It’s All Greek This Week

An agreement on the “voluntary participation of private creditors” (whatever that means) seems to have been the major accomplishment over the weekend by European leaders for the Greek debt crisis as everyone in the U.S. was either playing or watching golf.

It should be another interesting week for the Greek debt crisis, if for no other reason than that the influential German weekly magazine DER SPIEGEL has a funeral arrangement for the euro on its Monday cover – a Greek flag over a casket with a picture of a one euro coin on top and a lead story titled “Sudden and Expected -Obituary for a common currency”.

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Autos Sink Retail Sales in May

The Commerce Department reported(.pdf) that retail sales fell for the first time in 11 months, down 0.2 percent in May after a downwardly revised gain of 0.3 percent in April.

Motor vehicle & parts dealers saw sales declines of 2.9 percent last month, the biggest drop in 15 months, due in part to supply chain shortages resulting from the Japan disaster. But, excluding autos, sales rose just 0.3 percent in May, the smallest gain since last July.

Gasoline sales rose modestly, up 0.3 percent after a surge of 1.4 percent the month before, and big gains were seen at miscellaneous store retailers (up 2.1 percent) and building material stores (up 1.2 percent). Electronics & appliance stores saw the second sharpest decline (down 1.3 percent) followed by furniture and home furnishings (down 0.7 percent).

This report adds to the growing evidence of a sharp slowdown in economic growth recently. Though events in Japan and bad weather in the U.S. have certainly contributed to this development, the big question now is whether these influences will prove to be temporary.

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The bin Laden Bounce Continues

The mood of the American consumer continued to be relatively upbeat in the weeks following the elimination of Osama bin Laden, at least as reported by Reuters and the University of Michigan in the latest consumer sentiment survey where the final May reading came in at 74.3, up from 72.4 at mid-month and 69.8 in April.

Consumer expectations jumped from 61.6 in April to 69.5 in May while the current conditions index fell from 82.5 to 81.9 and, largely due to the sell-off in commodity markets earlier in the month that has led to modestly lower gasoline prices, inflation expectations over the next 12 months dropped from 4.6 percent to 4.1 percent – the first month-to-month decline since last September. The survey’s five-year inflation outlook held steady at 2.9 percent.

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According to the latest consumer confidence survey from Gallup, there has been a very measurable improvement in the collective American mood since Osama bin Laden’s late night sleep was so rudely interrupted by Seal Team 6 earlier in the month.

Unless last week’s decline in gasoline prices continues, odds are that the bounce will be short-lived (accompanied, perhaps, by President Obama’s approval rating, though Republicans’ Medicare plans may forestall that for some time to come).

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[Closing out a short trip through the 2007 archives with an item about mortgage lending seemed like a good idea since, at that time, most homeowners and lenders had come to understand that housing wasn't in a bull market any more but, rather, a bubble, and that prices were undergoing some serious reversals. The bad news was that all the debt stayed in place. This story from April 26th, 2007 details the multi-year rise in home equity loans and withdrawals - "tapping your equity" as they used to fondly say - as Americans began to realize that all the money they'd been spending in recent years wasn't really theirs to spend. Not surprisingly, today, home equity "extraction" (another popular term back then) has come to a virtual standstill, due in no small part to the dramatic decline in home prices leaving homeowners with far less equity to "tap". Two related items can be found here and here.]

ooo

One of the many lingering after-effects of the Greenspan term at the Fed is that a huge amount of home equity had been extracted, but not yet paid back by homeowners who had no plans to sell their home.

If your mortgage is more than a few years old, it no longer makes sense to refinance the extracted equity back into a new first mortgage for three reasons. First, you’d have to start back at month one on the loan amortization schedule; second, you probably won’t get a lower interest rate; and third, you’ll have more loan fees to pay.

Now, many homeowners who plan to stay put for awhile, especially those who have just completed major improvements on their homes, are getting squeezed every month as they service the home equity debt that seemed like found money just a couple years ago.

This was confirmed earlier today when it was learned that Americans are much less willing to take money out of their homes and spend it now that home prices are falling across the country and interest rates show no signs of coming back down.

(more…)

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Jake over at EconomPicData has come up with a rather stunning chart in this item from the other day following the release of the latest personal income/spending data from the Commerce Department. It seems that if you subtract government transfer payments from income, then the savings rate has been negative for quite some time now.

Recall that this follows news last week (as noted here) that government assistance is now at an all-time high and that wages as a share of income are at their lowest level since record keeping began in 1929. Somehow, none of this seems likely to change anytime soon.

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