REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Consumers Shrug Off Surging Gas Prices

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index reversed January’s decline with a February surge to near the recovery high as an improving labor market seems to have trumped surging gasoline prices … for the time being. The index jumped from 61.5 last month to 70.8, just down from the recovery high of 72.0 one year ago.

Those saying jobs were “hard to get” fell from 43.3 percent to 38.7 percent, the lowest since late-2008, as Americans were more confident about their earning potential, 15.4 percent expecting their income to rise versus only 12.7 percent who were pessimistic.

In looking at the relationship between consumer confidence and gasoline prices above, it would appear that there has not yet been enough time for recently surging pump prices to have an impact on consumer outlooks as has happened reliably in the past.

The fact that the winter gas price surge has been so sudden and that miles driven at this time of the year are far less than in the spring and summer would suggest Americans still don’t fully appreciate how much $4 and $5 gas prices are going to hurt.

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New Lows for Case Shiller Home Prices

Standard & Poor’s reported that home prices continued to decline in late-2011, the national composite index down 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter, 4.0 percent lower for the year, while both the 10-City and 20-City monthly indexes declined 1.1 percent in December and saw annual returns of -3.9 percent and -4.0 percent, respectively.

Property values fell in 18 of the 20 regions in the index as Phoenix and Miami – two areas hit particularly hard during the bursting of the housing bubble – posted modest advances. Detroit led all declining regions with a drop of 3.8 percent in December, followed by Chicago and Atlanta where prices were down 2.0 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the 10-city and 20-city indexes fell only 0.5 percent to close out 2011, their sixth straight monthly decline, and both indexes indicated that home prices were down four percent for the year.

(more…)

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Those Amazing Treasury Yields

One of the many financial oddities in recent months, that is, ever since the European sovereign debt situation entered about its sixth crisis phase over the last two-and-a-half years, is that, now that the latest crisis appears to be over and investors’ mood has again switched from “risk off” to “risk on”, nobody’s selling their super safe Treasuries. The chart below from this Fidelity viewpoints item provides another example of how the historical relationship between U.S. debt and everything else has broken down lately.

Some say the bond market knows something that other markets don’t about the true health of the economy and credit markets while others blame the Fed for making the U.S. bond market dysfunctional with its huge asset purchases in recent years and its “Operation Twist” program of selling short-term debt to buy long dated securities. One thing is certain – the recent stability in long-term Treasuries at near record low yields won’t last forever.

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Grantham, Shakespeare on Debt

As always, Jeremy Grantham’s quarterly investment letter(.pdf) is well worth reading, a good portion of it taking up the issue of how capitalism has failed us and another recounting GMO’s surprisingly good market calls over the years, but item number two in the section on investment advice was what grabbed my attention:

“Neither a lender nor a borrower be.” If you borrow to invest, it will interfere with your survivability. Unleveraged portfolios cannot be stopped out, leveraged portfolios can. Leverage reduces the investor’s critical asset: patience. (To digress, excessive borrowing has turned out to be an even bigger curse than Polonius could have known. It encourages financial aggressiveness, recklessness, and greed. It increases your returns over and over until, suddenly, it ruins you. For individuals, it allows you to have today what you really can’t afford until tomorrow. It has proven to be so seductive that individuals en masse have shown themselves incapable of resisting it, as if it were a drug. Governments also, from the Middle Ages onwards and especially now, it seems, have proven themselves equally incapable of resistance. Any sane society must recognize the lure of debt and pass laws accordingly. Interest payments must absolutely not be tax deductible or preferred in any way. Governments must apparently be treated like Polonius’s children and given limits. By law, cumulative government debt should be given a sensible limit of, say, 50% of GDP, with current transgressions given 10 or 20 years to be corrected.)

In Shakespeare’s Hamlet, it was Polonius who said, “Neither a borrower nor a lender be”, words of wisdom that seem to have gone out of fashion over the last thirty years or so but that now seem to be making a strong comeback.

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Back in Time, Lost Decades, etc.

Using a variety of economic indicators, this item in The Economist’s Daily Chart section provide a depiction of how economies around the world have fared in recent years, from the point of view of how far the Great Recession has set them back.

No big surprise there with Greece taking down the top … er, bottom … spot, but the U.S. coming in third with economic conditions set back to late-2001, is a bit of a shocker. Germany has recovered nicely from the recession and their position relative to Greece goes a long way in explaining why the Greek bailout has been so difficult.

My guess is that a chart depicting the amount of new debt taken on prior to the bust would result in  about the same country order as the upper-left graphic above.

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Achuthan Unbowed – Recession Still Looms

ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute defends their recession call from five months ago in this appearance on CNBC, much to the chagrin of the CNBC hosts who would much prefer that everyone just keep feeling better about the economy.

It’s kind of funny that, in checking to make sure I had Achuthan’s name spelled correctly via Google, the basic search results show entry after entry of “Lakshman Achuthan Stands By His Recession Call”, “Achuthan: The Recession is still Coming”, “ECRI Sticks to Recession Call, Even Amid Positive Signs”, “ECRI Reaffirms Recession Call”, etc.

I guess it won’t be so funny if he turns out to be right…

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