REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Rogers and Roubini on the Euro Bailout

Bloomberg reports that famed investor Jim Rogers and NYU professor Nouriel Roubini are none-too-pleased with the $1 trillion bailout aimed at rescuing wayward European nations.

Investor Jim Rogers said Europe’s bailout of indebted nations to overcome the sovereign-debt crisis is just “another nail in the coffin” for the euro as higher spending increases the region’s debt.

“I was stunned,” Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Singapore. “This means that they’ve given up on the euro, they don’t particularly care if they have a sound currency, you have all these countries spending money they don’t have and it’s now going to continue.”

New York University professor Nouriel Roubini said Greece and other “laggards” in the euro area may be forced to abandon the common currency in the next few years to spur their economies. The euro will remain the currency for a smaller number of countries that have “stronger fiscal and economic fundamentals,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

All paper currencies are being “debased,” with the euro currency union at risk of being “dissolved,” Rogers said, adding that he continues to own the dollar, the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen and the euro.“It’s a political currency and nobody is minding the economics behind the necessities to have a strong currency,” Rogers said. “I’m afraid it’s going to dissolve. They’re throwing more money at the problem and it’s going to make things worse down the road.”

Not long ago, Rogers praised efforts by euro zone leaders to enforce budget restraint that is otherwise unheard of in the West. Now, it appears as though the ECB and the EU are no different than the U.K. and the U.S. in that more easy money is viewed as the solution to problems caused by easy money.

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Some Krazy Glue for Greece?

Spotted over at Jesse Felder’s blog along with links to today’s news that included Kanellos the Greek Protest Dog, a story that really should be getting a lot more attention…

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Kanellos, the Greek Protest Dog

One of the constants in the regular Greek demonstrations that have been going on for months now has been a yellowish canine named Kanellos who, apparently, doesn’t mind loud noises and isn’t too keen on the government’s austerity measures.

There are a couple of related reports here and here where it is learned that this is not the original Kanellos but, rather, a dog that looks a lot like another protest dog named Kanellos who died sometime last year. It is unclear whether the Riot Dog Facebook page refers to the old Kanellos, the new Kanellos, or both.

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And … We Are Back

A bit battered and bruised, we made it to our new home in one piece and now have enough boxes emptied out and sufficient pathways cleared throughout our new rental unit that things are beginning to return to normal.

Did I miss anything?

Actually, the emptied truck was returned on Wednesday, so, yesterday we got to sit around and watch all the Greek and Wall Street madness play out on CNBC and Bloomberg.

That was pretty nuts if you ask me – I thought Jim Cramer and Erin Burnett were going to have kittens right there on the set. The fact that we got four inches of snow yesterday made the day all the more surreal – the snow is now gone but something tells me that the impact of yesterday’s financial market goings-on will linger for some time.

Anyway, by the start of next week, things should be back to a “new normal” here at the blog. Not having lived in anything other than the Pacific Time Zone for the last 30 years, everything happening an hour later (except for network TV shows) is a little odd.

The Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations has been at it for almost five hours now, not yet done with just the first of three panels on today’s Goldman Sachs hearings. Lloyd Blankfein is on the third panel, so, hopefully he brought an overnight bag. As for the other big news of the day, this item in Der Spiegel is quite critical of the fatherland for their role in the ongoing meltdown otherwise known as the country of Greece.

The Greeks are mainly responsible for their current predicament. But the German government has made the country’s situation worse with its lectures and reluctance to provide assistance. Chancellor Angela Merkel is mainly to blame for the fact that German taxpayers now have to suffer.

On the one side there are the Greeks, who clearly still do not have their financial statistics under control and who produce one false report after another about the country’s budget deficit. On the other side are the Germans, who delight in hindering a rapid and unambiguous European response to the Greek crisis — in the process driving the cost of a solution through the roof.

At the same time, it is striking just how many representatives of the parties in Germany’s coalition government are giving advice to the Greeks, ranging from drastic pay cuts to an immediate declaration of insolvency right up to a swift withdrawal from the euro zone. These observers base their verbal radicalism on the noble economic argument that Greece needs to be made “fit for the financial markets” once again. Another, less sophisticated, argument goes that the vast majority of Germans are unwilling, after years of limiting their own consumption, to make financial sacrifices to help out Greece.

Both Greece’s calculation errors and the diva-like reluctance of the German government to help Athens are nothing more than an invitation to speculators to bet on the demise of the southern European country.

Can you imagine what things would be like in Europe right now if the British had decided to join the currency union back in the 1990s when they had the opportunity?

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The Ongoing Trouble in Europe

[The following commentary is from the companion investment website Iacono Research. Apparently, I'm a little more sanguine than many others about the prospects for Europe.]

It was another tumultuous week in Europe but one that, in my view, increased the odds of the common currency surviving over the long-term and carried valuable lessons about what can and should be done in other Western nations such as the U.S. and the U.K. where similar structural budget problems continue to fester.

Early in the week, Fitch Ratings downgraded Portugal sovereign debt and, in the absence of any news flow in the run-up to a meeting of the EU (European Union) on Thursday, the euro tumbled to an 11-month low. The ratings agency warned that another downgrade for Portugal could follow and it looked rather bleak for the “single unit” until an agreement was struck between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy on terms of a bailout for Greece, should one be required, that included support from the IMF (International Monetary Fund).

Like Greece, Portugal is struggling with large budget deficits, large trade deficits, and continuing economic contraction that has led to high unemployment, though none of these conditions are as bad as their Aegean neighbor to the East is now seeing. With budget fixes not coming fast enough to bring their deficit below the euro zone limit of 3 percent by 2013, Fitch lowered their sovereign debt rating to AA-minus, just above the BBB-plus for Greece, the lowest in the euro zone. In a statement, Fitch noted, “The planned deficit adjustment is back-loaded and the risk of macroeconomic disappointment … is significant”.

While this came at an unfortunate time, just as EU leaders were dealing with new concerns about Greek debt, it was not a surprise as the Portuguese government has struggled in making necessary spending cuts and, importantly, this will not be the last of the debt downgrades in the region.

(more…)

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