This item from earlier in the week by Catherine Rampell at the New York Times Economix blog is one of the more important stories that many are likely to ignore over the Easter holiday weekend, particularly White House officials, followers of Paul Krugman, and the man himself who all seem to have convinced themselves that low borrowing rates are a vote of confidence in the spendthrift ways of the U.S. government.

Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner tried to soothe foreign investors who might be concerned about the security of United States debt.

Mr. Geithner offered the following words of comfort: “Look at the price at which we borrow.” In other words, don’t worry, because interest rates are still joyously low.

But run this observation by economic historians, and you will find that it also provides little assurance.

In other research Professor Reinhart has found that interest rates are surprisingly bad at predicting debt crises in the near future. The painful rise in the cost of borrowing that is typical in a sovereign debt crisis often comes on extremely suddenly, Professor Reinhart says. (After all, the assumption that just because things have been trending a certain way for a long while means they will stay that way forever is exactly the kind of logic that led to the housing bubble.)

In other words, there are a lot of things to pay attention to when you are trying to predict whether the United States is likely to default. Unfortunately, despite what you may have read lately and seen in the markets, sovereign credit ratings and current interest rates may not actually lend you that much insight.

In this entry from just a couple of days ago, Krugman continues to mock the “elusive” bond vigilantes wondering why they haven’t shown up yet and, not having been able to locate any reference to the Rampell story above, it would seem that he’ll continue to do so until they finally do arrive, something that happens rather suddenly, apparently.