Federal Reserve | timiacono.com - Part 4

Oil Boom-Bust Redux

The image below (via this story from Canada’s Financial Post) is actually from the 1980s (Texas, perhaps, or maybe Canada – that was a long time ago) when a similar energy boom went bust, leaving untold thousands of people out of work and wondering if they should have, maybe, saved a little more money when times were good in case times turned lean.

The subject of the FP story is, like many others these days in the financial media, whether or not the U.S. and/or Canada are headed for another recession and, naturally, economists are reluctant to answer that generally in the affirmative, even though the evidence is mounting that that’s the direction we’re headed with energy markets central to the discussion.

Two-Term Presidents and U.S. Stocks

Another fine infographic over at the Visual Capitalist reminds us of how the last few eight-year stock cycles coinciding with two-term presidents haven’t worked out so well toward the end of those periods, that is, unless you’re a short-seller.

Of course, the main subject for the infographic is gold as an investment and it’s worth pointing out (as many others have already done so far this year) that the yellow metal is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do at times like this.

Gundlach on the Fed

From this story at Barron’s detailing the views of DoubleLine Capital bond fund king Jeffrey Gundlach at a recent conference come these gems about the central bank’s group therapy session now underway in snow covered Washington D.C.

“Frozen in their thinking”

“The Fed really needs to dial down the rhetoric or the markets will humiliate them with further declines”

The Fed’s models are based on “GDP forecast that has been wrong for years — it’s like the triumph of hope over experience, like a second marriage.”

“What the heck are these people doing?”

“Whistling past the graveyard.”

Of course, it’s all about that little squiggle to the right in the chart below (via this item at Quartz) and, more importantly, the possibility that more squiggles appear.

Boy, that 2004-2006 Greenspan “baby-steps” campaign is a thing of beauty. No?

Everybody Just Relax…

While cavorting with the world’s rich and powerful in Davos, Joe Stiglitz, Professor of Economics at Columbia University and Nobel Laureate in economics, talks about such things as the fragile global economy, income inequality, and the political mood in the U.S.

Somehow, the word “discontent” was omitted from the embedded video above (i.e., “Joseph Stiglitz: Political climate is reflecting a discontent”) – perhaps this was part of some sort of conspiracy to keep voters from getting even more riled up…

Gallows Humor: 2016 Stock Market Edition

Philip van Doorn at Marketwatch has compiled a set of ten hilarious cartoons about the recent stock market swoon with the one below, understandably,  topping the list:

Sadly, this probably describes the experience of a lot of retail investors who, over the years, have paid too much attention to the day-to-day developments and suffered as a result.

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