[This look back at the thinking amongst Federal Reserve economists leading up to the tumultuous events of mid-2008 - oil peaking at almost $150 a barrel amid soaring prices for metals and agricultural goods and an official inflation rate of about five percent - is particularly relevant three years later, the only apparent difference being the replacement of the verb "moderate" with the central bank's new favorite inflation adjective "transitory". Originally published on May 1st, 2008, this item chronicled the Fed's outlook for inflation going back over 19 FOMC meetings, all of which were wide of the mark, though, in their defense, they (wisely) never did state the time frame they were referring to. A more accurate forecast would have been that, "Inflation is likely to crash along with the rest of the economy." An added bonus appears in the third paragraph below - a three-year old reference to the inability of Apple products to feed the poor, this one from the pre-iPad era.]
ooo
Below are excerpts from two years worth of FOMC policy statements from the Ben Bernanke-led Federal Reserve on the subject of the future course of inflation in the U.S.
With gasoline at $4 and food prices soaring, does anyone really believe that anything having to do with prices is going to moderate anytime in the foreseeable future?
Well, that is, aside from iPods and iPhones. It’s too bad you can’t run your car on Apple products or feed a family with them.
(more…)





A number of you have sent links to the Barron’s story about former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan’s mysterious doctoral thesis – thanks.
One of the many lingering after-effects of the Greenspan term at the Fed is that a huge amount of home equity had been extracted, but not yet paid back by homeowners who had no plans to sell their home.
In years past, central bank selling of gold could always be relied upon to stop the flight away from paper money – when investors swapped their fiat money for gold bars, then saw the price of the metal drop as central bank bullion was dumped onto commodity exchanges, the metal’s price would plummet and a lesson was learned.


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