REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Ben Bernanke’s Advice to Savers

With the possible exception of a dissenting vote by Chicago Fed President Charles Evans in today’s decision by the policy making committee of the central bank to do nothing (Evans apparently wanted more money printing sooner rather than later), there were no real surprises from  the Federal Reserve today – freakishly low interest rates through at least mid-2013 are still on tap, Operation Twist is ongoing, recent economic data showed modest improvement but forecasts were revised downward, and all policy tools remain at the ready.

The press conference following the policy meeting was similarly uneventful as a number of journalists asked about the next round of money printing to buy mortgage backed securities, currently believed to be the preferred option for QE3 after a recent round of speeches by the board.

When asked directly, Chairman Ben Bernanke noted with a little twinkle in his eye that the Fed’s printing presses could indeed be summoned to action if the need arises.

Aside from saying about six or eight times how good a job the central bank is doing in keeping inflation at just two percent (despite the official government data putting it at a three-year high of 3.9 percent just last month), about the only surprise came when the Fed chief  was asked what advice he would offer to savers looking for a decent return on their fixed income investments who are being punished by his freakishly low rates.

Bernanke commented:

We are quite aware that very low interest rates, particularly for a protracted period, do have costs for a lot of people. They have costs for savers … The response is there is a greater good here which is the health and recovery of the U.S. economy and for that purpose we’ve been keeping monetary policy accommodative … After all, savers are not going to get very good returns in an economy which is in a deep recession. Ultimately, if you want to earn money on your investments, you have to invest in an economy that is growing.

Tell that to some 75-year old with $50,000 in the bank who, up until Bernanke became Fed Chairman, could at least count on this tidy little sum to generate a few thousand dollars a year in risk-free returns to help pay the bills.







Mortgage Backed Securities for Fed’s QE3?

Well, it looks like Bill Gross is going to have a shot at boosting the lagging returns of his huge Pimco Total Return Fund (PTTAX)  during the closing months of the year after having recently added a big stake in mortgage backed securities. It now appears the Federal Reserve will soon be a much bigger buyer of these assets, at least according to this WSJ report($) by the central bank’s mouthpiece, Jon Hilsenrath (I don’t know if there’s any way you can be the main WSJ guy when it comes to the Fed without being called its “mouthpiece”).

Federal Reserve officials are starting to build a case for a new program of buying mortgage-backed securities to boost the ailing economy, though they appear unlikely to move swiftly.

The idea would be to target any new efforts by the central bank at the parts of the economy that are most severely impeding a recovery—the housing and mortgage markets—by working to push down mortgage rates.

Lower mortgage rates, in turn, could encourage more home buying and mortgage-refinancing, and help the economy by freeing up cash for consumers to spend on other goods and services. Mortgage rates are already very low, but some Fed officials believe they might be pushed lower. Moreover, Fed officials believe their past purchase programs helped to lift stock markets, by driving investors from low-risk investments toward riskier investments.

The Fed discussions occur amid broader efforts in the government to find ways to revive housing markets and stir refinancing.

“I believe we should move back up toward the top of the list of options the large-scale purchase of additional mortgage-backed securities,” Federal Reserve governor Dan Tarullo said in a speech Thursday at Columbia University.

Combined with an upcoming government program to refinance mortgages that commercial banks won’t – due to the homeowner having too little equity or other reasons – the Fed’s effort to make mortgage rates even more freakishly low is believed to be the best bet at aiding the U.S. housing market.

We’ll see if it helps housing. The bigger impact will likely come for other asset classes when investment banks start talking about the size of QE3. My guess would be $800 billion – bigger than QE2, but not above the $1 trillion mark that would signal panic.

Jim’s Excellent OWS Adventure

This story by Jim Quinn about his trip to New York City last weekend to visit the Occupy Wall Street protest was in the links section here the other day, but I just got around to reading it a short time ago. Filled with dozens of pictures like the one below, it’s well worth the time to read in order to get a different perspective of what the protest is all about.

The picture above caught my eye – the juxtaposition of an OWS protester’s cardboard boxes and a Brooks Brothers store along with a Vietnam veteran (who was yelling that this isn’t the country he fought for) and the omnipresent NYPD.

It’s nice to see that the Federal Reserve is a big part of the discussion now taking place amongst the Occupy Wall Street crowd and this young man seems to have a pretty good grasp of this issue along with many others, the widely viewed video below being pretty compelling stuff even before you hit play, simply because of the freeze frame image.

Rep Ron Paul (R-TX) surely had a lot to do with the views expressed here and he probably got a nice little grin if he was one of the 320,000+ people to have viewed this.

Herman Cain’s 2006 Investment Advice

After watching the ascent of GOP hopeful Herman Cain, I couldn’t help but think that his name had graced the pages of this blog before, and a simple search turned up this story from 2006, in which it becomes clear that, if Cain is elected to the nation’s top political post next year, hopefully he’ll do a better job running the country than he did picking stocks, as the housing bubble was about to burst. The 2006 article, in its entirety, follows.

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Supply Sider Investment Advice

June 11, 2006

There’s been a little yellow sticky note at the top of my computer monitor since the end of January of this year. It says, “1/21 – Cavuto – Herman Cain – BZH – $75″, in reference to a recommendation made by Herman Cain on the Fox business news show Cavuto on Business to buy Beazer Homes at $75 about five months ago.

It’s been sitting there for a while now, and it wasn’t really clear what should be done with it aside from maybe adding it to the collection of prognostications that are kept in a text file on my computer desktop. But that text file contains predictions from people whose opinions are respected here, so Herman’s little stock tip really didn’t fit neatly into that category.

So, when John Rutledge started talking about commodities the other day on Larry Kudlow’s show (a program that is viewed here about once every few weeks, and then only to listen to Barry Ritholtz and Herb Greenberg unsuccessfully try to beat some sense into Larry’s skull on Thursday afternoons) the idea was hatched to combine these two bits of supply-sider clairvoyance into a short little Sunday post to demonstrate the dangers that lie in wait for anyone taking investment advice from these types.

First, what followed Herman’s prediction:

[Continue reading this article at Seeking Alpha.]

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GOP Hopefuls Do Not ♥ Ben Bernanke

Poor Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was the subject of intense criticism by GOP Presidential candidates during last night’s debate, though Texas Governor Rick Perry, who started all the Fed bashing about a month ago when he warned the Fed Chief to stay away from Texas, was noticeably silent on the subject. Details are in this report at Reuters.

Newt Gingrich led the charge. Asked if the nationwide Occupy Wall Street movement had a valid grievance about income inequality and the out-sized influence of big banks, the former House speaker pivoted:

“If they want to really change things, the first person to fire is Bernanke, who is a disastrous chairman of the Federal Reserve,” said Gingrich.

“Bernanke has in secret spent hundreds of billions of dollars bailing out one group and not bailing out another group. I think it is corrupt and it is wrong for one man to have that kind of secret power.”

“I wouldn’t keep Bernanke in office. I would choose someone of my own,” said Republican front-runner Mitt Romney, who did not include Bernanke when doling out praise to Bush and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson for pulling the financial system back from the precipice in late 2008.

(Ron) Paul termed Bernanke’s predecessor, Alan Greenspan “a disaster” because of policies that fueled investment bubbles such as the early 2000s Internet stock boom and bust.

“Bernanke compounds the problem,” Paul said. “He’s inflating twice as fast as Greenspan.”

Bernanke’s term ends in early-2014, so, should any of these GOP hopefuls occupy the White House beginning in early-2013, it should make for an interesting and awkward period leading up to the nomination process in the fall.

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