Forty years ago today, President Richard M. Nixon “closed the gold window”, forever severing the link between paper money and precious metals, or so they thought at the time.

With the gold price having risen from under $40 an ounce to over $1,800 an ounce during those four decades – an annualized gain of almost 15 percent per year – it increasingly looks as though the days of a pure fiat money system are numbered, a case made by many of the stories below that celebrate mark today’s anniversary.

The Nixon Shock -Bloomberg/BusinessWeek
The Nixon Shock Heard ‘Round the World – WSJ
Nixon’s not-so-happy gold legacy 40 years on – Mineweb
Nixon Showed What Not to Do in an Economic Crisis – Bloomberg
August 15, 1971: President Nixon’s Golden Error – Real Clear Markets
August 15, 1971: A Date Which Has Lived In Infamy – Forbes
We are now paying for abandoning the gold standard – Telegraph
Road to downgrade began 40 years ago – Des Moines Register
Gold Standard or Nixon Standard – Lew Rockwell
Gold-standard debate back, 40 years after Nixon – MarketWatch
Gold Standard: Forty Years Gone — And Good Riddance – WSJ
Nixon’s Colossal Monetary Error: The Verdict 40 Years Later – Forbes
50-Fold Gain for Gold Price 40 Years After Gold Standard Ends – Bullion Vault
Fiat Money: The Root Cause Of Our Financial Disaster – Forbes
Forty Years of Paper Money – WSJ

Along with the Wikipedia entry Nixon Shock, Roger Lowenstein’s treatment atop the list above should be considered required reading. I’m still working my way down through the rest of these items and may have a few thoughts of my own to offer later in the day.

Until then, I wonder what Milton Friedman would think today after the financial market turmoil and the remarkable rise in the gold price during the fourth decade after he thought freely floating fiat currencies would be such a good idea.







Bernanke! Do Something!

It would appear that the magic elixir of a two-year pledge for freakishly low interest rates from the Federal Reserve has an effective life of only about 18 hours since, after yesterday’s remarkable 400+ point move higher for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, that gain has been reversed in trading today, markets effectively telling Ben Bernanke and the rest of the staff at the central bank, “What else you got?”

Recall that, yesterday, the Fed fired off the first of a possible three shots that could be seen prior to what some analysts predict will be another $1 trillion or so in outright money printing to buy government debt or some other asset that, if all goes well, would goose the markets for another six months or so, just like it did last year.

After the low rate promise yesterday, what’s likely to be heard next from the Fed is: a) they intend to lower the interest paid on excess reserves to compel banks to lend a little more, or b) they’re going to fiddle with the two trillion dollars in assets they’ve purchased in recent years to somehow convince somebody to do something that would somehow right the quickly sinking ship.

Neither of these steps are likely to have a more lasting impact than yesterday’s move, so, what we’re really looking at here is either the Fed can embark on QE3 and, if all goes well, boost asset prices until mid-2012, or they can sit on their hands and watch the stock market fall further while the jobless rate rises.

Based on the three dissenting votes for yesterday’s action, any subsequent moves by the Fed will be met with similar disapproval by some voting members, however, that’s not likely to stop the doves from printing up another trillion dollars or so for the greater good.

After yesterday’s baby step in that direction, Goldman Sachs said today that QE3 sometime later this year or in early-2012 is now likely and, based on how markets are moving today, it’s hard to disagree with that view, the only variable seeming to be the size and the timing.

With the Dow now closing in on bear market territory while other stock indexes have already breached that level, you’d think that it won’t take too much more of this for the Fed to act. Moreover, the only way that we’ll likely make it to the Jackson Hole group therapy session in two weeks (where a major policy initiative could be announced) without an even more severe breakdown in equity markets is if all the Fed doves start making speeches about QE3 – when, how much, and how they see this as the best of a handful of policy options.

They’re probably already working on those speeches…

Well, it looks like it’s one down, three to go for the Federal Reserve as, today, they promised to keep short-term interest rates freakishly low for at least the next two years (and possibly much longer) while holding in reserve three other options – changing their mix of assets to lower long term rates (which doesn’t appear to be necessary at the moment), spurring banks to lend by paying less on excess reserves, and, of course, the big kahuna of about a trillion dollars more in Treasury purchases, otherwise known as “QE3″.

By promising to keep rates low “at least through mid-2013″ in the policy statement released earlier today, the central bank assured the nation’s big banks of continuing to make big profits for the next two years on the interest rate spreads.

Of course, this will continue to punish the nation’s savers who, for the foreseeable future, will be looking at rates of one percent or less for certificates of deposit.

Good luck, risk averse seniors…

There were three voting members of the Fed who disagreed with this action – Richard Fisher,  Narayana Kocherlakota, and Charles Plosser – so, retirees will at least have some company in objecting to yet another first-of-its-kind monetary policy move that benefits the big banks and hurts the little people.

The Fed also downgraded their outlook on the U.S. economy, noting that growth has been “considerably slower” than they expected so far this year with indicators suggesting “a deterioration in overall labor market conditions”.

As usual, the two statements are shown side-by-side below.

(more…)

In a few hours, the Federal Reserve will weigh in on both the U.S. economy and recent financial market developments and, at this point, only one thing seems certain – they will acknowledge a weakening economy and a plunging stock market.

They will probably tip their hand at further easing in some form (lest today’s rebound rally quickly turn into a dead cat bounce), but fall well short of offering any explicit support, which, in the end might not be such a good idea because, as we saw almost exactly a year ago, financial markets require intervention like a drug addict needs drugs – just words just won’t do.

As detailed last month, the Fed’s options include fiddling with the “extended period” language to guarantee freakishly low interest rates for an even longer time, cutting the interest rate paid on banks’ excess reserves to spur them to lend money into a market where there is a dearth of credit-worthy borrowers who actually want to borrow money, buy longer dated bonds to fiddle with the yield curve, or provide guidance as to how many years (or decades) they intend to wait before reducing their multi-trillion dollar balance sheet.

Of course, what stock market investors really want to hear is that another round of money printing is in the works and that the number being bandied about is a 13-digit one, but, they’re not likely to hear that today.

As an aside, I don’t know about you, but, until this moment, I never thought of one trillion as being a 13-digit number, this apparently being another one of those 21st century oddities where dollar figures spiraling ever higher are no longer suited to 20th century expressions such as “an x-digit number”.

Anyway, they’re probably sitting around the big mahogany conference table right now asking at ten minute intervals,  “The Dow’s still up 200 points. Right?” so they can fine tune the policy statement to be released at 2:15 PM, not wanting to promise too much if markets don’t really need it.

They’ll soon find out that markets need everything the central bank has got and then some.

(more…)

Downgrades, Stocks, Googling Greenspan

Geez… We go away for a couple hours to do some shopping – our little part in support of our consumer economy in these trying times – and the Dow ends up with a 600+ point loss!

It’s safe to say that financial markets aren’t taking the U.S. credit downgrade very well, apparently not realizing that America can just print its way out of its debt troubles. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said as much on Meet the Press yesterday (details here), but, instead of embedding the video below, Googling Greenspan seemed more appropriate.

I haven’t done this in quite some time and was a bit surprised to see the old blog up there with two entries near the top of the list. It’s not clear if Google tailors searches based on what it knows about your computer, so, I’d be interested to hear of readers’ search results using the link above that contains just the basic search info.

Drunken Ben Bernanke

This story from The Onion – America’s Finest News Source – that details how Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke really feels about the U.S. economy has been popping up all over the place in recent days and, after Thursday’s stock market  bloodbath, it’s just a little bit funnier today.

Miller High Life and shots of whiskey apparently loosened Bernanke’s tongue and he let loose with a tirade on inept policy making by elected officials in Washington and was heard to say, “As long as we’re being honest, I might as well tell you that a truer estimate of the U.S. unemployment rate is actually up around 16 percent, with a 0.7 percent annual rate of economic growth if we’re lucky—if we’re lucky“.

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