REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Tantalizing Housing Market Bottom Calls

While the debate about whether the U.S. housing market has hit bottom is certainly heating up, hopefully it won’t rise to the current temperature of the brouhaha over whether last Friday’s labor market report was good, bad, indifferent, or just an outright fabrication by the Obama administration in an increasingly contentious election year.

I don’t know about you, but I can’t tell the politics from the statistics when trying to make sense of  last Friday’s monthly jobs report and, at this point, I don’t care anymore.

As for the housing market, none other than Bill McBride at the wildly popular Calculated Risk blog weighed in on the subject yesterday declaring The Housing Bottom Is Here, a view that you find out at the end of the article isn’t quite as strongly held as you might think from just reading the title.

Bill notes there are two housing markets – new home construction and existing home sales – and, while the former has clearly made a bottom, the latter is likely to do so next month, though he qualifies that prediction with words like “I think that house prices are close to a bottom” and there being “a reasonable chance that the bottom is here”.

Now, caveats notwithstanding, this is still a big deal since Calculated Risk isn’t just an ordinary offering out there in the blogosphere. This particular blog happened to be calling the US housing market a bubble back when few had an inkling of the trouble to come and, for that reason alone, his is an opinion worth listening to.

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The Rise of Central Bank Balance Sheets

Referenced in this Cumberland Advisors commentary by David Kotok on the subject of central banks and gold was the graphic below depicting how the balance sheets of major central banks around the world have changed since the world changed back in 2008.

If you were to extend the chart to the left, you’d see that bank assets rose modestly for decades while the many economic/financial imbalances were being built up as the end of “The Great Moderation” signaled the beginning of “The Great Central Bank Intervention”.

In all, there are a dozen or so more images in this depressingly good collection of charts(.pdf) at Cumberland that will make you wonder anew where this is all headed.

Wall Street ❤ Mitt Romney

According to this CNN/Money report, it would appear that Wall Street has a new favorite candidate in 2012 after candidate Barack Obama, back in 2008, raised more money from the financial services industry than any other candidate in history.

New boss, same as the old boss … and the ones before that.

Maybe we’ll get a good third party candidate this year…

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Ben Bernanke Goes to Capitol Hill

Apparently, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke had a fairly interesting visit with elected officials on Capitol Hill today, at least judging by this exchange with Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI).

It’s kind of amazing that, nearly four years after the financial crisis, Fed economists still think that interest rate policy during the housing bubble mania had little or nothing to do with its formation or subsequent bust.

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Hopes Dim for a Grant Fed Chairmanship

With Mitt Romney pulling away from both Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul in their bid for the GOP presidential nomination, hopes are now dimming that Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer will play an important role in the nation’s monetary policy going forward as Grant is increasingly unlikely to either sit on a new Gold Commission (as suggested by Gingrich) or head the Federal Reserve (as Ron Paul recommended), in the latter scenario, perhaps just exchanging dollars for gold under a new gold standard until such time that the central bank can be disbanded. In this report at MarketWatch, Brett Arends fills in the details:

“Unfortunately, I haven’t heard from Mr. Romney yet,” joked Grant when I called on him in his offices down on Wall Street. “I’m sitting by the phone, I’m ready.”

He may have to wait some time. Romney, a conventional Wall Street figure, is unlikely to tap him anytime soon.

He is best known these days — to Gingrich and Paul, among others — for his long-standing support for the gold standard. The world has moved in his direction. In 12 years, gold has risen from a derided relic trading at $250 an ounce to a hot investment at $1,750. Everywhere paper currency systems are under challenge. In 2008, the world discovered that you can’t just manufacture endless wealth out of thin air, as the gold bugs had long argued, and it is still struggling with the realization.

Many people will think of the gold standard as a relic of a bygone era, something as old-fashioned as bow-ties and stuffed animals. (My caveat: To me, that’s not an insult.) Grant, when we met, argued the reverse. He says paper currencies and our current monetary system are the ones that are out of date.

“The anachronism is today’s system,” he says. We have a “command and control, top down” system where the Fed imposes an interest rate on society. The Fed, in other words, tells us what the price of money should be. It is, Grant says, at odds with the modern age. “We live in a world of collaborative social networks” of the Internet and Facebook, of Wikipedia instead of the old World Book, and so on. And yet when it comes to the price of money, we wait for a committee that sits in private to tell us what it should be”.

There’s lots more in this story on Grant’s views of the financial system as currently constructed and what he would do if he were to sit in Ben Bernanke’s chair at the Fed. If you ask me, his gold standard price of $2,500 an ounce for the metal seems a bit low.

More Government Aid for Mortgages?

After many failed attempts, the Obama Administration takes another whack at bolstering the nation’s housing market, this time by offering $5 to $10 billion in government aid for underwater homeowners to refinance their mortgages as detailed in this WSJ report.

On the one hand, you have to feel for homeowners who have continued to make their mortgage payments despite the declining value of their home, but can’t refinance at today’s freakishly low rates. But, on the other hand, you have to scratch your head about the government intervening to create new loans for more than theses homes are worth.

Those worrying about the latter shouldn’t be too concerned, however, as not much is likely to happen in Congress during this increasingly heated election year.

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