REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

A Few Thoughts on the Housing Market

Jon Lansner of the Orange County Register, one of the early housing bubble bloggers as some people called us back around the middle of the last decade, is looking back on his five years of writing about the local and national housing market and has asked a few of his contemporaries for their thoughts on the subject here in 2011.

Below are his questions and my answers, some or all of which will appear at Jon’s blog and in the print edition of the paper sometime in the next week or two:

1. What has real estate blogging done for the housing market in terms of getting news and views out to the public? Has that changed in recent years?

For those searching on the internet for information about housing, it’s relatively easy to find material written by bloggers, however, as opposed to back around 2006 when just a few of us were writing about the “housing bubble”, today, you are more likely to find one of the many blogs written by those in the real estate industry, from whom you may get a different perspective on market conditions since, after all, they are in the business of selling houses.

It would also appear that those real estate sales types who do offer their thoughts online today have a better understanding of how the internet works. It’s funny to think back about those first “housing bubble denier” blogs written by real estate sales folks five or six years ago and how dreadfully misplaced their optimism was.

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The FCIC, the Fed, and Shadow Banking

The usually chatty former Fed Chief Alan Greenspan has been noticeably silent about the report issued by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commision whose finger was pointed squarely in his direction, one of the reasons being the first chart in the report as shown below.

Those of you who were watching this mess unfold about five years ago no doubt remember how, at the time, Greenspan assured elected officials that banks were well capitalized with nary a distressed asset on the horizon. But, that’s not where the action was. The dramatic rise of the shadow banking system, detectable in gross terms as early as 2005, was where the trouble was, what you’d think would be of interest to the world’s most important banker, if for no other reason than that it was the Federal Reserve that collects this data.

Whatever Gets You Through the Day…

When documenting the early-21st century decline of the American Empire, future historians are surely going to have a good time poking fun at the conventional wisdom at the time that a pure-fiat money system was sustainable and the increasingly tortured rationale provided to justify that belief, in the process, perhaps recalling the words of Michael Gold in the Big Chill who famously said, “I don’t know anyone who could get through the day without two or three juicy rationalizations. They’re more important than sex.”

Said tortured rationale these days seems to revolve around the idea that debt, deficits, money printing, and all sorts of other activity that is either ill-advised or illegal for American citizens is just fine for the U.S. government, that is, so long as the consumer price index stays low. In this interview at The Gold Report, Marshall Auerback explains:

As far as government deficits go, what we argue is that there are no financial constraints—there is a real resource constraint. In other words, inflation is the ultimate constraint. We shouldn’t be constructing fiscal policy with some sort of vague, undefined notion that it’s fiscally sustainable. Nor should we define “fiscal sustainability” via some arbitrary number as Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart have done in their recent book, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, wherein they say if a debt-to-GDP ratio gets above 90%, then bad things start to happen.

Under the type of regime we have in Canada or the U.S., there is no inherent reason why any level of government spending should be fiscally unsustainable over a longer period.

It’s counterintuitive to the extent that we normally compare government spending to household spending. People say we can’t spend beyond our means, and that way of thinking fits into people’s own intuitive experience. But you and I are not the same as a government. A government is a monopoly. It’s controlling the currency. If you and I had printing presses in our basements and we were able to print $20,000 whenever we needed, we wouldn’t be debt constrained in the same way that private businesses or individuals are today. Clearly, a government is in a unique position because it’s the only entity that issues currency and, in effect, creates new net financial assets. The household analogy breaks down because we fail to distinguish between users and issuers of currency.

I’ll never come around to this way of thinking, the most important reason being that I understand how fatally flawed the U.S. consumer price index is in this context, namely, that it has been artificially low for two decades or more as a result of cheap imported goods and other factors that make it a particularly dangerous basket to put all your eggs in.

Headline/Photo Combo of the Year

It’s early, but this USA Today story about the upcoming Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission report is the clear front-runner for best financial headline/photo combination of 2011.

I’m sure the former Fed Chairman formerly known as ‘Maestro’ is already working on his defense, to be aired quite publicly in the days ahead by financial news outlets.

New Home Sales “Surge” From Record Lows

The Commerce Department reported(.pdf) that new home sales rose 17.5 percent in December, up from an annual rate of 280,000 in November to 329,000, but, the increase comes from near record low levels, meaning that, this surge doesn’t amount to much.

As shown above, new home sales are just a tiny fraction of what they were a few years ago, now running at about a third of the historical average as distressed property sales at much lower prices are expected to dampen demand for new homes for the foreseeable future.

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The Mess That Greenspan Made, Apparently

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission will release its full report on the causes of the financial crisis tomorrow, but, based on those who have had an advance look at their work, it seems they have a finger pointed squarely at former Fed Chief Alan Greenspan who is sure to pop up again in the financial media to defend himself. That should be fun. In this report at the New York Times, Sewell Chan provides the following details:

The 2008 financial crisis was an “avoidable” disaster caused by widespread failures in government regulation, corporate mismanagement and heedless risk-taking by Wall Street, according to the conclusions of a federal inquiry.

The commission that investigated the crisis casts a wide net of blame, faulting two administrations, the Federal Reserve and other regulators for permitting a calamitous concoction: shoddy mortgage lending, the excessive packaging and sale of loans to investors and risky bets on securities backed by the loans.

“The greatest tragedy would be to accept the refrain that no one could have seen this coming and thus nothing could have been done,” the panel wrote in the report’s conclusions, which were read by The New York Times. “If we accept this notion, it will happen again.”

The majority report finds fault with two Fed chairmen: Alan Greenspan, who led the central bank as the housing bubble expanded, and his successor, Ben S. Bernanke, who did not foresee the crisis but played a crucial role in the response. It criticizes Mr. Greenspan for advocating deregulation and cites a “pivotal failure to stem the flow of toxic mortgages” under his leadership as a “prime example” of negligence.

Like Mr. Bernanke, Mr. Bush’s Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr., predicted in 2007 – wrongly, it turned out – that the subprime collapse would be contained, the report notes.

The FCIC report (backed mostly by Democrats on the panel) nearly exonerates government support for housing via Fannie, Freddie, and various home ownership initiatives and the Fed’s low post-2001 interest rates also escaped blame.. Of course, Republicans have different ideas about the former and, as to the latter, it seems the great debate about whether interest rates were “too low for too long” is nowhere near being settled.

© 2010-2011 The Mess That Greenspan Made