REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Retirement Confidence At Record Lows

Some highlights from the Employee Benefits Research Institute’s Retirement Confidence Survey in which we find Americans as ill-equipped as ever to enter their golden years:

Many workers report they have virtually no savings and investments. In total, 60 percent of workers report that the total value of their household’s savings and investments, excluding the value of their primary home and any defined benefit plans, is less than $25,000.

Although 56 percent of workers expect to receive benefits from a defined benefit plan in retirement, only 33 percent report that they and/or their spouse currently have such a benefit with a current or previous employer.

That second one is kind of a shocker, that is, unless those 23 percent of respondents who said there were going to receive a pension but didn’t have a pension retirement plan thought they were being asked about social security.

And this chart says a lot about how the fortunes of aspiring retirees are changing:

Retirement Confidence

That area circled in red has gone from around 50 percent to 60 percent over the last ten years and will likely continue to go higher in the years ahead as long as Ben Bernanke is running the Federal Reserve and savers continue to be punished.

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Not Redefining Rich

The first part of this Gallup survey addresses the level of annual income Americans would need to consider themselves “rich”, a question that, at least by most definitions of the word (i.e., relating to wealth, not income), doesn’t make sense. But, the second poll asking what net worth would be required to qualify as “rich” had more interesting results:

A surprising 74 percent of those polled think that, if you’ve reached the one million dollar mark you are “rich” and, even more surprisingly, this hasn’t changed in seven years since the last time this survey was conducted.

It strikes me that, either one of these polls was somehow flawed or people really don’t understand what has been happening to their money – even using the government’s dubious inflation statistics, $1 million in 2003 is now worth almost $1.25 million today, meaning that there should have been a sizeable shift upward in the survey results.

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For Retirement, 80 is the new 65?

In another sign that Americans are ill-prepared to enjoy what have always been thought of as “golden years”, according to a new Wells Fargo survey, some 25 percent of aspiring middle class retirees don’t think they’ll be able to quit working until they’re 80 years old.

The concept of a “retirement age” is going the way of the typewriter, another 20th-century relic that has been made irrelevant by changing circumstances. Middle class Americans now expect to work until they have saved enough to afford to retire, according to results from the seventh annual Retirement Survey from Wells Fargo & Company.

Three fourths (76%) of the 1,500 middle class Americans surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive in August and September 2011 say it is more important to have a specific amount saved before retirement, regardless of age, while only 20% say it is more important to retire at a specific age, regardless of savings.

The survey also found:

• A quarter (25%) of middle class Americans say they will “need to work until at least age 80” to live comfortably in retirement
• Three-fourths (74%) of middle class Americans expect to work in their retirement years, including 39% of all respondents who will need to work to make ends meet or maintain their lifestyles, while 35% say they will work because they want to, rather than out of financial need.
• Among middle class Americans age 40 to 59, 54% say they will “need to work,” compared to 34% of those age 25 to 39. Accordingly, only 25% of those between the ages of 40 and 59 say they will work in retirement because they “want to,” versus 45% of Americans between the ages of 25 and 39.

There’s lots more thoroughly depressing data in this survey, not the least of which is that almost 40 percent of respondents have “no fears” about retirement because “it will work itself out”. For about 90 percent of this group, it probably won’t.

Also, Americans have saved only $25,000 of an estimated $350,000 they’ll need to retire comfortably with almost a third of those in their 60s having saved less than $25,000.

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Touching the Third Rail

A quick survey of what cartoonists have been thinking about lately reveals that Governor Rick Perry’s comments on how social security is a Ponzi scheme have been quite popular.

From the Signe Wilkinson archive at the Philadelphia Inquirer.

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The Public Pension Problem Grows

Today’s news brings word that public and private pensions are having more problems, the one-two punch of an increasingly volatile stock market and the Fed’s two-year freakishly low interest rate guarantee making a bad situation even worse.

Reuters provides details on the perils of fund manager “de-risking” in this report and the dismal options for Rhode Island retirees are laid out in this Washington Post story.

State Treasurer Gina M. Raimondo (D) said that per capita, Rhode Island has the nation’s largest unfunded pension liability. But if the Ocean State’s pension problem is among the country’s most severe, so are the remedies being considered to solve it.

An ongoing pension reform effort is likely to result in reduced benefits for 51,000 public workers and retirees. Officials are pondering lowering retirement payments, replacing part of the guaranteed pensions with 401(k)-type accounts, and sharply reducing generous cost-of-living increases enjoyed by retirees. The Rhode Island legislature is expected to consider changes next month during a special session.

Until recently, most states, including Virginia and Maryland, have attacked their pension problems by cutting benefits for new hires while preserving retirement packages for current employees. Others have rolled over their pension debt by taking out loans or papering them over with what some have called unrealistic projections about investment earning and life expectancy.

But with states facing, by one estimate, a combined $3 trillion in unfunded pension liabilities and the economic downturn continuing to dampen government tax revenue, states are beginning to make changes once considered unthinkable — such as cutting pensions for people in retirement.

The “pension envy” felt by many people in the country should begin to lessen in the years ahead as early-retirees from the public sector are slowly squeezed in a multitude of different ways, none of which will be fun. Then, again, what they have will still be far better than that which is available to most retirees and aspiring retirees in the private sector.

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A Bad Day in Central Falls, RI

Yesterday wasn’t a good day for pensioners in Central Falls, Rhode Island as the city filed for federal bankruptcy protection after retirees voted down massive cuts to their pensions.

There are shades of the housing bubble bust here, in that, people believed the unbelievable. A few years ago it was that home prices would rise in perpetuity and that we’d all be wealthy forever. Today, it’s the notion that governments can make good on the generous public sector retirement packages they’ve promised over the years.

You have to feel former fireman Donald Cardin as his retirement check is about to get cut in half while his wife is suffering from cancer. Then again, counting on keeping a generous pension for the rest of your life after retiring in your early-40s is about as sound a plan as expecting your home equity to pay for your kids’ education and fund your golden years.

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