REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

U.S. markets are off their lows, but they don’t appear headed back to where they started, the nearly 300 point downward excursion for the Dow reminiscent of late-2008 when moves of this magnitude were almost commonplace. According to this report at CNBC, Dr. Marc Faber thinks Fed Chief Ben Bernanke’s money printing finger might already be getting twitchy.

If Market Keeps Falling, Fed Will Keep Printing: ‘Dr. Doom’

Falling stock prices will be met only with more money injections from the Federal Reserve, Marc Faber, the so-called “Dr. Doom,” told CNBC.

Speaking as global markets fell violently lower in the wake of the Japan earthquake and fears of a nuclear meltdown, Faber said a stock correction actually is healthy in view of how far equities have come from the March 2009 lows.

He also expects weakness to persist and the Standard & Poor’s 500 to drop as much as 15 percent. Further, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will likely give the green light to another round of Treasurys purchases, which have come to be known as quantitative easing, he said.

“We may drop 10 to 15 percent. Then QE 3 will come, (then) QE 4, QE 5, QE 6, QE 7—whatever you want. The money printer will continue to print, that I’m sure,” said the author of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report. Later in the interview, he added, “Actually I made a mistake. I meant to say QE 18.”

“I think Mr. Bernanke doesn’t know much about the global economy but he probably watches the S&P every day,” he said.

“Until very recently the Feds have had very few critiques, very few people criticized the Fed’s policies under Mr. Greenspan and Mr. Bernanke,” Faber added. “Over the last few months, a lot of critical comments have come up about the Fed and its money-printing habit. The S&P drops 20 percent (and) all the critics will be silent and they will all applaud new money-printing.”

That much is absolutely certain. Any threat of the current bull market turning into a bear market – remember, a 20 percent decline for the Dow would mean a drop of  almost 2,500 points – would see many Fed alarmists quickly turn into Fed cheerleaders, what has sadly become “business as usual” in 21st century financial markets.







It’s not clear whether Utah’s governor will sign off on the bill and, if so, what sort of logistical problems will be faced when enacted, but the state legislature sure seems to think it would be a good idea to get gold and silver circulating again in the economy as legal tender – at market value, not face value.

Details are provided in this story at Mineweb as economists and financiers in New York along with elected officials and sound money opponents in Washington are no doubt shaking their heads about those crazy hard money advocates in flyover country.

A bill which requires Utah to recognize gold and silver as legal tender is now awaiting the signature of Republican Gov. Gary Herbert, who has yet to take a stance on the issue.

However, HB317 does not compel a person to tender or accept gold and silver coin. The measure also requires gold and silver coins to be valued at their current market value.

Larry Hilton, an attorney and insurance salesman who authored the Utah Sound Money Act, told the Salt Lake Tribune last December, “It’s not intended to be compulsory in any way. The state is offering to taxpayers, ‘If you want to pay your taxes in gold or silver, we’ll accept them.’”

Meanwhile, the bill also establishes a nonrefundable credit for any capital gains incurred “from the exchange of gold and silver coin issued by the federal government for another form of legal tender…” While gold and silver transactions would be exempted from the state’s capital gains tax, they would still face federal taxes.

Recall that gold and silver coins are still legal tender in the U.S., that is, if you’re looking to, basically, throw money away by using them as such. It has always struck me as one of the great monetary anomalies in this country where you can take a one ounce gold coin that says $50 on its face and either deposit it in your bank account in return for a credit of $50 or go across the street to a coin shop and get almost 30 times that amount in cash.

Apparently, almost a dozen other states have similar legal tender bills, but none have made it this far. But, with gas prices approaching $4 a gallon again, that might soon change.

Balance Sheet Recessions Explained

This video has popped up in a number of places recently – Richard Koo explains what a balance sheet recessions is, how we got into one, and why QE1, QE2, QEx are not helping.

Like many other areas of contemporary economic thought, what bugs me most about this “juicy rationalization” of our current predicament is that, it as if the world’s economists woke up one day only to discover that everyone had borrowed and spent too much money, just like, in October of 1929, the stock market crashed, and thus the trouble began.

Reckless expansion of money and credit rarely ends well, something that far too few policymakers and dismal scientists seem to acknowledge as the root cause of the worst two financial market and economic disasters of the last century.

Perhaps Jeremy Grantham put it best not long ago after being asked how he would remedy the world’s economic ills when he quipped, “Well, I wouldn’t start from here”.

Now, that’s the way you do it.

Due in no small part to record money printing by the central bank, the value of households’ assets rose by $2.1 trillion in the fourth quarter of last year year while debt increased by a paltry $26 billion. As shown below via the Federal Reserve’s latest Z1 Flow of Funds data, it looks like we’re now well into another bubble hand-off – first from stocks to housing during the 2000-2003 time period, now from housing to stocks in the post-2008 era.

Historians will no doubt look back on this data – collected and reported right there at the Fed – and wonder how it could be that monetary policy in the late-20th and early-21st century was aimed squarely at inflating one asset bubble after another – inflating a new one after the previous one burst.

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In this commentary today, Amity Shlaes informs us there’s a new Atlas Shrugged movie coming out on the 15th of next month – tax day. After just finishing Matt Taibbi’s Griftopia, it seemed like a worthwhile exercise to pass along a few notes about Ayn Rand, the book’s author, and her most prominent disciple, former Fed chief Alan Greenspan.

Greenspan met Rand in the early 50s after leaving Colombia, attending meetings at Rand’s apartment with a circle of like-minded intellectual jerk offs who call themselves by the ridiculous name “The Collective” and who provided Greenspan with the desired forum for social ascent.

These meetings of The Collective would have an enormous impact on American culture by birthing a crackpot anti-theology dedicated to legitimizing relentless self-interest – a grotesquerie called Objectivism that hit the upper East side cocktail circuit party hard in the 50s and 60s.

It is important to spend some time on the seriously demented early history of Objectivism because this lunatic religion that should have choked to death in his sleep decades ago, would go on, thanks in large part to Greenspan, to provide virtually the entire intellectual context for the financial disasters of the 21st century.

A typical meeting of Rand’s collective would involve its members challenging one another to prove they exist. “How do you explain the fact that you are here?” one collective member recalls asking Greenspan.  “Do you require proof of anything beyond your own senses?”

Greenspan played along with this horseshit and in that instance, reportedly offered a typically hedging answer. “I think that I exist. But, I don’t know for sure”, he reportedly said, “Actually, I can’t be sure that anything exists”.

Rand’s book, Atlas Shrugged, remains a towering monument to humanity’s capacity for unrestrained self-pity. It’s a bizarre and incredibly long-winded piece of aristocratic paranoia in which a group of Randian Superman decide to break off from the rest of society and form a pure free-market utopia and, naturally, the parasitic lower classes immediately drown in their own laziness and ineptitude.

There’s much more about Greenspan and Rand in Griftopia, central themes throughout the book. It’s well worth reading in its entirety, though I beg to differ on some of his conclusions about the “commodity bubble”, a topic that will be covered here later this week.

Hedge Funds Turn Bearish on U.S. Stocks?

Charles Biderman of TrimTabs talks to Maria Bartiromo at CNBC about the sharp rise in bearish sentiment amongst hedge fund managers – up from 26 percent in January to 40 percent in February – and the prospects for the stock market rally to continue.

While it’s important to remember that correlation is not causation, Biderman points out the remarkable post-financial market crash relationship between a rising Fed balance sheet and rising stock prices. Interestingly, after more than two years of outflows, the latest data from the Investment Company Institute shows continued inflows to stock mutual funds by Mom and Pop investors who almost always arrive late to parties like this…

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