporary, a belief that, unlike Bernanke’s, could prove to be temporary itself.

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Rising Prices, Weather Drive Retail Sales

The Commerce Department reported(.pdf) that big increases in gasoline station sales and automobile sales drove overall retail sales in the U.S. higher by 1.1 percent in February following an upwardly revised gain of 0.6 percent in January.

Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales rose 0.9 percent last month and, excluding both autos and gasoline, sales rose just 0.6 percent.

Surging pump prices more than offset falling demand as gasoline station sales jumped 3.3 percent in February after an increase of 1.9 percent the month prior. Motor vehicle sales rose 1.6 percent last month following a decline of 1.6 percent in January.

February Retail Sales

Clothing sales rose 1.8 percent, however, here too, rising prices played a significant role in the sales gains as the Labor Department recently reported that, over the last three months, the cost of apparel has been rising at an annual rate of more than 5 percent.

An unusually warm and dry winter has also spurred many purchases at home improvement stores, as sale there rose 1.4 percent for the second month in a row. Recall that the retail sales figures are adjusted for seasonal variations and holidays, but not rising prices, all of which makes the February surge less than what it appears.

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Unsustainable Consumption

Every time I read a story like this one today in which “leading economists” talk about the importance of the American consumer in powering economic growth or when talking heads on TV casually note that consumption accounts for 70 percent of all economic activity here in the U.S., I think back to this data series:

I don’t know what would make anyone think that the 70 percent figure is anything but worrisome, especially with government spending accounting for another 20 percent or more. That leaves the combination of domestic investment and net exports contributing less than 10 percent (net exports being negative for quite some time), yet, economists and news anchors repeat this “consumers account for 70 percent of the economy” over and over as if it were some kind of economic law which it is certainly not.

Future historians will no doubt look back someday while scratching their heads and say, “I don’t know why on earth they would have thought that was sustainable”.

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This Bloomberg report on the impact lower bonuses are having on Wall Street’s finest serves as another reminder that, like elected officials in Washington, Americans throughout much of the rest of the country have more of a spending problem than a revenue problem.

Andrew Schiff, brother of  doomsayer Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital, laments the high cost of private school tuition, living in New York City, and four month long summer vacations in Connecticut that have become difficult to bear on his $350,000 income.

While Andrew won’t get much sympathy from the rest of the country that struggles to make ends meet on a 10th of that income or less – and that is, perhaps, the more important story here – it does illustrate the point that, at just about every income level, many Americans are doomed to financial failure simply because they spend too much money.

I’ll never forget Lakers owner Jerry Buss who, back in the 1980s, famously said that all you have to do to become wealthy is to spend less than you make and to keep doing this over many, many years.

It’s a simple formula, actually.

Yet, in a society where image seems to be everything and buying things you don’t need with money you don’t have is a way of life, that simple wisdom seems about as relevant today as the idea of paying off your mortgage.

I find it hard to conjure up much sympathy for people like Schiff and the primary reason why is that, for decades, I’ve approached personal finances in a completely different way, one like Jerry Buss recommended and which may someday soon come back in style.

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Can Consumer Confidence Go Any Higher?

The final February data on consumer confidence is now in over at Gallup and they report that, after the American mood darkened slightly a few weeks ago, economic confidence ended with its sixth straight monthly gain as depicted below.

What’s interesting about the graphic (as well as with other similar surveys) is that we’ve been here before but have never been able to move higher.

In a separate, less frequently conducted survey at Gallup, the percentage of Americans who think the U.S. economy is growing has reached a new recovery high at 40 percent. While this is good news, it’s worth pointing out that some 46 percent of those polled say the economy is still either in recession or depression.

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Is that It for Consumer Confidence?

Along with the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, Gallup’s latest survey of economic confidence has recently reached a peak as depicted below, one that is not likely to be reached again as long as gasoline prices continue to rise.

Like the other surveys, recent readings for the Gallup poll are more often associated with recessions than recoveries. We’ll probably find out this spring whether Americans’ dour mood has been justified or if the economic recovery really is as good as it looks.

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