REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Hat Trick!

[And so we begin with another dive back into the archives while my wife and I consume an inordinate amount of our precious fossil fuels during another trip to the East Coast. This time, writings from the month of April (and maybe early May) over the last six years will be summoned, perhaps offering up a new perspective on our current condition. This first item originally appeared here on April 9th, 2005 and includes now infamous comments by former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan - his lauding of advances in subprime lending...]

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Greenspan Week concluded on Friday when the Chairman spoke about Consumer Finance at the Community Affairs Research Conference in Washington. CNN/Money neatly summarized the message in their headline Greenspan: More credit is a good thing, but they left out the most important, and most disturbing parts of the speech.

For those who say that the Federal Reserve controls interest rates and liquidity only, and that it has little or no influence on where the money goes – read on. Amazingly, in this speech, sub-prime lending is presented as a great success story, not a potential problem – the potential problem, as identified here, is that too many people are being excluded from acquiring credit!

“Where once more-marginal applicants would simply have been denied credit, lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately. These improvements have led to rapid growth in subprime mortgage lending; indeed, today subprime mortgages account for roughly 10 percent of the number of all mortgages outstanding, up from just 1 or 2 percent in the early 1990s.”

So, Ameriquest is good for America – that’s the message.

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Jake over at EconomPicData has come up with a rather stunning chart in this item from the other day following the release of the latest personal income/spending data from the Commerce Department. It seems that if you subtract government transfer payments from income, then the savings rate has been negative for quite some time now.

Recall that this follows news last week (as noted here) that government assistance is now at an all-time high and that wages as a share of income are at their lowest level since record keeping began in 1929. Somehow, none of this seems likely to change anytime soon.

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Still in a Depression?

Here’s another way to look at the Gallup survey data reported yesterday that generated many headlines in the mainstream media and elsewhere, all similar to the one provided by Gallup when they wrote “More Than Half Still Say U.S. Is in Recession or Depression”.

While the idea that more than half of Americans think the economy is still contracting almost two years after the recession ended is significant, what struck me is that few think we ever made the transition out of a depression. As indicated in blue above, from September 2008 to April 2011, this number only dropped from 33 percent to 29 percent

Two Approaches to Avoiding Foreclosure

Having lived nearly all my life in Pennsylvania and California prior to last year settling on Montana for the rest of it, I couldn’t help but notice two very different approaches the states have for helping homeowners avoid foreclosures. First, from MarketWatch comes this story about the remarkable success of a program that’s been in place for over 25 years:

As Republicans try to kill an Obama administration foreclosure prevention program that even Democrats agree hasn’t lived up to expectations, a program in Pennsylvania is being lauded for being simpler, cheaper and more effective.

It’s called the Pennsylvania Homeowners Emergency Mortgage Assistance Program and was established in 1984, long before the recent mortgage crisis. The program gives bridge loans to people who have recently lost their jobs. Loans do not accrue interest until the participant’s income is restored.

But, in the Golden State there is now a very different approach being talked about in Sacramento, details provided in this report at the Wall Street Journal Real Estate blog:

Some California lawmakers, supported by unions and left-leaning activist groups, have an idea to help stem the flow of foreclosures: Charge banks $20,000 every time they want to foreclose on a home.

The proposed new fee, which has been dubbed a “Foreclosure Mitigation Fee,” would offset the roughly $19,229 in costs for property maintenance, inspections, increased police and other public safety presence and lost property tax revenues from each blighted foreclosure.

My guess is that, if enacted, the California program will have poor results over the long-term, however, that hasn’t stopped the legislature before, so, there’s little reason to think that it would now.

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Rep Ron Paul (R-TX), who appears to gearing up for another presidential bid, was on Fox News to talk about raising the debt ceiling and today’s big Federal Reserve press conference.

Here’s his question for the Fed Chairman:

I would ask him where he gets the authority to print money out of thin air because it’s not in the constitution and that’s the basic problem. The Fed creates the problem because it serves the Congress. They spend too much money on militarism and welfarism, so, we borrow and we tax, but then the Fed prints the money. So, they’ll never get the budget under control as long as you have the Fed monetizing debt and he has to someday understand that – which he won’t – so, someday we’ll have to change the system.

Case-Shiller Home Prices Fall in February

Standard & Poor’s reported home prices continued to fall in February, down a whopping 1.1 percent on an unadjusted basis but just  0.2 percent lower when seasonal factors are taken into account. As would be expected, the year-over-year changes for the raw vs. adjusted data are almost identical – down 3.3 percent from  a year ago – but there’s quite a difference between the two data sets on a monthly basis as shown below.

Note: This chart should be alternating between two data sets – if it’s not go here.

Not surprisingly, the Washington D.C. area housing market is booming (right along with the level of deficit spending) and it was the only housing market to see price increases last month (up 0.2 percent SA) and from a year ago (up 2.7 percent). Elsewhere, home values are about back to the 2009 low with prices in Atlanta, Cleveland, Las Vegas, and Detroit now below the level seen in 2000 with Phoenix likely to join that group in the months ahead.

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