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Some Disturbing Labor Market Data Points

In the wake of Friday’s dismal labor report that dismal scientists across the country shrugged off as a one-off event come a couple of interesting (and pretty disconcerting) data points for the U.S. labor market that appeared on the intertubes this morning.

First, from this item at David Stockman’s Contra Corner blog comes the chart below showing what U.S. nonfarm payrolls look like without what can only be described as a more than decade long education and health care (mostly the latter) jobs juggernaut.

In short, while the U.S. population has increased by more than 30 million over the last 14 years, there have been no net-job gains in the U.S. labor force when  health care and education workers are removed from the totals, what Stockman calls “a fatuous shibboleth”.

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The Labor Department reported that U.S. employers added 209,000 jobs in July and prior months were revised slightly higher as the unemployment rate rose from 6.1 percent to 6.2 percent, due largely to people entering the labor force but not being able to find work.

In a separate report from the Institute for Supply Management, the broadest measure of the nation’s manufacturing sector showed strong growth last month as the Purchasing Managers Index rose from 55.3 in June to 57.1 in July, the highest level since April 2011.

The key new orders index jumped from 58.9 to 63.4, the best reading of the year, and the employment index rose from 52.8 to 58.2, the best reading in over two years.

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The Labor Department reported that U.S. employers added a better-than-expected 288,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate fell from 6.3 percent to 6.1 percent, a six year low.

Payrolls for April and May were revised upward by a combined 29,000 and April’s revised gain of 304,000 marked the biggest increase in jobs in two and a half years. After a dismal winter when payrolls increased by an average of just 150,000, the last three months have seen average gains of 272,000.

The household survey also showed marked improvement as the jobless rate fell for all the right reasons, though the labor force participation rate was unchanged near multi-decade lows at 62.8 percent. Some 407,000 people were newly counted as employed and the official count of “unemployed” Americans fell by 325,000.

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Now that the U.S. team has been eliminated from the World Cup, we ‘Mericans can focus on what we really do best – inflating asset bubbles – and that effort should be bolstered by what is shaping up to be a big number in the nonfarm payrolls data due out from the Labor Department on Thursday, just prior to the nation celebrating its 238th birthday on Friday.

From these two reports at Gallup come the charts below indicating all systems are go.

Of course, it doesn’t hurt that payroll processor ADP reported earlier today that the private sector added 281,000 jobs last month, the biggest job creation total since November 2012.

This should be much more fun than watching soccer…

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