Superhero Central Bankers Flying Blind

Now here’s a big vote of confidence for all those smart economists with PhDs who are now now running the world’s central banks – not one, but two, stories in the mainstream financial media today questioning whether they know what they’re doing.

First, from the Financial Times comes this story in which we learn that, central bankers themselves say they’re flying blind.

Central Bankers Say They Are Flying Blind

Growing concern at the International Monetary Fund over the long-term side-effects of interest rates close to zero came as some of the leading figures in central banking conceded they were flying blind when steering their economies.

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, the former member of the European Central Bank’s executive board, captured the mood at the IMF’s spring meeting, saying: “We don’t fully understand what is happening in advanced economies.”

In what is equally refreshing and disturbing, they admit to not knowing what they were doing before the financial crisis as well as during and after it, that is, assuming it’s over (which it probably isn’t).

In this lengthier Reuters report, central banker are seen as superheroes without a script.

Central bankers cast as superheroes with no script

“The danger that we drown in money is small compared to the danger that we slide deeper into crisis and that it gets harder to get out,” said Marcel Fratzscher, former head of research at the ECB and now head of Germany’s DIW economic institute.

But nowhere is unease about expanding the role of central banks greater than in Germany, home to the fiercely independent Bundesbank.

Germans worry that relying on central banks minting cash creates a dangerous illusion that there are pain-free fixes to largely political, social or demographic problems.

I guess that’s the message here – everyone seems to want solutions that are pain-free and the world’s central banks are about the only ones that seem capable of providing that.







A trio of new surveys from Gallup point to a rapidly changing outlook by Americans on such topics as the economy, housing, and investment classes in general, real estate and precious metals in particular. First, after holding steady in recent weeks as other measures of consumer confidence faded, this Gallup survey is now showing weakness too.

While they may not feel as good about the economy in general, rising home prices have Americans feeling confident about this trend continuing according to this poll.

Given the above, it should come as no surprise that Americans’ preferred asset class is no longer gold, but housing, as detailed in this survey. Since this poll was conducted prior to the early-April sell-off in precious metals, look for recent trends to accelerate next time.

We’re pretty good at noticing trends and projecting those trends into the future…

The recent gold sell-off has spurred an avalanche of commentary on the merits of including the precious metal in one’s investment portfolio and, not surprisingly, there has been a fair amount of gloating by those who never thought much of the idea in the first place.

A plunge of over $200 an ounce in just two days and a gold price that is now almost 30 percent below its 2011 record high has many pundits declaring victory over a metal that, aside from jewelry and limited industrial use, has little value.

Little value, that is, aside from functioning as money and a store of value for thousands of years.

The fact that, to some extent, gold is in competition with current day money gets little attention from the yellow metal’s detractors.

Rather, most who now kick gold while it’s down (after 13 years of impressive gains) focus on the world’s economy and global financial system having sufficiently healed after the multiple crises of a few years ago as reason not to be fearful any longer.

Fear, they say, is the reason that people buy gold and, now that things are looking up, there is little reason to own it.

A lot of investors seem to have come to that same conclusion.

[To continue reading this article, please visit Seeking Alpha.]

More Startling Student Loan Statistics

In this story from the other day, University of California at San Diego economist James Hamilton takes a look at some of the latest data on student loans and, you guessed it, things are worse than you might think (or, at least, than I thought).

As shown above, when excluding those student loans that are not yet in repayment, the default rate isn’t in the teens (as widely reported), it’s more like 30 percent – nearly a third. Presumably, this report about waiving the taxes due on forgiven student loan debt in the new White House budget is a response to this situation.

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The Stockman Book Tour Juggernaut

David Stockman’s book tour appears to be going quite well as he continues to get lots of press for such views as his characterization of the Federal Reserve as a serial bubble blowing machine and the U.S. economy being a giant Ponzi scheme. His ongoing feud with Nobel Laureate economist Paul Krugman has likely boosted book sales as well and he talked to Bill Maher on Friday about government spending as shown below.

Also see this clip of Stockman on the Neil Cavuto show last week where, presumably, he felt as though he was in friendly confines and really let loose on the Bernanke Fed.

Reinflating the Housing Bubble

After all the recent talk of central banks inflating new asset bubbles and of soaring property prices (home values in our neck of the woods are said to be up 25 percent in the last year), the message in the video below (spotted at the Azizonomics blog) is worth remembering.

We in the “Anglo-American property owning democracy” don’t seem to tire of asset bubbles. It’s as if former Fed Chief Alan Greenspan has trained an entire generation to expect them.

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