REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

The Comfort of Low Interest Rates

In this video that makes up in content for what it lacks in production quality, Bruce Krasting asks some of the same questions that others are asking about U.S. borrowing and the comfort – false or otherwise – currently provided by low long-term interest rates.

Recall from this item last week that interest rates are surprisingly terrible at predicting debt crises in the near-term since, for a very long time, things seem to be going along smoothly until you wake up one day and borrowing costs are rising about as fast as the silver price.

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New Home Sales Rise 11%, So What?

The Commerce Department reported(.pdf) that new home sales rose 11.1 percent in March, spurring a number of hopeful headlines in the mainstream financial media and no doubt giving a goodly number of realtors and homebuilders a dash of renewed vigor, but, they might want to keep the bubbly stored safely away.

The increase to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 300,000 units last month after a drop of 13.5 percent in February leaves the current sales rate just 11 percent above the all-time low reached in, well, February. This puts the sales total a full 78 percent below the peak reached back in 2005 and about one-third the pre-housing bubble average level.

The inventory of unsold homes fell from 8.2 months of supply in February to 7.3 months in March, but, does anyone really care anymore?

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Silver Bubble? Washington Bubble?

Yes, silver is looking even more bubbly than usual as more foreign bankers wonder about holding assets denominated in little green slips of paper issued by the U.S. government, however, Time Magazine reports on what is a much more important bubble.

Forgive the blurriness, since, even if you have a subscription to Time, you still can’t see this image online and, as such this had to be scanned from page 19 of the current issue and, despite a noble clean up effort, imagery from the opposite page has bled through. But, it all seemed worth the effort, just to see the relative influence of the FIRE economy.

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American Stock Ownership Declines

New insight into how Americans feel about stocks and other asset classes is provided in this Gallup poll that shows the fewest number of Americans own individual stocks, stock mutual funds, or stocks in their retirement plan since the survey began in 1999.

Another poll question reveals that real estate is still viewed as the best long-term investment among the general population, but, of the 54 percent that own stocks, housing ranks a close second behind equities.

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In this front page Wall Street Journal story today, Jon Hilsenrath provides the historical backdrop for and provides a preview of next week’s important Federal Open Market Committee Meeting and the first-of-its-kind press conference that will follow.

Next Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will do something no Fed chief has done before: Stand before a room full of journalists after officials conclude a policy meeting and answer questions about the central bank’s decisions.

Inflation is climbing, in large part due to surging food and energy prices. Unemployment remains high and economic growth disappointed in the first quarter. Mr. Bernanke seems intent on leaving the central bank’s ultralow-interest-rate policy in place for now, but he faces vocal opposition in his ranks.In stepping out now, the chairman has a chance to assert his voice over the Fed’s cacophonous internal debates—before any of his colleagues can get to a microphone—and reassure the public that he’ll keep inflation under control.

Despite internal opposition, Mr. Bernanke and his top lieutenants—Vice Chairwoman Janet Yellen and New York Fed President William Dudley—have signaled they believe it is too soon to start raising rates. Though inflation is rising, they believe consumer-price increases will prove transient, as occurred in a 2008 run-up in food and energy prices. The press conference will give Mr. Bernanke a chance to explain this view to a sometimes skeptical public.

Based on those poll numbers in the graphic, in the minds of many Americans and in the words of Ricky Ricardo, Bernanke has a lot of ’splainin to do, particularly if gas prices reach an average of $4 next week by the time he bellies up to the microphone. According to the report (which is in the public section of the WSJ website and well worth reading in its entirety), he’s been rehearsing quite a bit, maybe preparing for some rogue journalist to bring up the latest XtraNormal video on inflation or quantitative easing. Hopefully, he won’t use the iPad2 as an example of how prices really aren’t rising that much.

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Inflation in Africa

As if they didn’t have enough to worry about in Africa when it comes to buying food – the AP reporting today on the latest round of protests after the price of wheat, rice, and maize soared 87 percent, 30 precent, and 25 percent, respectively, in the last three months – in Zimbabwe, according to this BBC report, an ATM has been spitting out the old currency.

An ATM in Zimbabwe’s capital Harare has been issuing the old national currency, sparking rumours that the defunct bills are back in circulation.

For the last two years, Zimbabwe has used US dollars and South African rand after its world record inflation rates rendered its dollars worthless.

The BBC’s Brian Hungwe in Harare says most Zimbabweans have no wish to see the return of million-dollar notes.

The bank manager said the notes had been left inside the ATM by mistake.

Our reporter says a woman approached an Interfin Bank ATM in central Harare on Tuesday to withdraw $110 (£67). But to the her horror, it spat out wads of old worthless Zimbabwean dollar notes.

They note that hyper inflation in Zimbabwe reached a peak annual rate of 13.2 billion percent two years ago, just before they abandoned it, leading to the obvious question, “What’s Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe President Gideon Gono doing with himself these days?” According to Wikipedia, he’s still in charge at the central bank, but, without a national currency, you’d think there is much less for him to do.

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