There seems to be a near consensus on the idea that, somehow, the U.S. economy will handle the current “oil shock” better than it handled the one three years ago, an event that preceded the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression by just a few months.

Typical of the commentary in this vein is this New York Times report today:

U.S. Economy Is Better Prepared for Rising Gas Costs

By JAD MOUAWAD and NICK BUNKLEY

The increase in energy prices is beginning to resemble the rise in 2008. But this time, the American economy may be better prepared for higher fuel costs.
…
One big reason is that consumers and businesses have learned lessons from the last oil shock. Many drivers, for example, have given up their gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles. Automakers, which are selling more fuel-efficient cars than five years ago, reported higher sales in February even as gas prices rose.

Industries like airlines and trucking, which are most severely affected by fuel prices, have passed on their higher costs almost immediately instead of waiting for the price increases to hammer profits.

And much of the rest of the United States economy is far less dependent on oil than it used to be. Oil consumption has dropped more than 5 percent since 2005, while natural gas use has risen 10 percent. A glut of domestic natural gas has kept prices low, providing a lift to industries like chemicals and pharmaceuticals and tempering the price of electricity, much of which is generated from natural gas.

I don’t know – does it really make that much of a difference if it costs you $70 to fill your tank versus $100, as is the case for 39-year old fashion designer Tival Williams in Brooklyn? Either way, it’s a big hit to the psyche of the American consumer who still accounts for a freakishly large share of U.S. economic output.

Perhaps more importantly, what you don’t hear much about these days is how commodity traders and speculators of all kinds are gearing up for another liquidity-fueled oil price spike, one that is already underway in other sectors of the natural resource world and where energy has been a clear laggard. Bidding oil prices to new record highs in 2011 – after many other commodities have already seen new all-time highs – may make $147 oil seem cheap, quickly negating any positive effects of reduced domestic oil demand.