REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Loser!

[Skipping ahead to August 2007 when we were also on vacation during the second half of the month and, hence, could find no Jackson Hole material to replay last week, it quickly became clear when looking through the old posts that the housing market  was in very serious trouble, the mainstream media really picking up on the whole idea that maybe the bubbly prices of real estate wouldn't stay elevated forever and that maybe things were going to get ugly out there. First published on August 2, 2007, the story below reminds us all what it was like before things really went south beginning in 2008 -  back in 2007 when everyone's fate had already been determined and the only variable was the timing.]

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You don’t truly understand the psychology behind the housing bubble until you see how dopey some of the participants are and, more surprisingly, how willing they are to share their stories with millions of people.

It’s one thing to lose your shirt, it’s another to tell your story on national TV.

Admittedly, Casey Serin of the now defunct iamfacingforeclosure.com has set the bar quite high, but Bruce Helmprobst turned in a stellar performance on last night’s ABC Evening News, providing another sad example of what happens when our “fifteen minutes of fame” culture in the YouTube era meets up with the latest financial bubble.

Charles Gibson: One reason for the volatility in the market these days are the concerns about the mortgage market. Home foreclosure notices were filed against 573,000 homes in the first half of the year, an increase of 58 percent over last year – devastating for some, opportunity for others. ABC’s Miguel Marquez takes a closer look.

Miquel Marquez: In a sign of how low the housing market here has sunk, Joyce Essex used to make most of her money selling homes. Now, 90 percent of her business comes from handling foreclosures.

Joyce Essex (Realtor, Coldwell Banker): Basically, up to this point, the banks have been able to sell the properties for real retail prices, but just recently, they’re starting to get so many properties that they have to get them off their books.

Marquez: All of last year, Essex handled 16 foreclosures, now she handles one a day.

(more…)

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Dow 200+ Point Days at Dec. 2008 High

The chart below would be far less terrifying if August were almost over, but, since we’re only about half way through and have already seen the most 200+ point days for the Dow in a single month since December of 2008 (when it looked like the global financial system might not survive) many stock investors are probably reaching for the Maalox right about now.

Based on an extrapolation of the 14 days of trading that are already in the books this month, August will equal the volatility seen in October and November of 2008, back when TARP was being debated and implemented, voters were casting their votes to elect a new president, and 200+ point swings for the Dow were the rule, not the exception.

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Home Sales Down, Manufacturing Down

Well, it looks like it’s going to be another one of those days for financial markets, the Dow probably notching its remarkable 8th day of 200+ point swings during just the first 14 trading days of August, that is, unless Fed Chief Ben Bernanke bellies up to a microphone somewhere to commit treason by announcing the launch of a $1.5 trillion QE3 binge.

The July decline of 3.5 percent for existing home sales reported by the National Association of Realtors added to the growing economic gloom as the months of supply metric rose to 9.4 months, almost double what is considered “typical”, that is, if anyone can remember what “typical” is for the U.S. housing market.

Probably more important than the dreary home sales figures were even more dismal numbers on manufacturing in the mid-Atlantic region that saw its sharpest decline since 1998, the Philly Fed manufacturing index sinking from +3.2 in July to -30.7 in August, a gauge where positive and negative numbers indicate expansion and contraction, respectively.

The new orders index plunged from +0.1 to -26.8, unfilled orders fell from -16.3 to -20.9, and employment dropped from +8.9 to -5.2, all signs that the growth slowdown in manufacturing is headed toward outright contraction, a development that could be confirmed in two weeks when the much broader ISM Manufacturing Index is released.

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Perry and Bernanke – Day 3

It has been fascinating to watch the mainstream media attention given to Governor Rick Perry’s comments on Fed Chief Ben Bernanke and his printing press, though, in all the coverage, it would have been worth mentioning that the guy who came in second in the Iowa straw poll (Rep. Ron Paul) wrote an entire book about the central bank (End the Fed).

From the Chris Britt archive at Creators.com.

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I’ve about had it with the inane theory that the lack of aggregate demand is the primary reason why we are now mired in the worst economic slump since the Great Depression. The latest bit of idiocy on the subject was offered up by Reagan/Bush policy adviser Bruce Bartlett in a New York Times commentary today that, when laid side-by-side with some of Paul Krugman’s writing on the subject (see here, here, here) is truly disturbing because, this “lack of aggregate demand” theory courses through all policymaking debate, on both the left and on the right, in Washington and New York.

The theory posits that it is not important what level of overall demand an economy has reached or how it got there, but that, when all the wheels fall off the wagon as they did back in 2008, the imperative is for the government to somehow restore that level of demand.

Otherwise, you get another Great Depression.

It makes no difference if, back in 2005, people making $40,000 a year were buying no money down $500,000 homes and then, after the home’s value went up to $600,000 in 2006, pulling out their $100,000 in brand new home equity to put in a pool, buy a motor home, and install big screen TVs in every room of the house because, once you reach a certain level of demand and it begins to drop like a rock because everyone has become indebted up to their eyeballs, it must be restored.

At that point, it simply becomes a question of how much taxes must be cut or how much money must be borrowed or printed to accomplish that goal.

Whether that level of demand was reasonable never seems to come up and the idea that we’ve come to the end of a 30-year debt binge in all areas of public and private finances – where the accumulated debt can no longer be easily serviced, let alone taking on new debt to fuel more consumption – gets only passing notice.

There are lots more examples of this here, here, here , here, here, here, and here, this unfortunately being another example of how conventional wisdom is often wrong.

A Dying Residential Construction Industry

You’d have to think that, at some point, the Commerce Department is going to lose interest in reporting the monthly housing starts data since, if the graphic below were an EKG, the patient would clearly be dead. Nonetheless, they push on, today’s report(.pdf) indicating that housing starts fell 1.5 percent to an annual rate of 604,000, right around the historically low average level of the last three years since the housing boom went decidedly bust.

Permits for new construction fell 3.2 percent to an annual rate of 597,000, but, nobody really cares.  Of more interest to housing market observers these days is whether wards of the state Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will continue to exist in their current form and if they might someday soon turn into the nation’s largest landlord, renting out the millions of foreclosed homes that they either already own or will take back in the years ahead.

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