FIRE Economy | timiacono.com - Part 4

Almost Total Capitulation

It should be an interesting couple of days in Athens as the Greek people come to understand that the deal Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras brought back from Brussels is worse than the one they rejected ten days ago, a key element being that lawmakers approve it by tomorrow.

The pundits seem to be almost universally pessimistic:

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My guess is that the use of the “a-Greek-ment” contraction by European Council president Donald Tusk is not a good sign for what comes next in today’s Greek debt deal, a deal that is the same or worse than the one the Greek people voted against a week ago.

Markets are rallying on the news – China stocks, U.S. stocks – it’s all good…

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Grisis, Granks Grosed, Grexit Grossible

Just think … someday we’ll be able to have a little chuckle as we look back at the long-running Greek financial crisis and marvel at what policy makers were able to accomplish within a dysfunctional system that should never have allowed Greece to join it, the nation only being able to do so thanks to some Goldman Sachs financial engineering.

From Martin Rowson at The Guardian.

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What Greece Owes the IMF

One of the more interesting graphics about the looming (but, on Tuesday, probably actual) Greek debt default via this item at the Council for Foreign Relations:

Of course, Greece hasn’t defaulted on anything yet and it’s still possible they’ll kick the can down the road again somehow. Nevertheless, this is an impressive pile of debt that will have to be reckoned with someday, perhaps starting tomorrow.

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GDPNow Now Higher for Q2

Not that a growth rate of 2.1 percent for the U.S. economy in the second quarter is anything to write home about (particularly after registering another negative result for the first quarter), but things appear to be looking up a bit here mid-way through 2015 per the latest update of the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now real time economic forecast tool.

It was yesterday’s biggest monthly gain in consumer spending since 2009 that pushed GDPNow over the 2 percent mark for the first time this year. Recall that GDPNow nailed first quarter growth (or the lack thereof) earlier this year when most analysts were expecting a growth rate of somewhere around two percent. It should be interesting to see how this turns out late next month when the advance estimate for Q2 is reported.

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