REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Dylan Grice On When To Sell Your Gold

Via this item at Business Insider and this one at BullionVault come some much needed words of reassurance for precious metals investors (it’s been another rough week) from Société Générale strategist Dylan Grice:

Some would say the time to sell gold is now… Gold just isn’t the misunderstood, widely shunned asset it was a few years ago. Isn’t the bull market now long in the tooth, with better opportunities to be found elsewhere?

The reason I own gold is because I’m worried about the long-term solvency of developed market governments.

Eventually, there will be a crisis of such magnitude that the political winds change direction, and become blustering gales forcing us onto the course of fiscal sustainability. Until it does, the temptation to inflate will remain, as will economists with spurious mathematical rationalisations as to why such inflation will make everything OK (witness the IMF’s recent recommendation that inflation targets be raised to 4%: IMF Tells Bankers to Rethink Inflation – WSJ). Until it does, the outlook will remain favorable for gold. But eventually, majority opinion will accept the painful contractionary medicine because it will have to. That will be the time to sell gold.

Grice also gets in a in a jab or two at economists:

…economists look down on disciplines which might teach them it, such as history, because they aren’t mathematical enough. True, historians don’t use maths (primarily because they don’t have physics envy) but what they do use is common sense, and an understanding that while the economic laws might hold in the long run, in the short run the political beast must be fed.

I don’t know about you, but I feel much better now…







The week is not starting out well for the yellow metal, but, as anyone who has owned gold and/or silver for more than a few  years surely realizes, this is a marathon, not a sprint, and confusing the two can really hurt your bottom line. Another reminder of the secular nature of rising gold prices comes via the infographic below from Gold Bullion International:

Click to enlarge and, just in case there was any doubt, to learn the answer to the question.

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Warren Buffett Priced in Gold

Via this item at the azizanomics blog the other day comes another way to look at Warren Buffett’s recent comments about “valueless” gold in the depiction of Berkshire Hathaway stock priced in the yellow metal.

I’d have to agree with the chart’s creator John Aziz when he notes:

Warren Buffett had a great ride: he grew his wealth and businesses in an era of unprecedented growth powered by OPEC oil, and later by Chinese industrialism. That era — the era of the American free lunch — is coming to an end. His insights are applicable to that era. Today is a different world.

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More on Warren Buffett and Gold

Max Keiser talks to Ned Naylor Leyland of Cheviot Asset Management about why Warren Buffett hates gold after the “Oracle of Omaha” devoted a considerable portion of his recent shareholders letter(.pdf) to discuss why the metal is not worth owning.

Among the many other interesting things you’ll learn from Ned is that Warren Buffett’s father was the “Ron Paul of his day”, meaning that, Buffett the Younger’s views toward the yellow metal are likely something he didn’t learn at home.

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Gold and Silver Prices Plunge

I guess I’d be a little concerned if the gold price wasn’t still up almost 10 percent for the year and if silver wasn’t still up more than double that amount. Nonetheless, profit taking apparently snowballed after Fed Chief Ben Bernanke failed to even mention the idea that the central bank was prepared to print more money for the greater good if the need arose.

Now, clearly, if you were looking to buy precious metals over the last six months or so, the first of the year was the time to do so, but, there seemed to be plenty of buyers stepping in there at the end of the day as the gold price is now back up to $1,705 an ounce. The GLD ETF added 10 tonnes to its holdings this afternoon and China’s central bankers were surely pleased to see today’s developments, probably adding to their stash of gold bars once again when Western traders pushed prices lower.

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I’ve never been a big believer in the idea that the world’s increasingly shaky monetary system will someday be replaced by some sort of new gold standard (that would be a huge admission of failure by the world’s plutocrats and some form of global money based on a basket of commodities and national currencies – that the world’s plutocrats would also control – is much more likely), but, if a gold standard does return, we’ll all probably look back at today’s news that Iran is now accepting gold in exchange for its oil as an important development in that process. The BBC filed this report on the subject earlier today:

Iran is to accept gold instead of dollars as payment for its oil, the country’s state news agency has said.

The move comes as US and European Union sanctions against Iran have made it difficult for buyers to make dollar payments to Iranian banks.

Mahmoud Bahmani, the governor of Iran’s central bank, is reported to have said that the country would accept payment in gold “without any reservation”.

Iran has the world’s third-largest oil reserves. Crude oil is predominantly traded in US dollars, but Iran already accepts payment in other currencies.

Likely related to this announcement comes word in this WSJ story($) about the U.S. Treasury Department interceding to stop a Dubai based bank from supporting Iranian oil sales by helping the nation evade international sanctions that were put in place to pressure Iran to give up its nuclear weapons program.

According to the report, Noor Islamic Bank, partly owned by the city of Dubai and run by Sheikh Ahmed, the son of Duabai’s ruler, was believed to have handled as much as 60 percent of Iran’s oil sales last year totaling nearly $50 billion.

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