REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Making a Mess of Things in Europe

It’s funny that, in just the last five days when yours truly was away on a trip to Pennsylvania and New York City (including the two-day weekend), the European debt deal all came together and now it looks as though it’s all falling apart.

From the “comprehensive settlement” that was struck while I was flying to Philadelphia on Thursday, a day that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average soar almost 400 points, to the 500+ point drop that has occurred since yesterday morning as the Greeks have cast everything in doubt with their announcement of a referendum on the recently passed austerity measures that, if nothing else, will create a two-month period of uncertainty about whether Greece will leave the monetary union.

Today is Mario Draghi’s first day as the head of the European Central Bank and, while, he probably thought he’d have some early challenges, he probably didn’t think that this “curve-ball” from the Greek government would be one of them.

Now, anyone thinking that last week’s deal would be the end of the sovereign debt crisis was surely deluding themselves, but, conventional wisdom was that this would be another in a long series of kicks to the can that would push it down the road far enough for everyone to breath easy for at least a month or two.

As it stands, it looks like the Greek government will again run out of money right around the time of the referendum vote in January and, given the new uncertainty, MF Global could be just the first in a series of dominoes to fall that could produce a year-end financial market environment that is radically different than the one we thought we’d see just two days ago.

Even gold is selling off a bit today, but, as is usually the case at times like this, the metal is proving to be much more resilient than most other assets.

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Seven Billion and Counting

Oh Dear. It looks like Europe is falling apart again as the Greeks and Germans again bicker about money. I’d be curious to know if, throughout history, there have ever been any successful marriages between people from these two countries as they seem to be about as far apart as you can get on how to spend money. My recent trip back to Pennsylvania reminded me of my family’s German-Italian ancestry that has some pretty big cultural divides, but the Greeks apparently take spendthriftiness to a completely different level.

Anyway, look for our collective money troubles to get worse before they get better as global population continues to grow, yesterday marking an important milestone of 7 billion.

There are many more interesting ways to look at this subject including this neat graphic at The Economist and many more YouTube videos since people starting talking about this a year ago in preparation for the big 7 billion event.

This graphics overload from National Geographic was particularly good.

“Sell Everything Immediately … Quickly”

In light of what’s been going on in Europe over the last few days, perhaps it’s worth reviewing this Clark and Dawe video from last year on the area’s sovereign debt crisis.

Since this was originally aired, it would appear that about the only things that have changed are the actual debt totals for each nation and my guess is that they’ve all probably gone up.

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A “Sustainable Path for Greece”?

The Greek sovereign debt crisis, now rapidly approaching its two-year anniversary later this year, has resulted in a second major bailout of about $160 billion for the wayward eurozone nation as described by European Union leaders late yesterday.

Based on the details of the deal provided in this Reuters report, it’s a rather complicated agreement that may or may not result in credit agencies declaring Greece to be in some form of default on its debt. Fitch ratings said they expect to assign a new “post-default” rating of “low speculative-grade” to their bonds, if and when all the dust settles.

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Greece Week – Part II

It will be another week of market moving developments in Greece as legislators debate the austerity measures that the EU/ECB approved last week, steps deemed necessary to secure another $150 billion or so of funding that the Greek government can not obtain elsewhere, unless they want to pay punishing interest rates.

Of course, the locals were out protesting over the weekend and that is likely to continue in the days ahead, their argument being that a default (and an exit from the Euro system that would likely follow) would be better than the austerity measures being debated this week.

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What Doesn’t Kill You Makes You Stronger?

Der Spiegel reports on how Greek society is adapting to the many “austerity measures” that have been enacted in recent months. It sounds as though the painful (yet much needed) lowered expectations of what government can and should provide are well underway.

The austerity measures that were supposed to fix Greece’s problems are dragging down the country’s economy. Stores are closing, tax revenues are falling and unemployment has hit an unbelievable 70 percent in some places. Frustrated workers are threatening to strike back.

The government’s draconian austerity measures have managed to reduce the country’s budget deficit by an almost unbelievable 39.7 percent, after previous governments had squandered tax money and falsified statistics for years. The measures have reduced government spending by a total of 10 percent, 4.5 percent more than the EU and International Monetary Fund (IMF) had required.

The problem is that the austerity measures have in the meantime affected every aspect of the country’s economy. Purchasing power is dropping, consumption is taking a nosedive and the number of bankruptcies and unemployed are on the rise. The country’s gross domestic product shrank by 1.5 percent in the second quarter of this year. Tax revenue, desperately needed in order to consolidate the national finances, has dropped off. A mixture of fear, hopelessness and anger is brewing in Greek society.

They go on to provide a number of anecdotal accounts about how life has changed for both individuals and communities with conditions not likely to improve any time soon given that massive layoffs are expected this fall.

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