Consumer Confidence Surges

The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence surged from a two-and-a-half year low of 40.9 in October to 56.0 in November, the highest reading since before the debt ceiling debate began over the summer. After six months of declines, the Present Situation Index jumped from 27.1 to 38.3 and the Expectations Index surged from 50.0 to 67.8.

Those saying jobs are “plentiful” increased from 3.6 percent to 5.8 percent while those saying  jobs are “hard to get” fell from 46.9 percent to 42.1 percent.

Income expectations also improved, those saying they anticipate an increase in their wages over the next six months rose from 11.1 percent to 14.9 percent and business conditions are also expected to be better early next year, that view shared by 13.6 percent of respondents versus 10.2 percent last month.

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It’s Black Friday

Is there anything as uniquely American as Black Friday? Probably not.

Shoppers are apparently too busy shopping at the moment to post pictures and videos to the internet, so, here’s a popular Black Friday video compilation from a year ago.

Last night, a woman at a Los Angeles WalMart reportedly pepper sprayed rivals going for the electronics she had her eyes on and this Washington Post story delves into the question of why we Americans do what we do on the day after Thanksgiving. Here’s reason #1:

1) The crowds make us happy

Ordinarily, shoppers are turned off by crowds. But when crowds create a sense of competition — such as when hundreds of shoppers are rushing to collect marked-down goods — they generate a different feeling entirely. Competition creates what’s called hedonic shopping value, or a sense of enjoyment from the mere process of buying goods.

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It would appear that we’ve entered a holiday holding pattern for consumer sentiment and the stock market, that is, until something really bad happens either in Europe or in the U.S.

The latest take on the mood of the American consumer from Reuters and the University of Michigan shows that attitudes were virtually unchanged, the sentiment index falling from 64.2 in October to 64.1 in November. One-year inflation expectations were steady at 3.2 percent with the five-year inflation outlook rising one-tenth to 2.7 percent.

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Retail Sales Continue to Rise

The Commerce Department reported(.pdf) that U.S. retail sales rose 0.5 percent in October following an increase of 1.1 percent in September, more evidence that, while Americans may take a dim view of their current condition, it hasn’t stopped them from spending.

Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.6 percent last month and gains were broad based as 10 of the 13 major categories saw higher sales. Electronics sales surged 3.7 percent after a jump of 3.5 percent the month prior while sales at home improvement stores rose 1.5 percent and sporting goods sales gained 1.1 percent.

Clothing sales fell 0.7 percent and gasoline station sales dropped 0.4 percent as lower energy prices made their way to end consumers, however, given the recent rebound in oil prices, that trend could quickly reverse.

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Retail Sales Rise 1.1%, Up 0.6% Ex-Autos

The Commerce Department reported(.pdf) that retail sale in the U.S. rose 1.1 percent in September following an upwardly revised gain of 0.3 percent in August, a preliminary indication that American consumers have recovered from their summer spending lull. Last month’s increase was paced by sharply higher auto sales and gasoline station sales continued to move steadily higher, but other gains were broad-based.

Auto sales surged 4.0 percent in September, up from a decline of 1.1 percent in August and 8.8 percent higher on a year-over-year basis, while gasoline station sales rose 1.2 percent following a gain of 0.8 percent the month before, now 20.3 percent higher than a year ago.

Elsewhere, clothing store sales rose 1.3 percent and are now 7.6 percent higher than last year at this time, much of the recent sales increase fueled by rising prices rather than higher volume as apparel costs have been rising sharply this year (recall that retail sales are adjusted for seasonal variations, but not for inflation).

Restaurant business increased by 1.2 percent, furniture stores sales rose 1.1 percent, and sales at miscellaneous store retailers rose by 0.9 percent while only three of the 13 categories saw modest declines – sporting goods down 0.3 percent, food & beverages down 0.3 percent, and building material down 0.1 percent.

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The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index plunged from 63.7 in July to 54.9 in the first of two readings for August as the debt ceiling debate, U.S. and European credit concerns, and tumbling stock prices drove the index to its lowest level since 1980.

As shown below, during the worst of the financial crisis in November of 2008, this index fell only as far as 55.3, so, along with renewed volatility on Wall Street, count this as another indication that the months ahead could be perilous.

The expectations component dropped from 56.0 in July to a near-record low of 45.7 in August and the gauge of current economic conditions fell from 75.8 to 69.3. Moderating gasoline prices saw inflation fears easing, the one-year outlook for consumer prices steady at 3.4 percent while five-year inflation was seen at 2.9 percent.

Coming on the heels of this morning’s better than expected report on retail sales last month, you can’t help but wonder if Americans have decided to adopt the attitude of “Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we may die”.

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