REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

[This look back at the thinking amongst Federal Reserve economists leading up to the tumultuous events of mid-2008 - oil peaking at almost $150 a barrel amid soaring prices for metals and agricultural goods and an official inflation rate of about five percent - is particularly relevant three years later, the only apparent difference being the replacement of the verb "moderate" with the central bank's new favorite inflation adjective "transitory". Originally published on May 1st, 2008, this item chronicled  the Fed's outlook for inflation going back over 19 FOMC meetings, all of which were wide of the mark, though, in their defense, they (wisely) never did state the time frame they were referring to. A more accurate forecast would have been that, "Inflation is likely to crash along with the rest of the economy." An added bonus appears in the third paragraph below - a three-year old reference to the inability of Apple products to feed the poor, this one from the pre-iPad era.]

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Below are excerpts from two years worth of FOMC policy statements from the Ben Bernanke-led Federal Reserve on the subject of the future course of inflation in the U.S.

With gasoline at $4 and food prices soaring, does anyone really believe that anything having to do with prices is going to moderate anytime in the foreseeable future?

Well, that is, aside from iPods and iPhones. It’s too bad you can’t run your car on Apple products or feed a family with them.
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Greenspan Overfloweth

[As noted a couple days ago, in addition to all the other foreboding signs for the U.S. economy and financial markets, April of 2008 wasn't a very good month for former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan since he was out promoting his autobiography at the same time that people started looking for someone to blame for what they saw happening all around them. It all reached a peak early in the month after a flurry of Greenspan appearances that were followed by dozens of stories in the mainstream financial media debating his culpability. A compilation of stories - A Post Mortem on Greenspan Week - was provided on April 13th, but, prior to that, on April 8th, 2008, this humble little blog was mentioned in the Wall Street Journal. Really. I'm not kidding.]

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Sometimes the best defense is a good offense and that clearly seems to be the tack that former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan has been taking as an increasing number of individuals lay the blame for the current economic and financial mess at his feet.

Given the circumstances, that seems a reasonable response, but a much better solution to his current “blame problem” would have been a more proactive approach years ago.

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[A lot of people were beginning to ask a lot of questions in early-2008 as energy prices continued their relentless rise (retail gasoline prices were climbing past $3.50 a gallon for the first time) and more subprime mortgage lending troubles were bubbling to the surface, apparently not "contained" as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke opined the year before. James Grant probably put it best when he famously said, "Yes, the subprime problems are contained ... to planet Earth". In one of many memorable appearances on Capitol Hill that year, in this item from April 2nd, 2008, the Fed Chief sought to assure elected officials and financial markets that things weren't quite as bad as they seemed.]

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At the Joint Economic Committee group therapy session today, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that a recession was possible (which really means he’s pretty sure we’re already in one), Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) asked a four minute long question about “the business cycle” that nobody understood, Senator Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.) compared “unsafe financial products” to Chinese toys with lead paint, Sen Robert Bennett (R-Utah) talked about the Dutch Tulip mania, and Rep Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.) fretted about her rapidly declining net worth now that both housing and stock prices are falling.

But, the real star of today’s Senate hearing was Representative Elijah Cummings (D-Maryland), who started off by reminding the Fed chief how awful a forecaster he’s been before pleading for somebody to do something to help his constituents.

Some highlights:
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[The year of the Great Unraveling - 2008 - provides a treasure trove of material at the old blog and selecting the month of April to reminisce (as has been done throughout my absence) provides some interesting insight to what people were thinking five or six months prior to the wheels falling off in the fall. For anyone thinking that 2011 is now "rhyming" a lot with 2008, pay close attention to the items that will appear here in the days ahead. As for today, what better way to start off this look back with this item about former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, originally published on April 2nd, 2008, who people were just starting to realize had made a real mess of things. It was not a good month for the former Maestro.]

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A number of you have sent links to the Barron’s story about former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan’s mysterious doctoral thesis – thanks.

We’ll get to that in a minute.

As part of an email exchange with CR on this topic, the well-known piece of writing from 1967 came up – Gold and Economic Freedom – and, one thing led to another, ultimately resulting in the title of this post.

Not having read this piece in quite some time, save for the well-worn second to last paragraph that seems to pop up everywhere and begins, “In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation”, another quick read reveals a rather remarkable 40-year old:
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[Closing out a short trip through the 2007 archives with an item about mortgage lending seemed like a good idea since, at that time, most homeowners and lenders had come to understand that housing wasn't in a bull market any more but, rather, a bubble, and that prices were undergoing some serious reversals. The bad news was that all the debt stayed in place. This story from April 26th, 2007 details the multi-year rise in home equity loans and withdrawals - "tapping your equity" as they used to fondly say - as Americans began to realize that all the money they'd been spending in recent years wasn't really theirs to spend. Not surprisingly, today, home equity "extraction" (another popular term back then) has come to a virtual standstill, due in no small part to the dramatic decline in home prices leaving homeowners with far less equity to "tap". Two related items can be found here and here.]

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One of the many lingering after-effects of the Greenspan term at the Fed is that a huge amount of home equity had been extracted, but not yet paid back by homeowners who had no plans to sell their home.

If your mortgage is more than a few years old, it no longer makes sense to refinance the extracted equity back into a new first mortgage for three reasons. First, you’d have to start back at month one on the loan amortization schedule; second, you probably won’t get a lower interest rate; and third, you’ll have more loan fees to pay.

Now, many homeowners who plan to stay put for awhile, especially those who have just completed major improvements on their homes, are getting squeezed every month as they service the home equity debt that seemed like found money just a couple years ago.

This was confirmed earlier today when it was learned that Americans are much less willing to take money out of their homes and spend it now that home prices are falling across the country and interest rates show no signs of coming back down.

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Central Banks and their Gold

[During this stroll down memory lane while my wife and I travel to the East Coast and back, it seemed like a good idea to try and find one story that deals with precious metals for each of the years covered - 2005 through 2010. I didn't see anything for 2005, but since that was a whopping one month after the blog was launched, that's understandable. Here's one that was originally published on April 18th, 2007 - back when gold had been meandering around the $600 mark for a year and silver seemed stuck at about $13 an ounce. What you're about to read below about central bank gold sales in 2007 is particularly interesting in light of what's happened since that time - the IMF gold sales were snapped up by central banks in Asia and European central bank gold sales have come to a virtual halt.]

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After months of steady decline for the U.S. Dollar when measured against other floating currencies, the battle against the world’s oldest currency is now escalating.

It is a battle for the hearts and minds of much of the world’s population as an alternative to the dollar is sought – choose another country’s paper money or go with the world’s oldest money.

In years past, central bank selling of gold could always be relied upon to stop the flight away from paper money – when investors swapped their fiat money for gold bars, then saw the price of the metal drop as central bank bullion was dumped onto commodity exchanges, the metal’s price would plummet and a lesson was learned.

This has gone on for decades, but with more central banks in developing economies now buying bullion and with organizations such Germany’s Bundesbank balking at any future sales (apparently not having forgotten the lessons of their Weimar days 84 years ago), this may be coming to an end.

For years, commodity bull Jim Rogers has stated that the reason he views the yellow metal as just another commodity is because the world’s central bankshave too much of the stuff – they can continue to sell into the market to depress the price for many years.

Well, that may no longer be the case.

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