A plethora of mostly interesting data points about how people all over the world see their national economy can be found in this Pew survey released yesterday.

While emerging market nations are far more optimistic about the future with a stunning 80 percent of Chinese saying that conditions will improve over the next year, we ‘Mericans seem to be sharply divided in how we see things as shown to the right.

It’s no surprise that we lead all advanced economies in optimism since, we are a pretty sanguine bunch for the most part. Only Japan and South Korea come close to the 44 percent of Americans who see a better economy ahead.

But, it is the U.S. pessimists that make us standout as a full one-third of us think things will get worse.

This leaves only 22 percent in the middle, roughly corresponding (and not coincidentally, I’m guessing) to the share of independent voters in the country.

Only Greece has fewer people thinking that things will stay the same and, given their current condition, there probably isn’t much difference between no change and worse, the latter response registering 64 percent.

This chart likely says more about our politics than our economy.

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U.S. Economy Expands at 2.5% Rate in Q1

The Commerce Department reported that, after expanding at an annual rate of 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012,  real gross domestic product in the U.S. increased at a rate of 2.5 percent during the first quarter of 2013.

This is the first of three estimates for the period and the details are not very encouraging. Like most other economic reports over the last month or so, today’s result came in well below the consensus estimate, in this case an expectation of a 3.1 percent growth rate.

GDP

Consumer spending continues to drive the U.S. economy, accounting for 2.24 percentage points of the overall 2.5 percent gain, and household expenditures on such items as housing, utilities, and healthcare dominated this category.

Declining government spending subtracted 0.80 percentage points from growth and net exports subtracted 0.50 percentage points, this combination offset by a positive contribution of 1.56 percentage points from gross private domestic investment, two-thirds of which was accounted for by a surge in inventory rather than actual investment.

Following a dramatic decline in the fourth quarter, nearly all of the government spending cutbacks during the first quarter came from defense in what was the steepest back-to-back drop in military outlays since the 1950s.

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U.S. Manufacturing Expansion Slows

The Institute for Supply Management reported that the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded at its slowest pace in three months as the index of national factory activity fell from 54.2 in February to 51.3 in March and the new orders and production indexes both tumbled.

ISM Manufacturing Index

Employment was about the only bright spot in this report as this index rose from 52.6 to 54.2 (recall that numbers above and below 50 indicate expansion and contraction, respectively). The key new orders index fell from 57.8 in February to 51.4 last month, still indicating a modest expansion, while production dropped from 57.6 to 52.2.

Exports orders jumped from 53.5 to 56.0 and recently lower oil prices likely played a role in the prices paid index dipping from 61.5 to 54.5.

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Two completely unrelated videos (hat tip ES) provided a few chuckles this morning.

First, in a “sign of the times”, a few down-on-their-luck New Yorkers request a little help from the kind people riding the subway. It starts getting real funny at about the 0.45 mark.

Also, for Nascar fans, an unsuspecting car salesman gets the test drive of his life.

Famous last words: “It’s got some power. Get a feel for it…”

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Ohio

We’ll be passing through Ohio in a few days on our way to the East Coast (that is, if Hurricane Sandy doesn’t change those plans) and, while we’ve never spent much time there, it doesn’t take much to come away thinking that the “rust belt” deserves its name.

As shown in the snapshot below from The Economist, in many ways the state is pretty typical of others, but, they’re really falling behind when it comes to income, what is probably the most important under-reported story on the U.S. economy in recent years.

On our last trip eastward, we stayed in Canton, Ohio in order to stop in and see the Pro Football Hall of Fame. While the place is nothing like, say, Gary, Indiana, you can’t help but come away with the impression that time has somehow passed it by.

More than a century ago it was smack in the middle of a U.S. oil boom led by John D. Rockefeller and, then, the surrounding auto industry bolstered people’s fortunes. But, recent decades haven’t been nearly as kind, though fracking offers some hope.

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ISM Manufacturing Index Declines

The Institute for Supply Management reported that the ISM manufacturing index came in well below expectations last month, falling from 54.1 in January to 52.4 in February, as prices paid was one of only a few categories to post an increase.

The important new orders index fell from 57.6 in January to 54.9 last month, still indicating solid growth as readings above and below 50 indicate expansion and contraction, respectively. Production fell from 55.7 to 55.3, employment fell from 54.3 to 53.2, and prices paid rose a full six points, from 55.5 to 61.5.

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